Shifting Ground: Kamala Harris' Unexpected Rise and the Race That Redefined 2024

The 2024 U.S. presidential election has transformed into a whirlwind of uncertainty and volatility, redefining the very nature of modern political contests. Over the past three months, a series of dramatic events have shattered conventional wisdom, reshaping the race in ways that few could have predicted. As the political landscape continues to shift beneath our feet, this is no longer the same election it was in the summer.

For those caught up in the bubble of presidential politics, the last three months have been dizzying. Beyond the barrage of history-making moments—Joe Biden's embarrassing senior moment on live TV, Donald Trump's survival of not one but two assassination attempts, and Kamala Harris' dominance in her debate against the former president—the entire feel of the election has changed. Yet, as polls continue to show an incredibly tight race, it would have been reasonable to assume that simply swapping candidates would not alter the fundamental dynamics in a nation so deeply divided along partisan lines. However, a recent NBC News poll taken September 13-17 has shattered that assumption, revealing a profound shift in the race's "vibes" that may portend more substantive changes to come. The survey shows that since July, Harris' favorability among voters has increased by a staggering 16 points—the largest jump NBC's polling unit has observed for any politician since George W. Bush's post-9/11 spike. Prior to Biden's exit, Harris' numbers were underwater, with 50% of the country viewing her unfavorably and only 32% favorably. Now, the same poll finds 48% viewing her positively and 45% negatively—a dramatic turnaround in a relatively short window.

This shift is even more remarkable when considering the context. NBC News began tracking Harris as a national figure in August 2020, when Biden selected her as his running mate. In all that time, she had never seen numbers like these. Her previous high point came in October 2020, when she earned a 42% positive and 38% unfavorable rating. Even as Vice President, her best showing was an even 41% split in January 2021.

Favorability may be an imperfect metric for a candidate's ability to turn out voters, but it can still make a world of difference, especially in a race as close as this one. For further context, at this point in 2016, NBC had then-nominee Hillary Clinton carrying positive vibes from just 37% of the electorate, with Trump faring even worse at 28%. By September 2020, Trump had improved to 41% positive, while Biden edged him out at 43%.

So, what accounts for Harris' remarkable turnaround? In this cycle, a confluence of factors appears to be at play. Democrats had spent months fretting over Biden's prospects of winning and serving another term. Those concerns burst into the open after a disastrous debate performance that exposed the president's halting, uneven stage presence against Trump. Harris' subsequent elevation and exceptional reintroduction to the electorate washed away any lingering comparisons to the hapless Selina Meyer from "Veep," as TIME's Charlotte Alter noted in a recent cover story. Moreover, with the political landscape redrawn, Trump now appears to be the "old guy" who is a step behind, as he continues to tout conspiracy theories that are even souring some die-hard Republicans on the prospect of a sequel. NBC's data illustrates this dynamic clearly: In July, pollsters posited a hypothetical matchup between Harris and Trump, showing the former vice president trailing the Republican by 47% to 45%. Now that Harris is the actual nominee, she leads Trump 49% to 44%—a seven-point swing in the Democrats' favor in a relatively short span.

Crucially, this surge in Harris' favorability has coincided with a dramatic shift in voters' perceptions of her capacity to lead. When Biden was still in the race, a paltry 21% of the electorate thought he was more physically and mentally fit to fill the role of president than Trump. Now, a remarkable 54% believe Harris can get the job done. Perhaps the "medical experts" who had prematurely written off Biden's abilities were overly harsh, but once that image took hold, it proved stubbornly difficult to dislodge.

To be sure, despite Harris' national momentum, this election remains a razor-thin contest. Trump continues to maintain dedicated support in key battleground states, which will ultimately determine the outcome. While Harris has made significant gains at the national level, the Electoral College, where Republicans have historically held an edge, presents a more complex challenge. Recognizing this, Harris' campaign has adopted an underdog strategy, emphasizing the need to translate her growing popularity into concrete wins in the swing states.

As the campaign enters its final six weeks and voters in some states begin casting ballots, it is worth appreciating the remarkable degree to which this race has shifted in both great and small ways. While it remains the closest contest in 60 years, it is no longer the same tight race it was just three months ago. The political ground has shifted dramatically, creating an environment primed for further unpredictable changes in the homestead.

In many ways, the 2024 election has been defined by its extraordinary pace of transformation. Biden's sudden exit, Harris' rise, and Trump's continued embrace of conspiracy-laden rhetoric have all fundamentally altered the campaign's trajectory. As Election Day approaches, one thing is clear: this is no longer the same race it was over the summer. The rapid shifts in public opinion, coupled with an incredibly tight contest, mean that every moment counts. Both Harris and Trump face critical challenges in translating their respective narratives into victory, navigating a deeply divided nation with stakes higher than ever.

While the 2024 election may end up as one of the closest in recent history, it is far from static. The coming weeks hold the potential for even more surprises, as both campaigns face an unpredictable final stretch. What is certain, however, is that this election has already left a lasting imprint on American political history. Though the outcome remains unknown, the profound shifts we have witnessed ensure that 2024 will be remembered for its volatility, high stakes, and the dramatic political realignment that it has ushered in.

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