Shining in the time of Corona

The Academic view

Steven Callander, teacher at Stanford University Graduate School of Business, was introducing his course, "Leader-ship in times of crisis", last year by stating that the question was not "if" but "when" the next global crisis would pop up.

A clear call for readiness...

He continued explaining crisis put a spotlight on you and your organisation, providing a short-lived opportunity to shine, or, alternatively, to go down in flame (remember BP in the Gulf of Mexico...).

In any crisis management, two key points are (1) fast and strong reaction of the leaders, (2) all in full transparency.

And in managing a crisis, demonstrating empathy is crucial.

From that academic angle I have watched the behavior, under the Covid 19 spotlight, of a few organisation, governments, individuals and business.

Who was ready, who is shining?

The A list

1- The front line warriors, doctors, nurses, maintenance people in hospitals around the world are leading by example. What a fantastic group of human being. They are simply risking their lives to save ours and most of the time are not even given the proper tools to do so. Respect for the real heroes of the Covid-19 crisis. You are in the spotlight and shining you do.

2- The Government of Vietnam, where I live and work, is doing an outstanding job in protecting the population with a set of strong, crystal clear and well enforced measures. The result, les than 300 cases as of today while the country is sharing 1500 km of border with China and has over 96 million people. The imposition of a semi-confinement, mandatory mask and a mega traceability exercise that has put over 70,000 people in quarantine explain that great performance. Also described here: "Vietnam poised to be big post-pandemic winner"

3- IFC , the World Bank Group’s private sector arm, have been showing a very fast and straightforward reactions by allocating 8 billion dollars package for their client in need of cash. His CEO Philippe Le Houerou: " Not only is this pandemic costing lives, but its impact on economies and living standards will likely outlive the health emergency phase. By ensuring our clients sustain their operations during this time, we hope the private sector in the developing world will be better equipped to help economies recover more quickly,”

April 16th: here is a video interview of Vivek Pathak, Regional Director - East Asia and Pacific, IFC on this mega intervention from IFC.

April 17th: another very enlightening interview, this time the President of the World Bank, David Malpass, on the debt moratorium for the world's poorest nations.

4- I would divide the Private Sector in mostly three main groups:

• The first Group: made of those companies who keep a long term view in the crisis, have a strong commitment to their work force, had a crisis strategy in place before the event, are showing empathy towards all stakeholders and will probably emerge in a post-Covid world as better organisations. >> Siemens, ASART, Puratos Grand-Place Indochina, HYATT Group
• The Second Group: focusing on short term KPIs and currently laying off hundreds of thousands of good people. Of course, finding the balance between company survival and job protection is the biggest challenge of this Covid-19 for the private sector. All the more reasons to think twice before acting. This is not an opportunity to layoff people. This is a temporary crisis. >> KPMG
• The Third Group: made of those who were not ready for a global crisis and will disappear by year end.

5- The International Press was also tested and having read so much of it online, I can't find better than the SCMP. For the first 100 days, they have provided excellent coverage under multiple angles and gave their readers a day-by-day evolution of the crisis.

I cant help thinking that a lot of leaders, be it in business or in governments, would have greatly benefited of reading these daily news. They were simply the description of what was awaiting everyone in the world 2 months later. The first article on a "mystery illness in Wuhan" was published on December 31st.

On April 14, the Washington Post informed its readers of very troubling News. News with an explosive potential given the global scale of the Covid-19 Pandemic. Apparently, the Covid-19 could have "escaped" from a Lab in Wuhan, a lab specialised in studying Bat Coronavirus. This would bring shadow on the SCMP piece on December 31st stating that the origin of the whole ordeal was a fish market in Wuhan. They dont sell bat in fish markets...

As many have pointed out, there is no evidence that the virus now plaguing the world was engineered; scientists largely agree it came from animals. But that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from the lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals, said Xiao Qiang, a research scientist at the School of Information at the University of California at Berkeley.

See also Forbes: "The Washington Post Goes Rogue: China Lab In Focus Of Coronavirus Outbreak"

6- The Rolling Stones will never disappoint anyone when time comes to shine. Always quick to adapt to new technologies, they have given their first Zoom concert in front of millions and it was an outstanding moment.

"Performing separately from their homes, The Rolling Stones turned out the Let It Bleed classic "You Cant Always Get What You Want." 2019 heart surgery be damned, Mick Jagger's vocals were strong and loose as ever. Keith Richards overflowed with his ineffable charm, Ronnie Wood was all smiles, and Charlie Watts – despite being bereft of an at-home drumkit – air-drumed along to the ode to accepting the hand that's dealt to you. As always, the Stones exuded an enthusiasm for life performers half their age can only dream to attain."

The Z list....

The Z list is made of organisation, very important ones, or governments, no less important, that will be remembered for not having done their job, not having been prepared for this crisis and in some cases, for having made the crisis worst, much worst than it could have been. Unfortunately, the impact of being unprepared in a global health crisis count in hundreds of thousands of life as we will realise by year end...

The Z list is long and getting longer day by day.

The WHO for example, whose job is exactly to protect humanity against pandemics, has done a lousy job. Not listening to early warning from Taiwan ("sorry you are not a member of the world...") or declaring in January that Human to Human transmission was not happening. They later blamed Donald Trump for being political in criticizing them but their failure to act on time was actually based on politics. Hum....

Governments in Europe and USA have not done a great job so far, despite the warning of the crisis taking place 2 or 3 months before in China, thus offering all the lessons needed for getting ready. They didn't get the messages....

There are pathetic debates all around Europe about the need for wearing or not wearing masks. Those debate are sterile as there are not enough masks in Europe for everyone, hence no government is going to push for mandatory mask, many hospitals dont even have enough for their own staff.

The Z list is growing to a level that could very well lead to solid social unrest if everyone does not improve its leadership.

In addition, the lack of the proper strategy, readiness and tools for strategy execution mean that Europe will not get out of this crisis before another 6 months in the best case scenario. Nine month is more likely, that would mean January 2021......, if not longer.

A strong confirmation seem to come from an article published in Science on April 14, stating that "....prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022" and that " even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024 "

The right strategy

Simple observation show that the right strategy is the one combining:

1. Mega-traceability process followed by 2 weeks quarantine for positive cases and their direct contacts
2. Mandatory Masks for everyone, everywhere
3. Massive use of hand gels, temperature check, hand washing
4. Well understood social distancing

On the right, this is what social distancing mean if you take the lift in Vietnam.

A Colossal Test of Leadership.

Without the global human drama and suffering, we could actually welcome that crisis as a revealing dynamic of who are the right leaders of our governments, business and international organisations.

We could even rejoice for the opportunity given.

The world is changing under our eyes and for those, individuals or organisations, who will be able to combine empathy with creative thinking, the future could be much brighter than the past. For many reasons, the environment could be a clear winner in the aftermath.

The after Covid-19 era depend on us, it is being shaped as I write, let's do the right things.

Gricha Safarian, Ho Chi Minh City, April 12th 2020 (revised April 13th / Revised April 14th) (Edited for content April 15th 2020 after Washington Post Article and Science Article)(Updated April 16th) (Updated April 17th) (Final update on April 19th with the Stones Zoom concert)

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