Shaping the agenda

This month, we're taking a look back at the subjects of three 2023?editions of the Debrief. We'll examine how these stories have evolved since we first covered them, and how we expect them to continue developing into 2024, despite not being top of the traditional news agenda.If you like what you're reading, sign up to receive The Debrief in your inbox on the first of every month here.?

European migration policies fail to deter asylum seekers

Back in January, Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Georgia Meloni introduced a radical policy to reduce the number of migrants landing on the country’s shores. Almost a year on, her legislative efforts have borne little fruit

After riding to victory in September 2022 on a growing tide of anti-immigration sentiment, Italy’s Prime Minister Georgia Meloni set about realizing her vision to end her country’s status as “Europe’s refugee camp.” Among her first policies was a code of conduct limiting the activities of NGOs which rescue migrants in the Mediterranean, including obligating them to collect data from people aboard and force them to disembark at assigned ports.?

Almost 12 months on, Meloni herself admits her policies have largely failed, as the number of migrants arriving in Italy has almost doubled year-on-year in 2023.

“Overall, things have not improved,” said Factal’s Southern Europe specialist Jessica Fino. “[Migrant] numbers have increased despite all these curbs, and the increase was mainly driven by the number of arrivals through the central Mediterranean, which remains the main route into [Europe] and accounts for one of every two detentions at EU borders.”

The EU has implemented a series of measures in an effort to curb the number of arrivals, including signing a deal worth a billion euros with Tunisia, in exchange for the North African country stemming the flow of illegal migrants to Europe. The bloc’s parliament also preliminarily approved a new migration pact, after almost three years of debate, which sets out stricter asylum rules for frontline nations and allows individual governments to apply tighter migration rules at times of extraordinary crisis.

The legislative focus on migration in Europe this year has coincided with a shift toward the right across the region. Meloni’s election set the stage in Italy, but right-wing parties are now part of governing coalitions in Finland, Greece, Sweden and soon-to-be in the Netherlands.?

“We’ve seen some sympathy…with people fleeing war, but back home, with the economic crisis, I feel the [anti-immigration] sentiment is still the same and right-wing governments are capitalizing on this,” said Fino. “They will see the EU’s migrant policy as a win for them, because it puts more restrictions in place.”

Migration will remain high on the agenda into 2024, thanks to the political mood in Europe and numerous conflicts and climate-related crises across the globe pushing refugees toward safety. European parliamentary elections are scheduled for June and right-wing parties are scheming to gain further ground, buoyed by anti-immigration sentiment in the face of ever-increasing arrivals and the cost-of-living crisis.

“I think the influx is going to continue, the polarized debates are going to continue,” said Fino.

Tensions reign in India's Manipur

At least 175 people were killed between May and September in India’s Manipur region, after a conflict erupted between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo ethnic groups over land ownership rights. While that violence has since abated, tensions are still simmering

Hostilities began escalating in Manipur back in February, over newly-proposed legislation which would have protected the tribal status of the state’s Hindu majority, the Meiteis. The Christian minority, the Kukis, feared such a designation would allow the Meiteis to purchase land in protected hilly areas around the Imphal Valley. After several days of deadly protests in May, Indian authorities issued a shoot-on-sight order as federal forces were deployed in an effort to quell the violence.

At least 175 people were killed in four months of ensuing conflict, according to police, although some local estimates put the death toll much higher. Allegations of sexual assaults and a subsequent no-confidence vote forced India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address the issue in August, after which time the violence began to die down.

In November, Manipur’s government signed an accord with an established Meitei insurgent group called the UNLF. The development was hailed as a historic step toward lasting peace in the region, but the truth is more complex, according to Factal Senior Editor Halima Mansoor.

“The group that signed the peace agreement is actually one faction of the group by that name…and the leader of the faction is seen as sympathetic to the BJP government,” Mansoor said. “While it made a lot of headlines, the impact of that particular faction signing a peace deal might not be very widely felt. Unfortunately, I think that’s a lot of optics.”?

Moreover, while land rights are no longer engendering the level of violence seen earlier in the year, Manipur remains extremely restive. A curfew remains in place in the Churachandpur area of the state through Feb. 18 after clashes at a funeral between members of the Kuki and Zomi groups left at least 30 people injured in December.?

The ongoing conflict in neighboring Myanmar could also spark fresh fighting in Manipur, due to ethnic allegiances between groups that traverse national borders, as well as a potential influx of refugees.

“Anytime you have people crossing a border…there is a higher risk of conflict because there are vested interests, there’s shared resources, there’s space and there’s police and security,” Mansoor said.

Peace remains a distant prospect in Manipur all the while there are few tangible efforts to bring representatives from the region’s diverse ethnic groups to the table. Such an effort would be contrary to the longstanding modus operandi of the central BJP government, which has focused on assimilation into the Hindu-majority state, to the detriment of individual recognition for minority groups.

“The groups in Manipur, whether they're the Hindu or Hindu majority, Meiteis, the Christian Kukis and the Zo people, a lot of them basically want more autonomy in Manipur given its history,” said Mansoor. “With BJP on such a Hindu nationalist rampage, I just worry and really, I'm very curious, about what are the steps they take to bring major players of Manipur into the fold.”

Hope on the horizon for Haiti

The deployment of a UN-backed force is finally on the cards for Haiti, yet it’s unclear how it will be received by a country that has a complex relationship with international aid

Haiti has spent almost all of 2023 without an elected government, after the terms of the country’s final remaining senators expired in early January. Where democracy has floundered, gang violence has surged – as of late November, at least 3,960 people have been killed and almost 3,000 others have been kidnapped, according to the UN.

“There are huge concerns from residents about violence, murder, shootings, kidnappings, sexual violence towards women,” said Factal’s Central America specialist Jeff Landset. “On top of that, you also have a burgeoning cholera outbreak. Generally, it is still one of the worst places to be alive in the world right now.”

Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who came to power in July 2021 following the assassination of President Jovenel Mo?se, has continually appealed for international aid to resolve some of Haiti’s myriad and concurrent crises. In October, his calls were finally answered by the UN, which agreed to deploy a multinational security force led by Kenya and supported by several other Caribbean nations.?

Three months later, however, there are no UN-backed troops present on the ground, due to a protracted legal debate in Kenya over the constitutionality of sending soldiers halfway across the world when there are domestic issues to be resolved. A High Court in Nairobi is due to rule on the matter on Jan. 26, but any ruling could be appealed, which could further push back?the deployment.

Despite the delays, the formation of a UN-backed force has been hailed as a historic and vital decision to support a country in dire need of aid to restore law and order. Violent gangs now control at least 80% of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince, and the country’s 4,000 police officers appear powerless to prevent the groups’ practices of raping, beating and killing civilians.

“The National Police are woefully understaffed, woefully under-resourced,” said Landset. “At least some sort of international help is being focused on Haiti right now - at least somebody’s coming to realize that this country is in a terrible spot and needs some sort of intervention.”

The presence of international troops could also help direct the country onto a path toward democracy. Henry pledged to hold elections and a constitutional referendum back in 2021, but voting has been repeatedly delayed due to the security situation. If gang violence were to abate to such an extent that a vote could be organized, further political progress, such as investment in infrastructure and healthcare facilities, could follow.?

However, the deployment of the UN-backed force still has various headwinds to traverse before it can be declared a resounding success.?

“The people of Haiti look towards international help with a critical eye, especially after the deadly earthquake that occurred there. The original cholera outbreak has been traced back to some of these international relief aids,” said Landset. “I'm sure there are some Haitians who would not want this international help, and some who really do. That's something to keep an eye on.”

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