Serbia: PM designate Vucevic reveals new cabinet, confirmation vote to be on May 1

• The biggest surprise is including Milica Djurdjevic Stamenovski, leader of the nationalist Zavetnici
• However, her portfolio is completely unimportant, which implies this is rather a ploy to restrict the influence of nationalist parties
• SPS leader Dacic to return to the interior ministry, Serbia's ambassador to the US Djuric to take over as foreign minister
• No change was made to economic portfolio, FinMin Mali will keep his job
• We don't expect the inclusion of Zavetnici will lead to a major radicalisation in foreign policy
• We also anticipate no shift in economic policy, as the new cabinet is only a cosmetic change from the previous one

Milos Vucevic, the PM designate, revealed the make-up of the new cabinet, during a statement to the press on Tuesday (Apr 30). There are no major surprises regarding the major portfolios, though there will be some shuffling when compared to the outgoing cabinet. Perhaps the biggest surprise is the inclusion of Milica Djurdjevic Stamenovski, the leader of the far-right Zavetnici ("Oathkeepers"). Zavetnici is a party hat has been a staunch supporter of Russia, radically opposing any ties with the EU or the US, as well as against any recognition of Kosovo.

President Vucic likely has some deal with the nationalists, but they will not play a major role

It implies that the SNS has reached some arrangement with Zavetnici, which may carry over to the upcoming local elections on Jun 2. We reckon that President Aleksandar Vucic would prefer to keep such a radical party closely under his eye, which will likely reduce its influence while being part of the government. Djurdjevic Stamenovski will be minister for birth rates and demographics, which is a largely artificial portfolio (such policies are usually handled by the labour ministry), which shows that Zavetnici will hardly play an important role in the government. We see this as the potential decline of Zavetnici, as Vucic is too experienced as a political operator to allow a potential rival to exist freely.

Long-time partner Dacic to return to the interior ministry, a position he held until 2014

Regarding the rest, the most significant change regards SPS leader Ivica Dacic, who will switch back from the foreign to the interior ministry, a position he held in 2008-2014. Marko Djuric, currently Serbia's ambassador to the US, will take over as foreign minister, which implies that Vucic doesn't intend to cut ties with Washington. We suspect the hope is that Donald Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election, thus providing a much more benevolent tone from the US government. Bratislav Gasic, the outgoing interior minister, will take over the defence portfolio, which was held by Vucevic until recently.

No change made to economic portfolios

There will be change in the major economic portfolios. Sinisa Mali remains as finance minister, Irena Vujovic will continue as environment minister, and Dubravka Djedovic will be still energy minister. Other ministers to keep their job include Goran Vesic (construction), Tomislav Momirovic (trade), and Tanja Miscevic (EU integration). Milan Krkobabic will also continue is minister of rural welfare (i.e. agriculture). The only more noticeable new name is Darko Glisic, the mayor of Ub, who will become minister of public investment.

Government confirmation vote to take place on May 1, no surprise expected

Vucevic also announced that he has asked parliament speaker Ana Brnabic to schedule a government confirmation vote for Wednesday (May 1). We remind that the government formation deadline is next Monday (May 6). We expect no surprise during the vote, as the SNS alone has an absolute majority in parliament, and the votes of the SPS, Zavetnici and minority parties (who will have ministers without portfolio) put the majority well above 50%. The opposition will certainly vote against the new government, and we expect some passions, given the inclusion of Zavetnici's leader in the government.

Government policy likely to remain unchanged, Vucic remains the true centre of power

As far as the policy of the new government is concerned, we expect no change. The true centre of power remains in the president's office, and President Vucic is the undisputed political strongman in the country. We suppose the delay in government formation was due to Vucic's wish to draw in Zavetnici. However, we believe this is a ploy to kill the nationalists' influence at home, rather than a statement of a different foreign policy course. Naturally, many will likely interpret this as a statement that Serbia is ready to radicalise its foreign policy, given its recent diplomatic losses. Yet, we seriously doubt that, as otherwise Zavetnici would have received a more meaningful portfolio than what they got.

We expect no changes on the economic front either, given that all major figures remain the same. In a nutshell, we see this cabinet as only a cosmetic change from the previous one, so expect it to be business as usual.