Shaping a post-COVID-19 World

Introduction:

Today, we are focused on containing the COVID-19 pandemic and dealing with its impact. However, some of us might have some time to think about the post-COVID-19 world. How can we use the COVID-19 experience to make businesses, institutions, and society better? Positive, sustained, transformative change. 

Grandma told me it takes 3 weeks to form or break a habit. Web research says it’s more like 66 days. In any case, the current mess could give us some new norms / habits … and break some old ones. Some will be “good” and some “bad.” Some might endure; some might not.

Here is a starter list of thoughts, issues, and questions about the post-COVID-19 world. It’s rough and incomplete; I’m pretty sure I won’t agree with parts of it when I wake up tomorrow. However, I’ve found that getting a rough draft out fast starts the process of crowdsourcing ideas. Thanks to the diversity of thinking, perspective, and experience inherent in crowdsourcing, the draft gets better very quickly. 

More important, the people whose comments and ideas I have solicited have led and contributed to some extraordinary, large-scale transformations and initiatives: the Bell System Divestiture, building internet infrastructure, re-building the AT&T Network and restoring service in Manhattan after the 9/11 attack, securing the Nation in response to growing terrorism and cybersecurity threats, for example. That leadership can be applied to this transformation too.

I’d love to hear your reactions, ideas, and thoughts. 

·       Which of the new norms do you think have a high probability of enduring?

·       Do you see forecast any other new norms or their implications?

·       What new norms do you think are “good” and “bad?” 

·       What can we do … together … to promote new “good” norms … and suppress new “bad” ones?

Some Trends and Implications, in no particular order of importance or likelihood:

1.) Physical Presence trends towards Virtual Presence

Widespread Work@D (Work at Distance, aka remote work), Education@D (aka distance learning), Healthcare@D (aka telemedicine), Shopping@D (aka on-line retailing), and Socializing@D (aka social networking). These are all now being given a real stress test, at scale. It might be that more widespread and more broadly applied “@D” becomes the new norm. Users and institutions will discover they like “@D” either more … or less … than they previously assumed. User and institutions will likely discover gaps in the “@D” capabilities presently available, perhaps spawning all kinds of improved and brand-new capabilities. 

a.   Might there be a sustained dramatic increase in demand for more … and new … “@D” technology and services?  (Note: Over a 3-week period, AT&T reports at 400% increase in conferencing usage and 30-50% increase in other voice and data usage!)

b.   Might that mean a dramatic reduction in the demand for commercial office, retail, and education space and facilities? 

c.   Will employers be pressured to compensate their employees for use of the employees’ residential real estate? 

d.   Will there be a sustained reduction in the demand for personal autos, commuting, public transportation, and traffic congestion? 

e.   Will sustained dramatic increases in “@D” “move the needle” on greenhouse emissions and global warming?

f.    Will we become even more reliant on IT and communications and therefore be more at risk from poor cybersecurity and resilience?

g.   What will we learn about the gaps between an in-person experience and a virtual one: gratification of the soul, the creative spark that comes from serendipitous in-person contact, etc.? And, closing those gaps?

2.) Emphasis on Efficiency trends toward Emphasis on Resilience

More resilient critical infrastructure.

a.   Energy (electricity, oil, solar, wind, etc.)

b.   Water

c.   Communications

d.   Transportation

e.   Healthcare 

More resilient supply chains. 

a. What will we learn about effectively de-risking supply chains, especially global ones? 

b. More geographic diversification? 

c. Less single sourcing?

d. More localization of supply and suppliers in order to shorten supply lines, more local farm-to-table in place of mega agribusiness, for example?

More resilient distribution of an institution’s resources. 

a.   What will we learn about de-risking concentrations: employees in large call centers, large factories, or large distribution warehouses, for example?

b.   More geographic diversification? 

c.   More and smaller sized concentrations: 2 geographically diverse mega locations … or 10 mini’s … or 100 micro’s … or 1000’s of “cottage industries” / “makers”?

  More resilient distribution of the population.

a.   Will we discover that life was significantly easier and safer in small towns or in urban areas? 

b.   Will the rate of urbanization accelerate, slow, or reverse? 

c.   Will there be significant population migrations?

Acceleration of automation and robotics … Less reliance on human labor

3.) Focusing on Me trends towards Focusing on Us

a.   How will the appreciation of community and collaborative security and problem-solving change and manifest itself?

b.   How will the appreciation of the freedom to travel wherever and whenever change and manifest itself? 

c.   How will the appreciation of thrift change and manifest itself?

d.   Will there be a re-balancing of sentiments towards Globalism and Nationalism?

e.   How will the appreciation of relationships with family and friends change and manifest itself?

f.    Will support for “Medicare for All,” wealth re-distribution (less income inequality), etc. trends … and the attendant need for more tax revenue … gain more support?

g.   Will the “prep’er” / survivalist movement become more widespread?

h.   Will institutions establish or strengthen their commitment to and psychological contract with employees for secure employment … or will outsourcing and contracted labor accelerate?

4.) Gradual Thinning the Herd trends towards Precipitous Thinning the Herd

a.   Will there be … and how will we deal with … a perhaps one-time bulge in bankruptcies?

b.   Will there be … and how will we deal with … a perhaps one-time bulge in opportunities to acquire customers, talent, assets, and intellectual property

5.) Reacting to Crises trends towards Preparing for Crisis

  Use and effectiveness of business continuity plans and preparedness.  

a.   Strengths and weaknesses in existing plans and preparedness? 

b.   With 20/20 hindsight, was business continuity planning and preparedness given adequate importance?  If not, why?

Use and effectiveness of scenario business planning. 

a.   What other low probability, high impact disasters might be in our future: big earthquakes, big hurricanes, civil unrest, other pandemics, and wars, for example? 

b.   Should we on a quarterly basis, “table-top” one type of disaster? And use the learnings from those to get recommendations, develop business cases, make decisions, and resource and implement? 

c.   What are the downsides and how do you … and how much do you … de-risk and mitigate and respond? 

d.   What are the upsides and how do you prepare to seize them? (For example, did surgical mask or ventilator suppliers have contingency plans for meeting extraordinary increases in demand.) 

e.   What portion of a business’s revenue is perceived as essential and how do you increase that proportion? (Note: Liquor stores are being deemed essential in some states!)

Reed Harrison

Founder & President, Antietam Strategy Partners, Inc.

March 23, 2020, updated April 10, 2020

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