September ONS Results

In the three months to September 2019, moderate growth in the quantity bought continued at 0.6% when compared with the previous three months, with all sectors within non-food stores reporting declines except “other stores”.

The quantity bought was flat (0.0%) in September 2019 when compared with the previous month, following a fall of 0.3% in August 2019.

The year-on-year growth rate shows that the quantity bought in September 2019 increased by 3.1%, with growth across all sectors except department stores and household goods.

Online sales as a proportion of all retailing was 19.1% in September 2019, compared with 19.5% reported in August 2019.

The ONS’s September retail data shows fairly robust growth of over 3% year-on-year. The BRC told us last week that they had found it was one of the worst September results for many years. They use different samples but even taking that into account, the level of divergence means they can’t both be right and from my conversations with retailers on the challenges they are facing, the ONS numbers are difficult to fully accept. Perhaps today’s findings will provide some relief for retail boardrooms, but when presented with such varying statistics, it’s hard for the industry or other observers to draw any firm conclusions about the overall state of the sector.

 Thankfully, retailers are too busy looking ahead to the most important time of the year to worry too much about the ins and outs of data-sets. With the Black Friday discounting period on the horizon, retailers are finalising plans around what product range they will offer to incentivise consumers, while trying to retain bigger margins on items that consumers really want and need. That’s easier said than done given the public expectation for significant discounts, but where possible, retailers should try to hold their nerve and maximise returns. They also have to ensure comprehensive operational support systems are in place. This has caught some out in the past when demand spikes and they will be hoping that the work done to prepare will help avoid similar issues this time around.

Full results can be found here https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/september2019