Sept 5am, FX/BTC Update

Euro-1.1585. Today's range is almost 70 points and with the 10-day average daily range at 76 points, I don't expect much in terms of any new high or low made today. The 1.1600 to 1.1500 zone is very important for the longer term trend for the Euro, so I expect a good battle between the longer term bulls and bears in here which translates into a lot of back and forth trading with a 1.15 handle before trend emerges. This range trading could last a few days to a couple of weeks, but I do expect a strong trend to start by October which will carry through til the end of the year. For today, resistance lies at 1.1605/10 and then 1.1625. Support comes in at 1.1550/45. Below 45, Euro will probably only decline to about 1.1530. My bias is for the 1.1500 level to be tested again so look to sell early morning strength above 1.1600 with stops above 1.1625. 1.1500 should be tested by the end of the week. This weeks range is exactly 100 points and with the 10-week average weekly range at 183 points, we have 83 points of range expansion which would target a low of 1.1446 or a high of 1.1712 obviously depending on which side breaks. I can make a case for either scenario.

BTC-6975. Well, just like every other rally since the start of the year, just when it looks like BTC has turned a corner, the mysterious group of whales who just sucked everyone in long, come in and whack the market. But, all they've done is just knock BTC down to levels to buy for the bigger picture, which is probably what they are looking to do with a big figure price between 69 and 68. The move lower last night happened in 10 minutes. The bar from 5:50am to 5:55 am had a high of 7333 and a low of 7150 and the bar from 6:50am to 6:55am had a high of 7102 and a low of 6898. Two 5-minute periods exactly an hour apart--seems a little coordinated.  The right hand chart is the 50x150 point and figure chart. As I keep mentioning, BTC trades very technical--even when the trade is wrong. A print of 7050 this morning clearly broke the 7100 low volume trading level and targeted a move to 6800. BTC didn't get quite get to 6800, but it did drop quick.  The yellow line just below the market is 6800 and I've had the line drawn for 2 months now. Anyway, there is a low volume trading zone between 6800 and 6600. Buy ahead of 6800 with stops at 6550. A print of 6550 will reconnect to the congestion zone between 6600 and 6000. The left hand chart is the daily chart of BTC and ETH--these are my end of day charts that includes weekend data so they are not updated for the overnight sell-off. Two things to point out--One, BTC has been rallying strongly since the Aug 14 low and ETH has been sideways to slightly higher at best(XRP and LTC have same chart look as ETH), and two, the daily ranges are collapsing. The last time the average daily range in BTC got this low was July 14, just before BTC exploded to 8400 from 6400. The bigger picture outlook hasn't changed with this sell-off--as long as above 6050, short term traders and more importantly, longer term traders should be using weakness to scale into longs.