Shorting on blockchain predictions (2023)

A tale of convergence

Well it has been a while, but it's time to write again. Perhaps on one of my favourite topics: trends & technologies with a short term impact (or how to be a "vigilant leader", as Stijn Viaene would state). This article is on that account somewhat special, as more than ever it'll focus on "converging technologies".

Although we've trained our brain to translate coexistence into correlations where there are none (like "BTC was brought to live as a reaction to the financial crisis"), evolutions happening at the same time could for sure reinforce each other. Or weaken the impact. Faster horses wouldn't have stopped the automotive industry. So let's take a look at a major trend today, located alas outside the blockchain space, and the impact it has.

A long time ago, when I was working at The Studio from Belfius, I had many pleasant and open conversations with Jér?me Fortias . I can't imagine anyone more knowledgeable about AI, and many other related (converging) technologies. An ever curious mind who sharpened my interest in AI, but quite often we discussed about (enterprise) blockchain and AI.

So today while I should be thinking about trends and evolutions for blockchain in 2023, I decided to formulate it as a question and toss it to ChatGPT. Below its answer, below that my thoughts and concerns.

Some predAIctions

Question: "Please describe and explain the top 5 predictions for blockchain in 2023"

Answer: (I've added some structure)

1) Increased adoption and integration of blockchain technology in various industries

As blockchain technology matures and its potential benefits become more widely recognized, it is likely that more and more industries will begin to adopt and integrate it into their operations. This could include the financial sector, where blockchain-based solutions could potentially improve the speed and efficiency of transactions, as well as supply chain management, where blockchain could be used to create tamper-proof records of the movement of goods.

2) Development of more advanced and secure blockchain platforms

Blockchain technology is still relatively new and there is ongoing research and development to improve its capabilities. In 2023, it's expected that more advanced and secure blockchain platforms will be developed that incorporate new technologies such as quantum resistance to protect the network from quantum computing attacks.

3) Continued growth of the cryptocurrency market

The market for cryptocurrencies has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to continue to do so in the coming years. As more individuals, institutions, and businesses begin to recognize the potential of digital assets, the demand for them is likely to increase, which could drive further growth in the market.

4) Emergence of new use cases for blockchain technology

Blockchain technology has the potential to be used in a wide variety of applications beyond just digital currencies. As the technology continues to evolve, it's expected that new use cases will emerge, such as in the area of digital identity verification, where blockchain-based solutions could be used to create secure and decentralized digital identities. Another example is in voting systems, where blockchain technology can be used to create tamper-proof records of voting results.

5) Further regulatory clarification and standardization in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space

As the blockchain and cryptocurrency space continues to grow and evolve, it's likely that governments and regulatory bodies around the world will begin to take a closer look at how to regulate and oversee these new technologies. This could lead to further clarification and standardization of regulations in the space, which could help to create a more stable and predictable environment for businesses and individuals operating in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space.

Some thoughts on the predictions

So how did ChatGPT do? My two coins: it's not bad but probably rather easy to come up with: blockchain pops up in more and more industries, quantum creates some fuzz, and more and more regulators are looking into it.

I'm doubtful about the "continued growth" which basically shows ChatGPT wasn't fed with last year's news (it's using millions of pages from before 2022). The absolute cryptowinter, the downfall of Luna, FTX, Genesis and so many other 'established' crypto-ecosystem players (or clowns) clearly isn't taken into account.

The "new use cases" is true, but digital identity is not new. On the contrary, some of the "older" use cases went into bankruptcy or were halted in 2022: We-Trade, B3i, TradeLens,... A lot of ideas are still popping up and substantiated in start-ups, but they lack the enormous userbase these old, ecosystem driven use cases simply could start with. Nothing on that.

My main concern: AI is taking lessons from the past to predict the future. How sensitive is it for Amara's Law? How up to date should it be and how trained should it be on the latest intel to properly judge what's going on?

And perhaps most of all: is it ethically ok to use technology to think about technology? Shouldn't that be something humans still do? You'll find human generated predictions between the articles of Frederik De Breuck .

How blockchain and AI could interact

Behold - this is a pet peeve. Quite often blockchain is positioned as the datastore from which a superior interactive and pseudo-intelligent tech as AI could get some immutable data from. Could be, but I'm pushing for more of a sandwich model.

Let me explain: AI could obtain "trusted data" (immutable, auditable, traceable) from a ledger and do its own impossible/hard to understand deep learning magic with it. But as soon as we start relying on the outcome, as I did higher up for the predictions, I argue it becomes valuable to also store the decision and the reasoning behind it. So the bottom bun is data, the top bun is the outcome, between sits the AI: my sandwich.

Perhaps Terminator and SkyNet coloured my view too much, but I think it's a scary thought to rely on things we don't understand in an attempt to understand something else. It would make a difference for me to know how and why ChatGPT came up with these ideas. Was it Google Trends? A keywords search? Based on questions it received from others?

It would allow me to match it with my own judgement of data, or discuss it with others to see if we agree or find blind spots (like - financial markets? No mention whatsoever about CBDC, tokenized securities, bonds on the ledger?).

Conclusion

The future is what happens while making plans, I assume. Amara's Law shows how bad people are in predicting what comes, so everything has to be taken with a grain of salt (I've been saying since 2017 that the breakthrough of enterprise blockchain is imminent). AI could provide some thought provoking summary of what it knows and distil general trends out of it. Or negotiate about non-paid parking tickets, as mentioned in the latest blog from David Birch . Insofar there is a need to converge technologies, I would strive to encapsulate an AI decision making process in an immutable system to ensure we can always look back to judge its judgement.

Let's see how blockchain in all its facets (crypto, DAO, NFT, tokens, enterprise, CDBC, stablecoins,...) evolves in 2023. And early 2024, how correct and complete ChatGPT was in its predictions today.