Short Holiday Season and Year-End Volatility
Key Trends?
December News?
With former President Donald J. Trump winning back the White House this past November, it is clear there will be some policy changes likely to impact supply chain and logistics markets.?
One key initiative the former President campaigned on was tariffs on imports of goods. The President Elect has said he is committed to imposing a 10%-to-20% tariff on all imports regardless of what country they come from, and 60% or higher on goods entering the U.S. from China. Until policy is implemented much uncertainty will remain.?
Another topic returning to headlines is the continued labor negotiation between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) currently set to expire January 15, 2025. USMX released a statement stating “USMX met with the ILA to bargain and resolve all remaining outstanding issues needed to reach agreement on a new Master Contract,” said USMX. “While we had positive progress on a number of issues, we were unable to make significant progress on our discussions that focused on a range of technology issues.”?
Meanwhile, ILA has been clear they are looking for a deal to limit automation in order to protect employment of union members. ILA said in a Facebook post “For the first day and a half, discussions were productive, and both sides engaged in addressing serious issues,” said ILA. “However, late yesterday, talks broke down when management introduced their intent to implement semi-automation—a direct contradiction to their opening statement where they assured us that neither full nor semi-automation would be on the table.”
Market Trends?
Supply Update
FTR’s outlook for Active Truck Utilization continued to remain unchanged in the December update. The forecast has utilization reaching 95% in September 2025.?
The net decrease in active for-hire carriers was just 12 carriers in October according to FMCSA data. Authority revocations net of reinstatement was the fewest in a month since April ’22 at 4,906.?
Demand Update
FTR’s 2025 forecast for total truck loadings is an increase of 1.7% y/y, barely changed from the prior outlook. The latest estimate for 2024 is +0.3% y/y. Dry van loadings forecast of 1.7% growth y/y in 2025 is barely changed from the prior outlook. The latest 2024 estimate is +1.5% y/y. 2025 refrigerated loadings came in with a forecast at a 3.4% increase y/y, a slight increase from previous. The revised 2024 estimate is +2.2% y/y.
Rate Update
According to FTR, a 2025 recovery in truckload rates is not quite as strong as it was in the?
prior forecast. The new forecast is +3.8% y/y, excluding fuel, with spot rates up 7.2% and contract up 2.2%.
Change varied across each of the modes in the DAT National Average Spot RPM over the course of November. Van finished about where it started while Refrigerated saw an upswing as seasonal demand took hold. Expect volatility week to week during the holidays as both shippers and carriers will take time away.
Market Forecast
领英推荐
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) was positive in October, but barely. It was also only the third positive reading since April 2022. The TCI, which improved to 0.49 from -2.47 in September, also was in positive territory in both May and June this year. The base of 0 represents neutral market conditions. October’s improvement was due to three factors that had affected the index to a similar degree. Capacity utilization was tighter, and the cost of capital declined. Freight rates were still a negative factor but notably less so than they had been in September.?
FTR is predicting positive conditions throughout the 2-year forecast of the index. However, as mentioned earlier, some uncertainty exists in the market so make sure to speak with your Logistics Consultant to understand potential impacts on your specific business.
Life At Axle
Our Team
Patriot Award Recognition
We’re honored to celebrate a proud moment for Axle Logistics!??? Duncan Johnson , team lead to Joshua Hodge —Axle Logistics Consultant and U.S. Army Reserve member—was officially presented with the prestigious Patriot Award. Retired Command Sergeant Major Marcus Whitt joined Joshua to recognize Duncan on behalf of Axle Logistics.
This award, presented by the Employer Support of the Guard and Reserve (ESGR), honors employers who go above and beyond to support National Guard and Reserve members. Axle is proud to stand among the companies recognized on the Warriors Wall at the White House for our unwavering commitment to those who serve.
Axle Impact
Fantasy of Trees
This holiday season, we were honored to serve as the presenting sponsor of the East Tennessee Children's Hospital Fantasy of Trees! ??? Watching this cherished event bring joy to our community while supporting such an important cause was truly heartwarming.
We’re grateful to have been part of a tradition that inspires holiday cheer and generosity, making a lasting impact on families in East Tennessee. Thank you to everyone who joined us in spreading holiday cheer and supporting this incredible fundraiser!
Did You Know?
The Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree’s journey to New York City is an impressive operation! Each year, the tree is carefully transported hundreds of miles on a custom trailer, escorted by a team to ensure it arrives safely. Once in the city, crews use cranes and precise planning to set it in place, making it ready to shine for the holiday season.
Even the most beloved holiday traditions depend on logistics!?
Stay connected, stay driven. See you next month!
Contact: If you have questions about current market conditions or would like more information, connect with our team today!?
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.axlelogistics.com