September Outlook On Mortgage Rates:

An Indicator of Upward Rates:

• Watch for Fri. 9/7's Employment report; biggest economic release of the month. For the most part, the U.S. economy continued to demonstrate the expected level of solid growth in August. The economy has gained an average of 215,000 jobs per month this year, exceeding even the strong pace of 184,000 seen over this period last year. Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, were 2.7% higher than a year ago.

An Indicator on Steady/Same Rates:

• Thurs. 9/13 there will be a European Central Bank meeting. Economic conditions in Turkey have been getting worse for quite a while due to a steady decline in its currency and sharply higher inflation. Some worry that similar economic troubles will develop in other emerging market countries. The investor response has been a shift from riskier assets such as stocks to relatively safer assets such as bonds, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which has been positive for mortgage rates.

Looking Ahead:

• Weds. 9/26 a .25% rate hike is widely expected by the Federal Reserve.