September insights into the Victorian Property Market.

Hi guys, I’m Jason Mudford from OBrien Corporate with the tenth edition of the property news for 2023.

Melbourne home prices have again advanced during the month of September according to Corelogic, which makes it seven months in a row of increases. Melbourne increased a modest 0.4% in its home values for combined dwellings of units and houses, and it again is underperforming as a capital city when comparing against the other largest capital cities of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. Over the first quarter (July to September) of this financial year Melbourne has grown 1.3% over the 3 months whereas Brisbane has achieved 3.9%, Adelaide 4.3%, Perth 3.6% and Sydney 2.5%. Melbourne home prices are now tracking 6.4% off last year’s peak of April 2022. Even more interesting is if we chart the home values of the 5 biggest capital cities of Australia pre-covid from March 2020 to now Melbourne has recorded only 3.6% growth over the last 3.5 years, whereas Adelaide has 49.8% growth, Brisbane 38.9%, Perth 28% and Sydney 17.9%. It’s fair to say Melbourne has got some ground to catch up on over the other capital cities, and the opportunity for investment in Melbourne from interstate and oversea investors looks more attractive as an opportunity in the longer term.

Inflation data for August was released on Wednesday last week and even though overall inflation increased slightly we saw annual core inflation, which strips out holiday travel and volatile items like petrol, fruit and vegetables, decrease from 5.8% to 5.5% in July. Economists are broadly expecting RBA to leave the cash rate on hold when they meet on Tuesday 3 October and CBA chief economist says he believes rates will remain on hold to mid 2024. ?

RateCity.com.au?estimates around 155,000 mortgage holders will reach the cliff by the end of the year, with another 450,000 fixed loan mortgages due to expire in 2024. To date,?RateCity.com.au says Australia has passed the "halfway point" of the mortgage cliff.

The latest research from Juwai.com which is the number 1 portal for Chinese and Asian buyers into Australia, has said that Australia is now the top destination for Chinese home buyers, followed by Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States. According to co-founder and group managing director Daniel Ho, Chinese buyers have emerged from three years of border closures with a lot of catching up to do. Australia is tracking 76% higher in inquires from China in quarter 3 of Fy23 compared to quarter 2.

Looking at the Corelogic Home Homes index over the (above graph), Melbourne Metro median prices in September for houses produced an increase of 0.3% and units a 0.6% increase. The tops three SA3 areas in Metro Melbourne for capital growth over the last 12 months are Whitehorse, Monash and Manningham. For Regional Victoria, the top 3 regions are Mildura, Wellington and Baw Baw, although, regional prices for combined dwelling types was flat in September with no increase recorded, however units increased 0.3% whereas houses diminished 0.1%.

Now, looking at the rental market, (above graph) rent increases retracted in September nationally after 36 months of consecutive increases, however the vacancy rates dropped to only 1% and to put that into perspective the vacancy rate on a 10 year average is 2.8% for combined capital cities. The housing under supply looks to certain to get worse before it gets better with total dwelling building approvals for August down 8.1%.

That’s all for this month, I’m Jason Mudford and remember the information provided is of a general nature, you should always seek independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice in relation to your unique circumstances. Thank you for taking the time to read this month's market wrap, and until next time its bye for now.

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