Should We Brace for More Civil Unrest?
Johnathan Tal
SECURITY CONSULTING AND RISK MANAGEMENT | Chief Executive Officer of TAL Global | Board Member at Qylur Intelligent Systems | Risk Management | Executive Protection | Investigations
With the recent history of mass shootings and civil unrest in the United States, many wonder what our future holds. Should we be bracing ourselves for more civil unrest in the months to come? Unfortunately, the answer appears to be yes.?
According to a study conducted by Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS), one of the world’s largest financial services providers based in Munich, Germany, things are looking unsettling – to say the least – in the months and years to come.??
According to the report, strikes, riots, and violent protests are likely to increase in many parts of the world. This unrest is expected to pose risks to companies “because, in addition to material damage to buildings or assets, business operations can be disrupted, resulting in loss of income.”?
The report concludes that “civil unrest increasingly represents a more critical exposure for many companies than terrorism.” Incidents of civil unrest, adds Srdjan Todorovic, head of crisis management for AGCS in the United Kingdom, “are unlikely to abate anytime soon, given the aftershocks of COVID-19, the cost-of-living crisis, and the ideological shifts that continue to divide societies around the world.
“Businesses need to be alert to any suspicious indicators and designate clear pathways for de-escalation and response, which anticipate and avert the potential for personnel to be injured and damage to business and private property.”?
The United Nations agrees with the study’s conclusion. It warns that there is an increasing risk of destabilization in many parts of the world due to disrupted supply chains, spiking prices for food, fuel, and fertilizer, as well as many repercussions stemming from the war in Ukraine.?
For instance, most European countries are still unsure whether they will or will not get gas and oil from Russia to meet their needs. Further, what many of us are just now learning is that Ukraine produces about 30 percent of the world’s wheat supply. The Russians are interrupting that supply. This is likely to not only increase food prices around the globe but also cause famine in poorer areas of the world.
“All of this is planting the seeds for political instability and unrest around the globe,” said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in March.
As to where all this civil unrest will be occurring, the Civil Unrest Index says at least seventy-five countries will see an uptick in unrest starting as early as August 2022. These include the following:
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Surprisingly, the list also includes countries that have historically been known for their economic and collective stability. These include:
What About the U.S.?
As you already know, civil unrest has increased in the United States, especially since the pandemic. In the second quarter of 2020, the U.S. was listed 91st on the Civil Unrest Index. This means there were 90 countries experiencing more civil unrest than the U.S. By the fourth quarter of 2020, the U.S. was ranked 34th. That is, only 33 countries were then experiencing more civil unrest than the U.S.?
In America most of this unrest is occurring in the corridor from Washington, DC, to Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, Miami, and San Francisco.?
So, it appears much of the world, including the United States, may have some tumultuous months and years ahead. More specifically, American police authorities are increasingly concerned about the elections in 2022 and 2024.?
Although we can’t control every situation, what we can do to the best of our ability is protect ourselves, our companies, and the people working for our companies.
A competently conducted risk assessment brings in highly skilled professionals to analyze a facility from top to bottom, looking for a building’s weak spots and potential hazards, and to review company security policies and procedures. Next, it suggests ways to eliminate, reduce, and control risk.
It’s a proactive approach to facility and personnel security that many organizations may need more now than ever before.
For more than 28 years, TAL Global has been working with organizations all over the world to help keep them safe.? If you’d like to improve and enhance the safety of your facility and organization, let’s talk.