Shifting Tides: Reflections on the Philippines' Maritime Security under Trump 2.0

Developments in American politics undoubtedly have significant implications not only for regional stability but also for the security of its regional allies against systemic risks, including intensifying maritime aggression by China in the East and South China Seas. Like many Filipinos, my primary interest during the recently concluded 2024 United States (US) Presidential Elections was the trajectory of the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy and policy. Following the outcome, I can’t help but feel more anxious about the Philippines’ security in its territorial waters.

For the past four years, we Filipinos have indeed enjoyed unwavering support from the Biden administration to promote our sovereignty and sovereign rights over our territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea, which are compliant with international law. The US has also provided crucial leadership among its regional allies in preserving regional stability and the balance of power. Despite all these efforts, the Chinese Communist Party has remained resolute in its illegal activities and claims within the Philippines’ territorial waters. We have recorded numerous destabilization efforts by China – from the passage of new coastguard regulations, military-grade laser blinding, extensive maritime swarming, and resupply mission blockades to vessel ramming and the actual use of arms and violence – which resulted in a Filipino navy sailor losing his thumb.

As I reflect on these developments, I can't help but think about the everyday lives of my fellow Filipinos who rely on the sea for their livelihood. Fishermen who venture into these contested waters face not only the natural dangers of the sea but also the very real threat of confrontation with Chinese vessels. The anxiety and fear that these individuals must feel is something that resonates deeply with me. It’s not just about geopolitics; it’s about real people whose lives are directly impacted by these international disputes.

Return to the White House

Reflecting on Trump 1.0’s transactional diplomacy, the US significantly weighed its options with China by strategically pursuing both engagement and deterrence in relation to American interests. This approach eventually raised concerns about its consistency and effectiveness in managing conflicts and relations. It also faced challenges from strategic partners, such as the Philippines, regarding American mutual defense commitments.

With Donald J. Trump as the president-elect for the second time, uncertainty and unpredictability cloud my expectations. Will he continue his Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy and America’s protection of its allies in Asia without substantial conditions? Despite his political experience and the seemingly consistent overall American policy and strategic objectives deterring any unilateral alterations of the status quo in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, his hostile pre-election pronouncements and aversion to involving US armed forces in the region without partner investment may either force cash-strapped allies, such as the Philippines, to reallocate finances to defense spending or boost China’s overall position in these important geopolitical flashpoints.

Philippines must Tread Carefully

After a 180-degree turn in the Philippines’ previously amicable relations with China as a response to the latter’s intensifying aggression in our territorial waters, we find ourselves at a crossroads of reassessing our strategic options and choices. Despite recent strategic undertakings such as the passage of two landmark laws that aim to define the country’s maritime zones and archipelagic sea lanes, the Philippines continues to face financial challenges to its defense modernization. Given the asymmetrical capabilities between the Philippines and China, the former must tread carefully to avoid exacerbating tensions with the latter while ensuring our national security and sovereignty.

As a Filipino, this is particularly one of the most pressing concerns I have regarding Trump 2.0 and the next four years of his presidency. The uncertainty surrounding his administration’s foreign policy approach to its regional allies and in the South China Sea leaves me apprehensive about the future of our territorial integrity and the stability of the region.?

It is crucial therefore for the Philippines to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape with prudence and foresight, balancing our relations with major powers while steadfastly defending our national interests and avoiding time-sensitive concerns like changes in political commitments from major allies. This is not only done by further revisiting bilateral trust and confidence-building measures with China, but also effectively utilizing multilateral mechanisms such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in deescalating tensions in the South China Sea.

It is also my hope that our leaders will make decisions that reflect the will and best interests of the Filipino people. We must remain vigilant and proactive in defending our territorial integrity while also seeking peaceful and diplomatic solutions to these complex issues. The future is uncertain, but with careful planning and steadfast resolve, I believe we can navigate these shifting tides and secure a better future for our nation.