Shifting Political Majorities in the European Parliament (2024-29)

In June 2024, EU citizens will cast their votes to shape the European Parliament for the 2024-2029 term. The pulse of aggregated opinion polls across 27 member states suggests that anti-establishment and populist parties, particularly those on the right fringes of the political spectrum, are poised to secure a notable increase of seats. In contrast, the traditional center-right and center-left parties are bracing for a decline in support. This political trend has progressively solidified over the past year, with a few exceptions surfacing in specific countries, as witnessed in the recent general election in Spain.

What are the implications of these trends for the future majorities in the European Parliament? Do they hint at potential power-sharing agreements involving these anti-establishment and populist parties? Not necessarily.

Delving into the ramifications of these trends on future European Parliament majorities reveals that it's not necessarily an indicator of these political groups being integral to power-sharing agreements. A closer examination of the latest opinion polling figures uncovers that a minimum winning coalition on the left (S&D, Greens, and Left), supported by the liberal Renew group, is likely to remain beyond reach in the foreseeable future. Post the forthcoming elections, this coalition is projected to secure less than 45% of the seats, in contrast to the over 50% in the current legislative term. Up until now, the Renew group held the advantageous "kingmaker" role in the European Parliament, lending its support to ad-hoc alliances on both the left and right. However, this scenario seems less likely after June 2024. Given the highly improbable cooperation between the political left and far-right factions, the responsibility for determining whether resolutions and legislative files garner majorities will rest with the EPP group. Consequently, political groups on the left side of the political spectrum face the choice of seeking compromises with the EPP group or acknowledging that their priorities may not find adoption. On the other hand, it's essential to recognize that the EPP group alone falls short in forging enduring coalitions to the right of the center. Envisioning political groups such as Renew, ID, and ECR (in their entirety) effortlessly establishing a solid cooperative foundation for joint political initiatives presents a big challenge.

In essence, the EPP group's support will play a pivotal role in achieving majorities in any political initiative, notwithstanding its own lack of majority representation. In comparison to holding 26.5% of seats in 2019, it is projected that the EPP group's share will diminish to 22.4% in 2024 (without new additions). Nonetheless, the "kingmaker" mantle will shift from the Renew to the EPP group (if current opinion polling trends prove to be stable over the next year).