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September 2024: gold all-time high

Wojciech R. Bolanowski, MD PhD

Chief AI Officer, retail and digital banking, payments and fintech in EU, GCC, SEA, enthusiast of cross-border banking

发布日期: 2024年9月25日

This decade 'Golden September' used to be for dollar, not gold

The concept of “Golden September” in the context of investment gold is rooted in the past, but today September performance of gold is extremely weak. Historically, looking back thirty years of so, the price of gold usually ?rose in September (i.e. the closing price of the month was higher than its opening). However, for the last seven years (since 2017) the price has fallen every September. Interestingly, September is traditionally perceived as a month of strong US Dollar. This year we will see the return of Golden September in its good old meaning. Gold has grown almost 5% since the beginning of the month (from $2,503 to $2,626 per ounce). There is a good chance that the gains will be maintained through the end of the month. For more interesting thoughts on Golden Septembers in the past and this year you can visit moomoo.com’s and their respective post.

Average monthly change of gold price for last seven years (2017-2023) vs. 2024 performance; gold performs better than average this year (except January); data source:moomoo.com, xe.com

All-time high gold

Just one look at the chart above makes it crystal clear: 2024 is an exceptional good year for those, who invested in the asset at the beginning of the year. Since January 1st, 2024, the asset has grown by 27% already. Except the bumpy start in January, every other month performed better than seven years’ average. March , when gold price rose by almost 10%, is the leader with 8.2pp growth delivered over the average. Even June 2024, the month with minute but measurable drop of 0.1%, is better than seven years’ old average (-1.1%). This month looks impressive. The difference between average September change of price (-3.3%) and this year achievement of 4.9% growth has equaled already March record. We still have a week ahead, which can possibly bring gold price higher. September 2024 is truly the golden one. With virtually continues ride up year 2024 produced several all-time records in the price of the asset. Early morning today (I am writing this post on September 24th, 2024) the price of golden ounce reached level of 2,600 USD? and is still well above it in the evening. This is a record high price in the whole greenback vs. gold history.

Gold price in USD for the last decade, note the extraordinary growth trend in 2024, with a record high September; data source: ?xe.com

Asset performance from August 24th to September 24th, 2024

September 2024 was also a good month for US dollar. All assets from the bucket (except the gold champion) lost their value in relation to American currency. European fiat currencies, Euro and Z?oty, dropped similarly, losing 0.8%. Bitcoin’s fall was worse, losing 1.2%. Israeli Shekel was the worst performer. The escalation of the local conflict, with Israel deploying remote attacks to Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, did not help the currency, which lost 2.6% during last thirty days. If asset performance can be interpreted as a marker of the wellbeing of specific markets I could say that European September was much better season that it happen to crypto-world and Middle East.?

Gold, Euro, Bitcoin, Shekel and Z?oty price for last 31 months. The chart showing relative change of the average market price in USD; data source: xe.com

Shekel and Z?oty are converging

I have been monitoring selected assets for thirty one month’s already. During this time span the price gap between Israeli Shekel and Polish Z?oty is closing continuously. On February 24th, 2024 Shekel was worth more than 30 cents; Polish Z?oty was less than 25 cents. Israeli currency was worth more than 25%. Today, the difference between the two is only 1.5%. The converging trend is shown on the chart below. If the trend continue, we will soon see Z?oty worth more than Shekel. Apparently, neighboring war in Ukraine is less destructive to Polish money than war with Hezbollah to Shekel.

Price of Shekel and Z?oty (in USD) during last 31 months; data source: xe.com

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