Short Term Vs. Long Term Trading

Short Term Vs. Long Term Trading

To answer the OPs initial question (https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/activities/0_2q70ICenpwFxwDufUF8Mn7?trk=hp-identity-wvmu)  of short term vs long term, I'd really have to say that it depends on your objectives and personality. Some individuals crave the excitement and fast pace of a 1min or 5min chart, while others will swear by the Dailies. I don't believe there is a right or wrong 'timeframe' to select, but my approach is to have a hybrid approach, because my entry triggers encompass a wide variety of events, some which will play out during the liquidity thin Asian Session for example, while others will impact the pairing noticeably for weeks. Thus I tailor my timeframe to suit the nature of my entry scenario. One approach which I also like to employ is to use set-ups on a shorter time frame to establish a position with low risk in the direction/outlook of a longer term entry trigger. Doing the latter allows one to obtain some seriously outsized Risk:Reward ratios.

Making the transition from holding a trade for a day, to holding it for weeks is not something for everyone, but when you taste your first 1000 pip success, it makes it awfully difficult to look back. One should not limit themself to one timeframe only, as they would be missing out on a wealth of opportunities which can be capitalized upon. One thing I'd like to say is that when I say timeframe, I mean timeframe for determining how long I should hold a position. I do not trade the 5min, hourly or daily because the charts are not where I get my entry triggers. You can see everything you need to see on a 5min/15min chart by changing the zoom. Unless of course you are a chartist where OHLC would be important information to your trading. 

Scenario: A trader is focusing on a longer term trade of let's say 1,000 pip move with Risk/Reward ratio of 1:4. Now he/she waits for the confirmation of the move, when pa goes 200 pips in the trader's direction he/she enters the trade with Stop-Loss of 200 pips and Take Profit target of 800 pips.

Question 1. If the trader risks 5% of his account will get a return of 20%. Do you think market moves 1,000 pips frequently enough to provide a reasonable annual return? If not, how much risk is prudent?

Question 2. If the trader goes for better than 1:4 Risk/Reward Ratio, that would require placing Stop Loss closer than 200 pips. Therefore, market volatility may take this stop out and he/she may require more than one attempt to catch the move. Do you think in this situation the trader would still be able to produce better than 1:4 risk reward?

Question 3. After every big move, market ranges a bit and after every swing there is another swing in the opposite direction completing the cycle. If a trader leaves small gains on the table and sits tight for a big gain, these swings may turn against his/her position or even if they don't there would be very few trades in the whole year.

Question 4. If the trader moves Stop Loss locking some profits after every big move, the market volatility or healthy retraces may take him/her out sooner than expected lets say with 150 or 300 pip gain. Logically, that means the trader's Risk/Reward ratio with initial 200 pip Stop Loss was never 1:4.

Thanks

Aurel Ispas

Borut Skok

Market Quantitative Analyst

8 年

I have found out that using different time frames with the similar algorithms is producing approximately the same amount of white nosie before the algorithem is clear.

Insufficient planning. How many pips are expected during time frame of trade? How many pips has it already moved? Therefore a-b = expected number pips to gain. They both r at s disadvantage .

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