Shattering Illusions
We're Witnessing a Spectacular Unravelling of the Wild West. What Come's Next?
Hey Friends
The past week has been a whirlwind of rapid-fire political developments, both socio-politically and economically, that have shaken the very foundations of our understanding of the current American political landscape. These events were so significant and fast-moving that we made the unprecedented decision to postpone the publication of last week's edition of Commerce & Capital.
This pause allowed us to internally regroup, observe further and carefully consider our role as a weekly business and entrepreneurship publication during these turbulent times. It’s led us to make some necessary decisions about how we move forward in our coverage and analysis of American politics and its impact on the global economy.
Thus far we have prided ourselves on maintaining a position of neutrality, entertaining perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum. However, given the depths of corruption we are now witnessing at all levels, we have come to the conclusion that such neutrality is no longer just unhelpful — it borders on dishonesty.
While we will comment far less directly on individual political figures, we feel compelled to take a firmer stance on critiquing the systemic issues plaguing the American political system. Let’s delve into the recent events that have brought us to this turning point.
Shifting Our Approach
This weekend we learned about a second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. This alarming event, a mere eight weeks after the initial attempt on his life, underscores the heightened tensions and potential for violence in the current political climate. It's a stark reminder of the real-world consequences of increasingly divisive rhetoric and polarization we are seeing across mainstream media.
Adding to the tumult, an ABC News whistleblower has come forward with allegations that last week’s Trump-Harris debate was staged in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris. According to these claims, Harris was provided with answers in advance, and was guaranteed to have her responses not fact-checked. This revelation strikes at the heart of fair political discourse, and the integrity of the American democratic process.
Commerce & Capital has made the decision to step back from direct commentary on individual candidates. Our role is better served by focusing on the broader economic and policy implications of political decisions, rather than engaging in the often murky waters of personality-driven politics, or contributing to the current poisonous invective
The Need for Systemic Change
These recent events have highlighted a glaring issue in the American political system: the limitations of a two-party structure. The fact that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was forced to run as an Independent rather than a Democrat underscores the rigidity of the current system. It's become increasingly clear that a more diverse political landscape that allows for a wider range of voices and perspective is necessary for America’s future.
We've observed with growing concern certain trends within the American Democratic Party that echo autocratic and authoritarian stances. There appears to be increasing intolerance for virtually any dissent or deviation from official public narratives endorsed by the government. The intense stifling of healthy debate and the free exchange of ideas is anathema to what we have traditionally associated with modern democracies.
Commerce & Capital has taken great pains to maintain neutrality in our analysis. However, the levels of corruption and dysfunction we've witnessed compel us to favor a complete change of the current status quo. We don't necessarily endorse Donald Trump or the Republican Party; our concern lies with the abject inability of the Biden-Harris administration to materially improve the lives of their constituents, coupled with what we perceive as their arrogance, inflexibility and allergy to any and all criticism.
A Final Word on the Political Landscape
We can no longer see how the American public and the world could benefit from four more years of the status quo under this particular Democratic administration. From a policy and fiscal economic standpoint, it appears to us that a Trump victory in November, while not ideal, would still represent a new beginning for American citizens grappling with rising crime, runaway inflation and unchecked mass immigration.
Both major candidates in the upcoming election are, in our view, woefully inadequate for the position they seek. Neither inspires the confidence or possesses the qualities we believe are necessary to lead the United States effectively in these complex times. If we had the opportunity to vote, and if this were truly a fair world, our choice would be clear: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?
In our assessment, RFK Jr. has consistently exhibited a high level of moral compass that is sorely lacking in today's political landscape. His willingness to take on powerful interests such as Big Pharma and Big Food demonstrates a courage that is rare in modern politics. RFK Jr. has exhibited a life-long commitment to speaking the truth, and elevating the needs and concerns of everyday people. His background as a member of the Kennedy family, while certainly one of privilege, means that he comes to the political arena with a degree of financial independence that is crucial. RFK Jr. cannot be bought — a quality that is invaluable in a political system overly driven by money and influence. Leaders like RFK Jr. who prioritize the interests of the people over those of corporations are exactly who Americans need at the helm during this crucial historical juncture.
Moving forward, our primary focus will be back to the topics that have always been at the heart of our publication: entrepreneurship, financial markets, business innovation and life design. The political and economic spheres are inextricably linked, and of course we will always keep in mind broader societal contexts where appropriate and applicable.
Thank you for your continued readership and trust. We look forward to providing you with the insightful, forward-thinking content you've come to expect from Commerce & Capital — with an even sharper focus on the areas where we can add the most value.
My Best,
Moshe Modeira
Editor-in-Chief
Commerce & Capital
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Market Alpha: Debates, Death Threats & Disruption
As we navigate through a week marked by tense political discourse, technological advancements, and market volatility, several key developments are reshaping the investment landscape.
Political Landscape and Market Impact
???Key Insight: The intertwining of politics, technology, and celebrity influence is creating a new paradigm for market analysis. Investors should monitor policy proposals reshaping the tech landscape, particularly in AI and data governance. The recent assassination attempt and heightened political tensions may lead to increased market volatility and could benefit sectors related to security and stability.
Tech and AI Developments
???Key Insight: The AI gold rush is entering an intense new phase. Look for companies solving real-world problems and addressing ethical concerns. Apple's integration of AI into consumer devices could open new investment opportunities.
Regulatory Reckoning
???Key Insight: Prioritize companies with robust compliance frameworks and agility to adapt to evolving legal requirements across jurisdictions.
Market Movements and Innovation
???Key Insight: The tech sector is undergoing a hardware renaissance. Look for opportunities in companies innovating in specialized AI hardware, quantum computing and cloud infrastructure.
Global Tech Dynamics
???Key Insight: Geopolitical tensions are accelerating the trend of "friendshoring" in tech. Companies able to navigate this new landscape may see significant advantages.
Emerging Frontiers
???Key Insight: Companies addressing AI ethics, safety and enterprise integration appear poised to enjoy increased investor trust.
Alpha Recap and Forecast
Investors should consider building a balanced portfolio that includes established tech giants adapting to the new landscape, nimble startups addressing emerging challenges, companies at the forefront of ethical AI and privacy technology, and those benefiting from increased focus on security and political stability.
Commerce & Capital: Shattering Illusions
Some Honest Reflections On Our Current Economic Landscape
Because of this newsletter, for the first time in about a decade, my attention has been hyper-fixated on the global economy and equity markets. The sheer volume of economic data I'm absorbing has me deeply concerned about the future — not just for my family, but for millions of families like mine across the planet.
I’m someone who typically maintains an extremely optimistic outlook, my aim is always to be of service and to help guide fellow entrepreneurs toward successful lives and businesses. I now feel forced to acknowledge a harsh truth: the sheer tenuousness and fragility of the spectrum of illusions we're currently living in
Most people, no matter what they say publicly, are now struggling mentally and financially. No matter how much we culturally chloroform ourselves on a daily basis with entertainment, stories, distractions, narratives, content and magical thinking — we need to confront reality in a more tangibly comprehensive manner.
The Search for Economic Stability
The pressing question that keeps me up at night is: What's the real economic plan for families like mine? Is it real estate? Small business ownership? Stock market trading? The truth is, many of us are in dire straits, and the path forward isn't clear.
I find myself fatigued by the constant chatter about cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence. I'm no Luddite. I’ve made some small-cap investments and participated with an open mind in communities focused around these technologies. They have their place, and the arc of history seems to be bending in their direction, but they're not yet the financial solutions that many are claiming.
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AI, despite its already extraordinary impact, is still a developing technology that primarily amplifies existing workflows. It’s still largely a giant civilizational experiment, with heavy regulation is on the horizon. The sector is increasingly under intense legal scrutiny due to concerns about its comedic laxness around data usage and IP theft. It has been fascinating to witness the absolute Wild West that is generative AI unfold since ChatGPT debuted on November 30th, 2022.
Cryptocurrencies, for all their promise, have still to date only brought significant wealth to a minuscule fraction of the global population. Since Bitcoin's inception in 2009, the sector has been rife with volatility, fraud, speculation and regulatory challenges. While blockchain technologies undoubtedly have long-term potential, the idea that they will quickly upend centuries-old financial systems is overly optimistic. It will be perhaps a decade longer before they achieve mainstream adoption as a viable economic system.
We need to be cautious about pinning our hopes for economic salvation on nascent technological advancements. For the average Canadian and American family struggling to make ends meet, crypto and AI offer little immediate relief.
The Creator Economy Mirage
I talk a lot about the burgeoning creator economy, but getting paid by Alphabet, Twitter, Meta, Amazon or TikTok is still very inaccessible for the vast majority of people. Yes, you can leverage these social platforms to promote your brand or business, but it requires genuine effort, a clear vision and an established foundation. Lucky content creators go “viral” every single day, but the idea that you can quickly create a livelihood and sustainably, consistently get paid by one of these tech companies is a dangerous myth that is causing a lot of existential pain.
We need to hit pause and reassess. I'm genuinely worried about everyone's mental health. Why has our collective thinking become so shortsighted? It's crucial that we don't succumb to the allure of get-rich-quick schemes. It’s even affecting seasoned business people I know, as the economic desperation mounts and the math continues to not math.
Financial success has never been achieved by anything other than through years of diligent focus, hard work, sweat and tears. Nothing has fundamentally changed about that just because we all now walk around with supercomputers in our hands.
The Reality of Our Economic System
The fiat system, for better or worse, still dominates our economic reality. We need to return to first principles thinking and confront the truth of this situation. In this age of incredible tech like Elon Musk’s Starlink, global entrepreneurship and digital nomadism, there's a crucial fact that often goes unacknowledged: the global distribution of wealth still remains heavily concentrated in specific regions.
The markets that offer the potential for generating significant wealth — those with the most customers and the highest purchasing power— are not evenly distributed across the globe. They are primarily clustered in North America, Europe, parts of the Middle East, and pockets of China and South Asia. This isn't just about raw population numbers. It's about being able to access consumers with disposable income, robust financial systems and business infrastructures.
For entrepreneurs and businesses aiming to tap into these lucrative markets, the reality is stark: physical presence, capital investments and robust digital connections to these regions are often necessary. This truth challenges our currently sunny narrative about living in a globalized, borderless economic world.
These realities are still significant considerations for entrepreneurs everywhere:
These still-extant realities present a conundrum for the creator economy movement and the burgeoning idea of location-independent entrepreneurship. While it's true that one can now operate a business from anywhere in the world with an internet connection, the question remains: can you sustainably scale a business if you’re not connected to these specific corridors of wealth? This reality presents a conundrum for entrepreneurs and individuals worldwide, especially those from regions outside these wealth concentrations.
Do you relocate to be closer to where the money is?
This is the question at the heart of one of the most contentious issues facing the Western world today: immigration. The concentration of wealth in just a few global regions has sparked a modern gold rush. People from around the globe flock to these countries, in search of better economic opportunity for their families.
This influx of human capital, while often beneficial for innovation and economic growth, is leading to growing tensions in host countries. Inflationary pressures in already strained housing markets, increased competition for jobs, and the challenges of cultural integration have fuelled unprecedented levels of nationalist resentment in the hearts and minds of many. It's a bitter irony that the economic success that attracts immigrants — also breeds hostility towards them.
The alternative is investing heavily in building digital bridges to these markets. This approach comes with its own set of challenges. It requires significant financial resources, a deep understanding of foreign markets, and the ability to navigate complex international regulations. Further, it often still necessitates some physical presence in target markets, bringing us back to the immigration conundrum.
These questions are furiously shaping the future of global economics and politics. The pressure of immigration on wealthy nations is leading to increasingly restrictive policies, potentially stifling the very dynamism that made these economies successful in the first place. Conversely, the brain drain from developing nations threatens to perpetuate and even exacerbate global inequality.
The current global economic setup, featuring such monstrously stark concentrations of wealth and opportunity, is unsustainable. It's creating tensions that threaten to unravel the very fabric of our globalized world. Understanding this is crucial for any entrepreneur or business leader in 2024. It's not about discouraging global ambitions, but about being realistic about where the opportunities for substantial growth and wealth generation currently lie. Deliberately addressing these global imbalances, and finding ways to create more opportunities for equitable, sustainable and scalable entrepreneurship across markets represents one of the great modern challenges of our capitalist system.
The Cost of Integrity
In my personal business and life design journey, I've always strived to play a clean, honest game, vociferously avoiding opportunities to exploit others for personal gain. When I was younger, I believed that my ethical, transparent approach would lead to unbridled success — that I was playing chess while others played checkers.
I have come to realize that honesty and straightforwardness can leave you vulnerable when competing against people with dubious moral standards.
The level of corruption in our systems runs so deep that many can't even acknowledge it without facing acute existential crisis. People cling to the pursuit of status, money, and appearance, often resorting to escapism through substances and distractions to avoid confronting these uncomfortable truths.
The Weight of Disillusionment
Like everyone else, I’m struggling to discern what the right path forward is. I've lost some of the innocence of youth, the naivety that, ironically, seems necessary for success in this environment. Yet, I continue to share ideas that align with my personal ethics, believing in the values of unity, equity, justice and honesty.
I'm angry at my past self for uncritically buying into the promises of our economic paradigm. It took me too long to ask questions about the core premises upon which our society is built. I'm angry about the clear corruption happening at so many levels of society. The incessant mainstream media gaslighting, the perpetual state of division — racial, religious, tribal, and now gender-based — it all feels like we're collectively wasting precious time focusing on the wrong things.
The upcoming U.S. election is incredibly emblematic of how much we have collectively failed. The choice being offered between two unbelievably unqualified candidates, in an election that has such dire consequences for global markets, is incredibly alarming.
My signature optimism, the quality I was always known for as a young entrepreneur, is sometimes in danger of being replaced by cynicism and pessimism. In the last five years especially, during the age of Covid, it seems that the size, scale, and breadth of questionable governmental initiatives, media narratives, and political agendas have become breathtakingly difficult to ignore.
The Erosion of Individual Agency
What's most concerning is how our individual abilities to control our lives seem to be eroding. Living healthily without constantly battling poison from food companies, having the freedom and time to exercise, meditate and self-actualize, things once seemingly as simple as having the agency to choose what medical protocols are best for our own bodies — it feels like all of this is being rapidly taken away from us, at a pace we don’t even recognize as Overton windows shift more and more.
Navigating a Complex Landscape
Anyone who knows me will tell you that I have always been a huge proponent of self-belief. I've always believed in harnessing individual initiative and creativity to solve problems. Lately, I have found myself lamenting more and more about my perceived individual powerlessness. The systems we operate within — political, economic, social — increasingly feel rigged against the average person. Nihilism was never a word in my personal vocabulary.
I can understand now how people get to there mentally. These feelings are profoundly unsettling and are anathema to the successful entrepreneurial mindset. It’s what many are admitting they also feel.
But I recognize that while individual efforts may often feel insignificant, collective action still makes a difference. We need to support each other, share knowledge, and work together to create pockets of positive change wherever we can.
CTA: Don’t Let Your Frustration / Anger Lead to Apathy
As we navigate these challenging times, it's crucial that we maintain our integrity while also being clear-eyed about the realities of our economic and social systems. Are you also struggling to maintain the balance between optimism and pragmatism? Between pursuing your individual dreams — while acknowledging the real struggles being faced by the collective? Let me know your thoughts ??
These reflections were not meant to discourage, but to spark honest conversations about our shared challenges and how we can address them. The road ahead may be uncertain, but it's time to reclaim our agency, redefine success on our own terms, and build a future that better serves us all.
Trending Now
?? Social Media
IG: @julienhimself — Cultivating self-belief and magnetism in communications are the most fundamental anyone ever needs to know about how to become a successful social media content creator. Subversively, this some of the best advice on how to become a more consistent, confident creator that I have ever come across. It will resonate with you too. It is obvious that more than anything, we need to cultivate self-love, self-forgiveness, self-respect and a vision of personal success to have a chance of creating content that people derive value from and want to come back for more. Do you agree?
X: @PaulSkallas — Apple isn't a technology company anymore: There are rarely any boring posts from Lindyman, a creator on X who takes pride in speaking unvarnished truths. Though I have been a quintessential Apple fanboy for many years, it is hard to disagree with the charge that there has been very little innovation or creativity from the tech company arguably since Steve Jobs died in 2011.
?? Book Shelf
Skip The Line by James Altucher . Skip The Line offers an unconventional approach to achieving success by challenging traditional paths and embracing rapid skill acquisition. The book emphasizes the importance of idea generation, networking, and personal branding. I’ve been following James Altucher for years. He is one of the most courageous entrepreneurs I have ever come across. The book draws from his diverse experiences as a founder, investor, and writer, providing practical strategies for accelerating career growth and personal development. Altucher encourages readers to take calculated risks, leverage unique strengths and create opportunities rather than waiting for them.
Be Useful: Seven Tools for Life by Arnold Schwarzenegger . I am picking up this book aptly at a time when I have doubled down on my personal commitment to powerlifting and strength-training. Arnold Schwarzenegger distills his life philosophy and success principles into actionable advice for readers. Drawing from his diverse experiences as a bodybuilder, actor, and politician, Schwarzenegger emphasizes the importance of having a clear vision, working hard, and maintaining a positive mindset. He advocates for the power of being useful to others as a key to personal fulfillment and success. The book covers topics such as goal-setting, overcoming obstacles, building resilience, and the value of continuous learning. Schwarzenegger shares personal anecdotes and lessons learned from both his triumphs and setbacks, offering insights on leadership, self-improvement, and making a positive impact in the world.
America’s Constitution: A Biography by Akhil Reed Amar . I recently picked up this fascinating book by Akhil Reed Amar and it's been an eye-opener. My infamous lawyer friend from NYC recommended it, knowing I often write and comment about the U.S. and its massive impact on the global socio-economy. Amar, who's a renown constitutional scholar, takes the reader on a deep dive through the U.S. Constitution, breaking it down clause by clause. He explores everything from its creation and the founders' original intentions to how it's been interpreted and reshaped over the years. What's interesting is how he connects the historical dots, showing how the Constitution has adapted to changing times while still sticking to its core principles. The book covers all the big stuff — federalism, separation of powers, individual rights — and explains how key amendments and Supreme Court decisions have shaped the country.
?? Article Of The Week
Elon Musk now controls two thirds of all active satellites | The Independent: SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation has reached a significant milestone with the launch of its 7,000th satellite, solidifying Elon Musk's control over nearly two-thirds of all active satellites orbiting Earth.
Since its debut in 2019, Starlink has grown rapidly, now boasting 6,370 active satellites and far outpacing its closest competitor, OneWeb. The network currently operates in 102 countries, serving over three million customers with high-speed internet and phone connectivity. SpaceX aims to expand the constellation to 42,000 satellites, potentially extending its reach to most countries globally, barring a few with internet restrictions or trade embargos. This dominance is raising further concern about the concentration of power in Musk's hands, given his control over SpaceX, Starlink and other influential companies like Tesla and X (formerly Twitter).
See y’all next week! Would love to hear your thoughts — leave your comments below.
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Spiritual Activator, Podcast Host, Author & Founder of The Resilience Revolution. Guiding empaths to heal intergenerational trauma through divine wisdom & astrology. #astrology #psychic #mentalhealth #spirituality
2 个月This is the kind of content we need - authentic and vulnerable ??