Severe German winter may cause record low gas storage

Friday, 03 November 2023

The national agency examined the impact of weather, gas imports and exports, LNG terminal utilisation and consumption reduction on gas supply in six scenarios for this winter.

In the worst-case scenario – which included an extremely cold winter similar to 2012 of average daily temperatures of up to -13C, supply stoppage from Russia, lower imports to Germany and increased exports to southeastern Europe – the BNA saw a gas shortfall of around 13 TWh from 6 February.

This would cause gas storage reserves to slump to 2% of capacity by the end of March – far below the current record low of 14.2% seen at the start of April 2018, with records having begun in 2011. This compares with a seasonal average of 38.6% of capacity for storage facilities at the end of March from 2018-22.

Exports would increase by 20 GWh/h to support lower temperatures as well in southeastern Europe, while imports would decrease by 15 GWh/h because other countries would want to export less gas.

LNG terminals would be operating at 90% of capacity, and no reduction in consumption would be possible due to the low temperatures.

“Better than 2022”

“The situation at the beginning of the heating period is significantly better than last year,” said BNA president Klaus Mueller in a statement.

“However, it is too early for a complete all-clear. A very cold winter would cause gas consumption to rise sharply.”

In three of the six scenarios examined, the available gas volumes were sufficient to secure supply, the analysis showed.

For this, imports and exports had to be at the same level as last year, with LNG terminals using at least 50% of their import capacities.

Should Europe face a normal winter, the BNA saw only low supply risks, Mueller said.

Higher storage levels

Last year, Russia stopped direct pipeline deliveries to Germany amid the war on Ukraine but some volumes are still flowing to Europe via Ukraine, Slovakia and Turkey.

Russian deliveries still covered 8% of European imports by June, Montel reported last month.

Germany’s gas storage facilities were last seen 99.7% full, compared with the 2018-2022 seasonal average of 90.5%, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.

“Last winter’s gas savings of around 20% helped keep storages relatively well-filled,” Mueller said.

Meteorologists at Atmospheric G2 said in their latest forecast earlier this week that this winter should be normal or too warm across Europe, with only Scandinavia seeing cooler conditions in January.

Source: montelnews.com