A Short Covid-19 Background

My family and I live in China. We have been dealing with the news and rumors surrounding Covid-19 since mid-January. Several friends have contacted me to ask questions, so I thought it might be helpful to summarize what I have learned. I am not a Dr.. I trade energy products for a large Chinese utility and this is a top of the mind summary of what I think is most important.

Three key aspects worry health officials. Covid-19 is very contagious. The technical term is R0. Basically if a sick person meets 10 people, 2 to 3 of those people will get sick. There is some evidence that it is primarily contagious by contact, so family clusters represent a large percentage of those who get sick.

The second worrying characteristic is that Covid-19 has a fatality rate that is about 2% versus the flu at about .1%. More than 80% of the deaths that have occurred are to those over 60 or with other illnesses like diabetes, hypertension or other heart diseases. In contrast to the flu, Covid-19 does not appear to threaten people under 17. Healthy people under 60 are more likely to experience mild symptoms and recover in 2 to 3 weeks.

Finally, people with the virus can present as asymptomatic. This means that fever monitors and other screening methods, short of actual testing, will not identify all infected people.

Consider some math. China has 4 times as many people as the US, so divide all the numbers you hear by 4. When they talk about 70,000 people being diagnosed, that is less than catch the flu each year. Each year in the US, between 20,000 and 50,000 people die because of the flu. 3,000 deaths because of Covid-19 is tragic, but it is significantly less deadly than the US flu season, or driving, or even walking.

We now have numbers from countries like Singapore, Japan and South Korea that is confirming much of what we see in China outside of Wuhan.

A second key to understand is the special circumstances that caused such alarm in China. The virus was first identified by some doctors in Wuhan at the end of 2019. The government ignored the doctors concerns and did not work to identify and quarantine those with the disease. Early January was the lead up to Chinese New Year. Chinese families and business associates get together to celebrate. One celebration included 40,000 families (yes, families) sharing open dishes of food. These events accelerated transmission just before 5 million (big numbers in China) people left Wuhan to return home for the holiday.

Once it became apparent the disease was very contagious with serious complications, the Chinese government effectively quarantined the whole country in place for 14 days. There is no doubt that this has slowed the transmission. It is also what has hurt the economy so much.

Every other government, including the US, has worked hard to identify and quarantine cases before they spread. This has slowed the spread of the virus and it will reduce the number of people that become seriously sick.

Pandemic is a big, scary word. It should be, but it can also be overused and over-hyped. A pandemic is an epidemic that has become self-supporting on multiple continents or disparate areas. My view is that this is a pandemic (multiple, disparate areas with endemic generation). I won't speculate why the WHO has not made this designation, just focus on the numbers.

Another key question that will not be answered until the spring is whether this virus can survive summer. The number of endemic cases in warmer countries and Southern hemisphere countries where it is summer has been much smaller. This could mean that the virus disappears in April and gives us time to find a vaccine before next year.

This is what we are doing here and I recommend to friends and family in the US and elsewhere. Wash your hands. Just like the common cold and flu, this virus is transmitted mainly by getting something on your hands that you then put on your face. Buy some extra food and water so you can feel secure. I don't believe there will be an issue, but it is amazing how calming it can be to have a couple of cases of water and some canned good sitting there. Buy masks, even the simple surgical masks. These will help prevent you from transmitting the virus.

My best advice is to be calm and be prepared. Remember, the media only gets paid if they make you watch.

Blessings to all.

If you like data, this website is doing a great job compiling updates - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/edit#gid=648547189