September Equity Research Insights

This month features insights on: CAVA Group, Alcon, Revolve Group, Wayfair, Rubrik, Tesla and Apple

iPhone16 Launch Analytics from NielsenIQ

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CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA): NielsenIQ provides insight into online orders placed at Mediterranean fast casual restaurant chain Cava. Digital Revenue accounts for ~36% of total CAVA Restaurant Revenue and outpaced overall restaurant revenue growth in FY 2023. NIQ e-receipt data captures orders placed directly from Cava or via alternative platforms like Doordash and UberEATS for a comprehensive view of CAVA online ordering. CAVA Digital Revenue is up +33% Y/Y in the 1st half of 2024, on par with Total CAVA Restaurant revenue growth for that period. ???

Alcon (ALC): Alcon has gained consistent share across both monthly and daily lenses, driven by Total30 and Precision1, respectively, which are both helping to offset losses for the brand’s higher-priced Dailies Total 1 product family. Momentum is likely to build further as in early 2025 Alcon is set to rollout the highly anticipated Precision7 weekly lenses, which will tap into an underrepresented market.

Revolve Group, Inc. (RVLV): Revolve Group, Inc. exceeded market expectations with its Q2 financial results, reporting Total Net Sales of $282.4 million, which led to a notable surge in its stock price following the earnings release. The company attributed its growth primarily to its successful expansion in international markets; RVLV was recognized as the second-largest fashion merchandise seller on Tmall Global during China's 618 shopping festival. Moreover, NielsenIQ data highlighted a slowdown in U.S. sales, consistent with the company's remarks that its international business is outpacing its domestic operations.

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Wayfair (W): Wayfair saw a steady drop in its stock after its disappointing Q2-2024 earnings last month. On their last earnings call, CEO Niraj Shah cited “cautious” customer spending in the home category during a “period of share gain.” One “bucket…of strategic initiatives” Shah mentioned as being important for Wayfair is making customers “want to buy more from us.”

NielsenIQ’s monthly report tracks the Monthly Number of Orders per Active Customer we see for Wayfair in our panel which has somewhat plateaued in recent times. While the metric has been seeing positive YoY growth since late 2023, this growth has been starting to slow down in the past few months. As Wayfair tries to use sales (like the Black Friday in July event) to appeal to “cautious” customers, we may be seeing changes in purchase frequency metrics like this, especially once the retailer launches its loyalty program this fall.

Rubrik (RBRK): Rubrik reported robust F2Q25 revenue results and raised their FY2025 revenue guidance. Outlook was consistent with the strong momentum seen in GfK Distributor data resulting in accelerating y/y growth through early F3Q, driven by Data Security-as-a-Service and Cloud Vault backup.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA): Tesla new vehicle inventory orders as a percent of total orders have reached 1.5 year lows in July following stable demand and various promotions/incentives throughout the summer. Low inventory sales indicates that Tesla has aligned production with demand and is maintaining steady order flow, both of which are positive trends. This is especially notable as the Model Y is likely in the final months of its generation and customers continue to purchase the car. It is likely that Tesla will need to maintain or increase their promotional activity to keep inventory order rates at low levels.

Apple (AAPL): The entire AirPods lineup was refreshed during Apple’s “Glowtime” event, a convenient timing given Apple’s share in Personal Headphones fell in late AUG following the end of Prime Day promotions. With the launch of two new AirPods gen. 4 models, it’s noteworthy that sales for the prior gen. 3 device have been consistently weak, with consumers instead opting for the lower-cost AirPods gen. 2, a device which originally launched over five years ago.

Learn more about upcoming NIQ/GfK Apple insight reports.

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