Sharing, VR, electric cars and other hype topics that are no longer a thing.

Humanity is developing at a breakneck pace.

But the construction of a brave new world looks in retrospect like an elephant pregnant with pink dreams is continuously giving birth to offspring at an accelerated rate against a concrete wall of reality. Most do not survive, the rest become little like what their mother intended.

Visionary people or entire companies with R&D departments that have been cheated of dollars - give birth to hype technologies, solutions and entire markets. Which are born, grow, collect billions of investments, millions of mentions on social networks, an army of fans and an even larger army of haters, then either die or tell their parents "we dont want to study to be lawyers, but we will be trans models on Onlyfans".

Let's remember and pull out of the closets the main hype dinosaurs of the past.

1. ICO hype

An analogue of a classic IPO, but for online crypto projects, it sounded like music in the ears of crypto anarchists. People believed that each new token was the next bitcoin. The hype was born as a technology in 2014. Total volumes for the year were less than $50 million.

The hype occurred in 2017-2018. The volumes of launched projects reached $18-22 billion per year. Ethereum, as the main platform for ICO, rose in price in 2018 from 400 to 1400 USDT.

But since most crypto anarchists just wanted money, naturally, ICO became a breeding ground for scams. This is what the crypto collapse in 2018 buried ICO.

But on its basis, more niche, regulated and less hyped technologies IEO, IDO were born.

2. VR/AR hype

Enthusiastic visionaries and fans of the anime "Ghost in the Shell" predicted in the mid-2010s that virtual and augmented reality would penetrate all spheres: from education and corporate training to games and everyday life.

Relatively affordable VR helmets appeared (Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, PlayStation VR). An army of investors believed in "metaverses" and AR games after the success of Pokémon GO. Facebook, thanks to Zuckerberg's efforts, even renamed itself Meta and began actively pushing the VR agenda. The "Apple" from Cupertino even released a breakthrough headset Apple Vision Pro (the level of convenience is a bucket on the head with a suitcase in hand) - a good VR headset that pretends to be AR.

The Chinese, traditionally, released dozens of similar headsets, many of which were better and cheaper, but did not have such an ecosystem and an army of fans.

The growth of VR headset sales during the COVID epidemic was corrected by a fall in 2022-23.

The result is: a metaverse generating billions of losses annually for spineless Meta/Facebook investors, a small number of gaming clubs where you can play ALYX and a couple more tiles. Yes, VR/AR technologies are in demand in narrow areas (simulators, architecture, medicine), but there has been no breakthrough into everyday life yet. No one has managed to repeat the success of Pokémon GO. Metaverses are developing locally (niche gaming projects, corporate solutions), but the mass idea of "everyone has switched to Meta" quickly faded away.

But maybe we will see a renaissance of this hype. But humanity needs an answer to the question - "For what the hell?"

3. NFT hype

Non-Fungible Tokens (non-interchangeable tokens) are unique digital assets that confirm the "ownership" of a picture, music, video, etc. The hype took off after the sales of Beeple's works ($69 million) and a number of other high-profile cases.

"Visionaries" were broadcasting from every iron about the coming of a tokenized NFT future. Every day, the news broadcast about new NFT millionaires who drew a series of stupid pixel paintings. Startups without the word NFT practically disappeared.

And everything seemed fine.

The funeral of the NFT industry happened literally a year ago, after the collapse of 99% of the overheated pyramid of absurd sh..t-tokens.

As a result, NFTs remained a niche and absolutely non-hype tool for game development and the art community.

4. Electric vehicle hype

Here we will analyze in more detail.

Well, in fact, electric cars are older than gasoline cars. But, unfortunately, they were positioned as more environmentally friendly and quiet at the expense of functionality. And therefore, for a hundred years, they had zero popularity.

Until the billionaire with the face of a Kazakh child, Elon-our-everything-Musk, decided to go to Mars.

To implement this surprisingly adequate idea, he created the company SpaceX to build a rocket to deliver himself to Mars (which suddenly became the most successful space corporation in the world). And to roll his body on the surface of airless Mars, he created Tesla - a company building electric cars. Which suddenly gave people what they had been waiting for a long time - a car that silently tears off the spot and kicks the ass of super-expensive sports cars, while using almost free electricity. This is what people are really ready to vote for with their wallets!

After that, the electric car industry began to grow by leaps and bounds. Enthusiastic "visionaries" were chanting from the stages of all business forums about the coming of a bright electric future. That in 2-3-5 years all internal combustion engines will disappear, transport companies will go bankrupt, and only unmanned Tesla trucks will drive everywhere. The largest automobile companies have adopted plans for a complete transition to electric vehicles in the next 5-7 years. And the most advanced countries have announced that they will ban movement in their local space-time on anything other than electric vehicles. Car enthusiasts lined up for years for super-powerful electric vehicles. Of course, explaining to themselves and others that they are buying them in the name of planetary ecology, love of beavers and other carbon-neutral spirituality.

Here it is, the brave new electric world. And everything seemed fine. Gas is cheap, maintenance is cheaper and less frequent, because there is no oil change.

But the ..ake swam there. Reality turned out to be not so beautiful.

• A significant part of the popularity of electric cars was paid for from the pockets of taxpayers in the form of fat subsidies. But recently, subsidies have begun to decline sharply and the final prices for the purchase of already expensive electric cars have begun to rise rapidly.
• Meticulous data miners who know how to use a calculator have found out that the production of electric cars and batteries harms the environment even more than cars with internal combustion engines.
• And the development of a network of electric filling stations with super-powerful charging currents (the only way to charge an electric car more or less quickly) has led to an increase in prices at filling stations. And now the average cost of fast refueling in Europe and the USA per 100 km is higher than the cost of fuel for cars with internal combustion engines. Europe: 9-16 € per 100 km (with a consumption of 20 kW h) versus 12-13 € (with 6.5 l / 100 km) for internal combustion engines. And in the USA: 6-9 $ per 100 km. versus ICE - $3.50/gallon, ~$7 is spent per 100 km.
• The annual operating costs, taking into account battery replacement and the fall in the cost of the car, are almost the same for cars and electric cars.
• The zero carbon dioxide emissions of electric cars compensate for the additional harm of electric car production only after 5-10 years. Since electricity is still generated more at thermal power plants. And the harm from the disposal of wind turbine blades and degraded solar panels is also very great.
• The vast majority of electric car manufacturers are unprofitable. Ford and Mercedes are losing billions in their EV areas.

Bottom line:

In 2024, we see a significant reduction in the growth of pure electric vehicles (BEV). And the largest automakers are cutting their plans for electric vehicle sales several times, returning to the development of internal combustion engines. Electric vehicles have not gone anywhere, but the hype has already stopped. BEVs occupy about 12% of the market and are waiting for new technologies for doping.

But this hype has given birth to a much more resilient tribe of hybrids - HEV, PHEV. Which allow you to refuel with regular fuel, consume 0.9-1.6 l / 100 km and run 1500-2500 km from one refueling. And for this, you can say thanks to the "electric trains".

5. Sharing Economy Hype

In the mid-2000s, the first businesses based on the sharing scheme appeared: Airbnb (2008), Uber (2009), car sharing in the USA and Europe. The rapid scaling of these companies turned them into business icons. And hundreds of thousands of followers began to start "their own Uber, but with preference and dancers."

The idea of sharing was great for lovers of socialism and Marxism. Everything is shared, like under communism. Cars, houses, beds, cats, spoons, wives.

Sharing was like an action movie hero jumping from a skyscraper onto a helicopter - loudly, boldly and with the belief that venture billions will save you from gravity. "Car sharing will save you from traffic jams!" - shouted startups. "A scooter for everyone!" - shouted the brave Chinese from ofo and Mobike, filling the streets with two-wheeled snowdrifts (at any time of year).

An army of info-gypsies sang from the stage about the sharing economy, which would certainly swallow up the traditional one. And of course, the sharing model is much better than any other, because it is new, ideological and hyped.

The sobering up came in 2018. Regulators took over the industry, and investors began to come to startups with the question "Where's the money?" And the magical industry of the communist future rolled into a hyped skyscraper. Once-loud companies were flushed down the toilet of history, like cleaning products that investors wiped their hands on.

The result: only titans survived. Uber, Airbnb even talk about profitability. Most of the surviving sharing companies are unprofitable and exist as a division of larger holdings and are monetized through the capitalization of shareholder capital. The sharing economy has transformed from a “revolution of good” into an ordinary bourgeois and very complex business where there is no place for inexperienced neophytes.

There are still many dead and dying hype topics: coworking, drone delivery, DeFi, SPAC and others.

There are many interesting things ahead. People do not sit still. The new "Elon Musks" will give birth to new ideas and throw them with a swing against the concrete wall of reality.

So that it becomes part of this wall, sooner or later.