Shifting Sands: Navigating geopolitical changes in international student regulations

By Karl Baldacchino

In recent years, many popular study destinations for international students have experienced significant shifts in domestic policies. These changes have influenced the decisions made by international students regarding where they pursue their higher education. Most prominent amongst these are the UK, the Netherlands, Australia, and more recently Canada, each adopting different policies that have created, for lack of a better term, a hostile atmosphere towards internationals.?

This article attempts to provide an overview of how these policies have influenced student interest according to Studyportals data, taking care to highlight the change for on-campus Bachelor’s and Master’s programmes over the last 24 months..?

Furthermore, it highlights the risk of overreliance on Indian students as a key market for international student recruitment. Institutions run the risk of creating a dependency on students whose choices are increasingly driven by the domestic and geopolitical shifts taking place outside of their control.??

?Recapping policy changes

• Canada aims to implement a two-year cap on new undergraduate international student permits due to the explosive growth of foreign enrolments that has exacerbated Canada’s housing crisis. In particular, new permits will be limited to about 364,000 in 2024. A review of post-graduation work visas is also planned.?
• Similarly, the UK has adopted a policy that restricts the number of dependent visas being issued, indirectly influencing the study choices for crucial markets like India and Nigeria who often bring their families with them. In addition to this, the government? recently raised the minimum income required to be eligible for a working visa to approximately ￡36,000, and have announced plans to review the Graduate Visa, each of which are likely to further limit the employment opportunities of UK graduates.?
• Meanwhile, the previous Dutch government unveiled a plan to limit international student enrolment to 40% of the total student body, amidst concerns about overcrowding and a decline in the quality of education. This proposal has stirred controversy, with some universities arguing against such caps, emphasising the value of diversity and the domestic contributions international students make.?
• In Australia, institutions saw a surge in international students following the reopening of borders in late 2022, and partly fuelled by migration changes and attractive study opportunities. This growth has prompted universities to cancel enrolments as visa rejections soar due to concerns around supposed applicants disguising themselves as students, highlighting the challenges faced by both institutions and students amidst evolving migration policies.?

?A global overview?

In the figure below, Studyportals data currently shows that, despite the announcement or implementation of these policies, each of these markets remain regarded as top destinations by prospective students seeking to study a Bachelor’s or Master’s abroad. However, that isn’t to say that student interest might have not fallen as a result of the shifts, with Canada and the UK experiencing a 2.0 and 1.4 percentage point drop respectively in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months.?

Focusing on the Big-4 study destinations (the US, the UK, Canada, Australia), student interest data also shows that competition has gotten tighter in recent months for on-campus Bachelor’s and Master’s offers from the UK and Canada, while Italy and the US gained a higher share of student interest in 2023. The latter is mainly due to the positive approach each destination has taken to attract and recruit international students, adopting policies that signal a welcoming attitude and focus on elevating their students’ experience studying abroad.?

Taking a deeper look at the situation according to study level, then one can more so see that Canada and the UK experienced a sharp decline in student interest over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months, while the Netherlands and Australia witnessed this downtrend for Bachelor’s studies.?

Lastly, looking at year-over-year change in pageviews by month for on-campus Bachelor’s and Master’s in the UK and Canada respectively, it is clear that these two destinations, especially Canada, have taken the strongest hits following the policy shift each government has sought to establish.?

India is the new China?

While policy changes in different countries can influence students' interest in studying abroad, one undeniable fact stands out for institutions aiming to attract international students: the significant impact of the Indian market. India continues to be a crucial source of interest for students seeking to study a Bachelor's or Master's overseas, making it one of the most important markets for international education providers. Beyond this, students based in the US and to a certain extent Bangladesh are also worth considering for international recruitment given the gradual rise in relative interest since late 2021. Consequently, India has emerged as a market that numerous institutions now view as a pivotal contributor, rivalling China in significance.

*Disclaimer: China does not appear in this chart as Chinese visitors represent only a small part of our traffic, even though China is the largest source of international students worldwide. Unfortunately, this is a result of China’s restrictive internet policies that also restrict access to Google. Since most of the Studyportals’ traffic comes through organic Google searches, Chinese visitors are underrepresented.?

An issue with such consideration is that India has indirectly gained much influence over the financial stability of higher education institutions the world over, with institutions becoming increasingly dependent on Indian students in the same way they became dependent on Chinese students pre-Covid.?

This can be seen in the trendline chart below as Canada and the UK struggle to either retain or regain the interest of Indian students. It must be said that these students take note of the atmosphere study destinations create towards international students, and thus react to a rapid change in opinion or attitude. For instance, interest for Canada nosedived well before the recent policy shift, which may be attributed to concerns around housing, student feeling exploited, scandals surrounding admissions, as well as bilateral tensions that made headlines in mid-2023. The fluctuation for the UK is also understandable when one takes into account that roughly 30% of the roughly 136,000 dependent visas issued in 2022 were granted to Indian applicants.

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In relation to this, Indian students have increasingly looked at other destinations in the last 12 months, primarily France, Ireland, New Zealand, Sweden, and Poland. This might be for a variety of reason ranging from policies that are favorable and welcoming to internationals, to an affordable student experience, or simply to be closer to home. Alongside this, Australia has also seen a growth in Indian interest in the same period, seeing interest for on-campus Master’s rise by +43.8%.?

Although India is a valuable market, caution is still advised in relying too heavily on one source market. HEIs would do well to remember how dependence on the Chinese market for destinations like Australia created problems following the outbreak of Covid-19. Diversifying one’s student audience still remains the top priority. Two source markets worth keeping an eye on are Pakistan and Bangladesh, both of which have indicated more interest to study abroad in the last 12 months and may at the least provide institutions brief oases of security.?

What’s next??

Alongside the caution emphasised in this article, a sober approach is also advised in remembering that while recent policy shifts have and will continue to impact the destinations implementing restrictions, this is all part of the global policy cycle: the opening and closing of doors to international student mobility. Mark Ovens, Business Unit Director for EMEA & UKI at Studyportals, noted last year that understanding the global policy cycle , from agenda setting to evaluation, is crucial for effective international policy-making. Each stage, including problem identification and implementation, requires consideration of diverse perspectives and collaboration among stakeholders. Despite challenges like power dynamics and conflicting interests, engaging with this cycle is vital for tackling complex global issues.?

One way that this can been seen in the coming months is with the upcoming US presidential elections. It would not be all that surprising to see a similar reaction by US student interest rising to study abroad should Trump potentially get re-elected with internationals turning the opposite direction.??

This shows that domestic elections remain an important event for higher education as a whole, as the policymaker(s) are still the primary stakeholders that decide whether, and sometimes even which, international students can study in their country.??

It is also the case that domestic students take a reactionary approach as seen last year when President Erdogan kept his seat, resulting in a spike in Turkish interest both during elections and after the announcement of results.?

Higher education institutions and international students are once again at the forefront of global and political discussions. Both groups must enhance their resilience and adaptability in response to the changing landscape around them.??

The key takeaway for institutions from this article is the importance of diversifying to mitigate risk in the face of policy environments beyond their direct control.?

?When introducing policies that influence the choices of prospective international students, it is crucial to clearly communicate the institutions' ongoing commitment to welcoming them and to continue to provide a quality education that prepares students for the job market and ensures they become advocates for the positive experiences gained from studying abroad.?