The Shape of Things To Come
Sadiq Khan has only ever dealt with a Conservative government during all of his time as Mayor. Both his predecessors had periods with their own party in government – both say this allowed them to get more done.
For the next few months at least, Khan will continue facing a Tory Government. Yet he and his team will be looking at the polls and thinking that it is only another few months – by the end of the year, they’ll be banking on Keir Starmer in 10 Downing Street.
This is important, as given how Khan’s recent manifesto reads – as if written in close cooperation with Starmer’s team – delivering on some of his key promises depends on that political alignment between City Hall and the Government in Westminster being a reality.
But let’s not get carried away just yet and return to today.
Neither Khan nor the Government have much of an incentive to want to reset relations following the election on 2 May. Government ministers have no doubt concluded that there’s little in it for them politically to play nice with London – and, in fact, quite the opposite. It will continue to land well with their core vote beyond the M25 to go hard on Khan and the city more generally. For Khan, with a refreshed mandate and calculating that the Government will be gone by Christmas, exerting energy on rebuilding relations with ministers seems pointless.
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Already we’ve seen signs of a return to the face off that has characterised the last few years. At the weekend, Transport Secretary Mark Harper - dismissing Khan’s refreshed mandate – re-affirmed the Government’s intentions to continue fighting the Mayor’s so-called anti-motorist policies. I doubt Michael Gove will be long before he renews his fight with Khan over the London Plan. Khan launched a broadside at the Government for failing to invest enough in new homes in London. Expect more heat and not much light on both sides in the weeks ahead.
Khan is a pugilist and loves a political fight - but might he act differently this time? Could he be content to run the clock down to the General Election, while pointing at a Government in its death throes? Perhaps he’ll go further and up the ante - claiming that, after the recent election, the government no longer has the legitimacy to intervene in London. That would be a bold statement.?
But beyond the politics, London still has an extensive list of priorities – from tackling deep-seated social problems, to kickstarting the stalled development sector, to ensuring the city’s competitiveness in the global market place is maintained. Yet big decisions – such as whether the Treasury will fund the Docklands Light Railway Extension to Thamesmead – seem unlikely this side of the election.
Perhaps this week we saw the shape of things to come, as Keir Starmer convened Labour’s mayors in the West Midlands, asking them to work on ten year local growth plans. The pictures sure looked cordial – but in opposition, it’s much easier to maintain harmony. It will be magnitudes harder in government. But perhaps we witnessed the beginnings of a different relationship between the Mayor and a future government – and one which could be positive for the city.