Short term energy outlook review

Brent crude oil: This represents the expected price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in U.S. dollars. The data suggests that the price will increase from $70.89 per barrel in 2021 to $100.94 per barrel in 2022, before decreasing to $82.95 per barrel in 2023 and $77.57 per barrel in 2024.

Gasoline retail price: This indicates the expected retail price of gasoline in U.S. dollars per gallon. The data suggests that the price will increase from $3.02 per gallon in 2021 to $3.97 per gallon in 2022, before decreasing to $3.36 per gallon in 2023 and $3.11 per gallon in 2024.

U.S. crude oil production: This measures the expected daily production of crude oil in the United States, in million barrels per day. The data suggests that production will increase from 11.25 million barrels per day in 2021 to 11.88 million barrels per day in 2022, and then to 12.44 million barrels per day in 2023 and 12.63 million barrels per day in 2024.

Natural gas spot price: This measures the expected price of natural gas in U.S. dollars per million BTU. The data suggests that the price will increase from $3.91 per million BTU in 2021 to $6.42 per million BTU in 2022, before decreasing to $3.02 per million BTU in 2023 and then increasing again to $3.89 per million BTU in 2024.

U.S. LNG exports: This measures the expected daily exports of liquefied natural gas from the United States, in billion cubic feet per day. The data suggests that exports will increase from 9.76 billion cubic feet per day in 2021 to 10.59 billion cubic feet per day in 2022, and then to 12.07 billion cubic feet per day in 2023 and 12.73 billion cubic feet per day in 2024.

Shares of U.S. electricity generation: This represents the expected percentage breakdown of electricity generation in the United States from natural gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear sources. The data suggests that natural gas will account for 37% of electricity generation in 2021 and 2024, while coal will decrease from 23% in 2021 to 17% in 2023 and 2024. Renewable sources are expected to increase from 20% in 2021 to 26% in 2024, while nuclear power is expected to remain relatively stable at around 20%.

U.S. GDP: This measures the expected percentage change in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) from one year to the next. The data suggests that GDP will increase by 5.9% in 2021, before slowing to 2.1% in 2022, and then growing more slowly at 0.9% in 2023 and 2.0% in 2024.

U.S. CO2 emissions: According to the data, the United States is expected to emit 4,903 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2021. The emissions are expected to increase slightly in 2022, reaching 4,976 billion metric tons, before decreasing to 4,799 billion metric tons in 2023, and then remaining relatively stable at 4,829 billion metric tons in 2024.

According to the data, the current STEO forecast predicts a lower natural gas price at the Henry Hub in 2023 and 2024, with a forecasted price of $3.02 per MMBtu in 2023 and $3.89 per MMBtu in 2024, which represents a decrease of 11.2% and 3.8%, respectively, compared to the previous forecast.

The current STEO forecast predicts a lower U.S. vehicle miles traveled in 2023 and 2024, with a forecasted value of 8,935 million miles per day in 2023 and 9,098 million miles per day in 2024, representing a decrease of 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively, compared to the previous forecast.

The current STEO forecast predicts higher U.S. gasoline consumption in 2023 and 2024, with a forecasted value of 8.9 million barrels per day in both years, representing an increase of 1.6% and 2.3%, respectively, compared to the previous forecast.

Finally, the current STEO forecast predicts higher Russia petroleum and liquid fuels production in 2023 and 2024, with a forecasted value of 10.3 million barrels per day in 2023 and 10.1 million barrels per day in 2024, representing an increase of 4.1% and 3.4%, respectively, compared to the previous forecast.

The current STEO forecast predicts higher U.S. coal production in 2023 and 2024, with a forecasted value of 552.3 million short tons in 2023 and 502.6 million short tons in 2024, representing an increase of 6.6% and 1.8%, respectively, compared to the previous forecast.

The current STEO forecast predicts higher U.S. secondary coal inventories in 2023 and 2024, with a forecasted value of 123.6 million short tons in 2023 and 98.4 million short tons in 2024, representing an increase of 17.0% and 20.4%, respectively, compared to the previous forecast.

Finally, the current STEO forecast predicts lower U.S. heating degree days in 2023 and 2024, with a forecasted value of 3,960 in 2023 and 4,156 in 2024, representing a decrease of 3.0% and 1.1%, respectively, compared to the previous forecast.

• Weather: January and February 2023 may be among the warmest on record for that period, particularly in the eastern part of the United States.
• Natural Gas Consumption: US natural gas consumption is expected to average 99.1 Bcf/d in 1Q23, a 5% decline from 1Q22 due to milder temperatures reducing demand for space heating. Residential and commercial consumption is expected to decline by 11% compared to 1Q22.
• Natural Gas Inventories and Price: Due to lower consumption, the US is expected to close the withdrawal season at the end of March with over 1.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage, 23% more than the five-year average. The forecast for the Henry Hub natural gas spot price is an average of $3/MMBtu in 2023, down more than 50% from last year's forecast of almost $5/MMBtu.
• Electric Power Prices: Wholesale electricity prices are expected to decrease in 2023 due to a drop in natural gas prices and increasing electricity generation from renewable sources.
• Global Liquid Fuels Consumption: Global liquid fuels consumption is expected to increase by 1.5 million b/d in 2023 and an additional 1.8 million b/d in 2024, with China being the main driver of growth in 2023 due to increased travel. Growth in 2024 is more evenly distributed among countries.
• Global Liquid Fuels Production: Despite a decline in oil production in Russia due to the EU's ban on seaborne petroleum products, recent petroleum exports from Russia have outpaced expectations, and the oil production forecast for Russia has been revised upwards by 0.4 million b/d in 2023. Overall, global oil and liquid fuels production is expected to average 101.5 million b/d in 2023, up 1.6 million b/d from 2022.
• U.S. Gasoline Consumption: The forecast for US gasoline consumption in 2023 and 2024 has been raised by about 2% compared to last month's outlook due to data revisions from the Federal Highway Administration showing a lower estimate of 2022 vehicle miles traveled and a reduction in vehicle fuel efficiency.