September Election - Now What?

As the dust begins to settle on the elections, the second in 2019, we begin to make sense of the results and speculate about what’s next. One thing is clear: the elections did not provide a clear-cut answer as to who Israelis want to lead them in the coming years; no bloc received a majority of 61, which would allow it to easily form a government. With the split vote, and one party in the middle with the power to determine who would be the next Prime Minister, there are several possible paths forward.  

But before we look ahead, let’s take a look back and review the results and what they mean for the key players:

● Netanyahu’s magic is on the decline. The so-called “magician” of Israeli politics, comes out of this election weakened, with his party having lost about 9 seats in total and short of 61 seats that would allow him to form a government. Of all the parties running, Netanyahu’s Likud has lost the most since the previous elections in April.

● Gantz’s Blue and White also lost 3 seats, but has largely maintained its strength; moreover, it is now the biggest party, exceeding Likud by 2 mandates.

● The Joint List, consisting of the Arab parties, has gained seats and is now the third largest party. The voting percentage in the Arab sector grew by more than 10%, bumping its representatives to a position of influence.

● The other winner of this election is Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitinu, which grew from 5 seats to 8. Not only that, but Lieberman has kept his lips sealed as to who he would recommend - Gantz or Netanyahu, keeping him in the coveted position of king-maker. Resistant to be lumped in with any bloc, left or right, Lieberman is the wild-card.  

So what’s next? Well, the Israeli political landscape is at an impasse. Here’s why:

● With no bloc securing the needed majority of 61 seats to form a government, there’s no clarity as to who would get the mandate from the president to begin negotiations with other parties and establish a coalition. Currently, Gantz has 54 recommendations and Netanyahu has 55 - both short of 61. Lieberman has recommended no one. President Rivlin has invited both Gantz and Netanyahu to deliberate, most likely to begin talks for a broad, unity government with Likud and Blue and White, but this government has a few challenges ahead of it.

● First, Gantz has made it its key campaign promise to not sit with Netanyahu, as he is under the cloud of indictments for corruption. To backtrack on this promise and sit with Netanyahu in a unity government is a huge risk for Gantz, likely to cost him his political career. 

● While Gantz is willing to sit with Likud without Netanyahu, the chances of this happening are also slim. Netanyahu is not likely to step down from Likud leadership, and at the moment, it doesn’t seem that his party is considering ousting him. Netanyahu is firmly entrenched in Likud.

● Therefore, for a unity government to exist, Gantz either has to backtrack on his entire platform of “no Netanyahu” and lose credibility with his constitutes, or Likud has to do what is almost unthinkable for the party and rebel against Netanyahu. Both scenarios are doubtful. 

● If not a unity government, then it falls to Lieberman to choose. With his 8 seats, he can present either Gantz or Netanyahu their government. The problem is that Lieberman has declared that his party will not join any government other than a unity government with Likud and Blue and White. Furthermore, it will not sit with the Ultra-Orthodox parties, which would be a central element of Netanyahu’s government, nor will they ever sit in the same coalition as the Arab parties, who would have to be part of Gantz’ government, in lieu of Likud. Lieberman is the most sought-after person in Israeli politics right now; he’s meeting with Gantz, and is probably taking calls from Netanyahu (or refusing them and making him sweat). There’s no doubt Liberman is having the time of his life right now.

● Basically, the entire political system right now is made up of parties and leaders that won’t sit with other leaders, which in turn, won’t even consider sitting with other parties, and so on. Many of these leaders have staked their careers on these guarantees. This tangle seems unresolvable, which is why the possibility of a third election does not sound so far-fetched.

 And so, as President Rivlin invites Netanyahu and Gantz to sit and resolve this mess, pushing for a unity government, the waiting game begins: who would give up first? Will Gantz default on his promise and join Netanyahu? Will Likud leaders’rebel against Netanyahu? Will Netanyahu pull some new trick from his sleeve, with his hearing in front of the Attorney General less than two weeks away? Will Lieberman stick to his refusal to recommend anyone or will he give in? Who will blink first?

Shay