Shifting dynamics

There′s so much political comment out there on UK politics it can be hard to keep on top of it.

?

Every week-ish I publish commentary that′s caught my eye and hopefully helps you with some insight.

?

Do subscribe if you find it helpful.

?

Let′s dive in.

?

This week′s edition picks up on:

?

·????? What′s the future of relations between mayors in England and the new government?

?

·????? Will Reform fizzle away over the next few months?

?

·????? The thorny choice for the Tories as they try to recover.

A fresh start

Following the election relations between English mayors and Whitehall look set to get a lot warmer. ?

Rob Parsons′s long read in The Northern Agenda flags how mayors and the new government want a bigger push on joint engagement and sharing expertise between local leaders and central government.

Labour sees mayors as key to driving the potential of English regions to boost UK economic growth and make sure the Starmer government hits its number 1 objective.

Regional leaders are focusing on fleshing out local growth plans over summer so ideas can also be fed into Rachel Reeves′s autumn budget.

This is less about “submit your homework” and more about a “grown up relationship between equals, equal parts of the system who have plans for delivery and want to work together to get things done."

Separately, the government is keen to give away powers to more English regions who don’t yet have a devolution deal, with the FT reporting it wants areas that are “devolution deserts to request new powers from central government over various policy areas.”

Reform′s here to stay

Is the party′s success to date a blip or the start of a deeper shift in British politics?

A poll by More in Common/New Statesman points to the second.

It suggests that it′s a mistake to write off support for Reform.

If you look at the different parties and how enthusiastic their voter base was during the election campaign then Reform tops the list.

Can the Tories survive?

It′s the question of the moment for the party.

?

Surveying the post-electoral wreckage, Miranda Green′s film in the FT provides a great analysis of where the party is, where it went wrong and what challenges are coming down the track.

?

Spoiler: it′s bad, but perhaps it isn′t as bad as some think.

?

But, this depends on what kind of party it wants to be.

Bridge moderate support in the centre or focus on winning the support of voters who opted for Reform?

?

It′s a complex choice for the Tories between where their base is and where the country might be heading as UK voter demographics are shifting far and fast.

?

Experts point out in the film how graduates (who are socially liberal) are growing as a % of the electorate between now and 2031.

?

Plus, more of them are moving into rural areas that are traditionally Conservative.

?

That could hurt the efficiency of the Tory vote nationally.

?

Some good news for the Tories: graduates aren′t partisan as in the old days.

They could be persuaded by the Tories to opt for the party, and not the centre-left - if the policies are right.

?

Plus, there′s a fair degree of voter volatility and a 6% swing back to the Tories in 2029 could see them wipe away Labour′s majority. ?

?

On the flip side the number of voters who left education before university (generally more socially conservative) is reducing in some areas the Tories won in 2019.

?

So, the Tories can′t simply dust off the same kind of messaging/Red Wall strategy they used to win Labour seats back in 2019.

Other top picks

1. The Post Mortem, Part 1 and Part II - Why things could get worse, and the examination needs to be deeper than you imagine in Joxley Writes (future of the Conservatives).
2. New Cabinet Office Minister Says There Is "Massive Waste" In Local Council Funding in PoliticsHome
3. SpAdcast: What is it really like to be a special adviser? (Institute for Government)
4. The times-are-a-changin’: assessing the political and economic outlook for the new Labour Government (Resolution Foundation).
5. Starmer has a golden opportunity to reset relations with Europe (Anand Menon)
6. Starmer’s big idea is a bigger state, led by Ed Miliband’s wisdom (Robert Coville)
7. This election confirmed the limited rewards of rowing back on Net Zero (Sam Hall)

Sign up here to get the newsletter direct to your inbox.

?

Enjoyed reading this and think others might find it helpful?

?

Forward this to them or share it on your social networks.

?

And if you need help delivering your political engagement strategy or want to chat about where the UK is heading politically drop me a message here or on?LinkedIn?and let's chat informally