Sep, 2024, The Latest PV Industry Info Updates, Solar Cells.
?Q: Please briefly introduce the price changes of silicon materials and silicon wafers in the PV?industry from July to August and the reasons.
?A: From the beginning of August to the end of August, silicon in the PV?industry experienced a price increase, mainly due to the low market demand and the relatively low raw material inventory. Combined with the behavior of some enterprises and the price strategy of enterprises in the planning period, the price of silicon increased from about 30 yuan in the early stage to nearly 40 yuan/kg. The second price increase occurred in mid-August, due to large purchases of some large silicon plants (totaling more than 40,000 tons), while some top companies exceeded market expectations, jointly driving the price of silicon up again.
?Q: How is the pricing of silicon in the PV?industry in September?
?A: According to the market research results, in the upcoming new round of silicon material signing prices in September, the upstream manufacturers hope to increase by one or two yuan from August, which is expected to reach about 41-42 yuan/kg. However, whether this price can be achieved ultimately depends on the acceptance of the high price by the downstream PV?power stations, especially considering whether the silicon wafer will also rise significantly.
?Q: By the end of August, what is the silicon inventory level in the PV?industry?
?A: As of the end of August, the immediate inventory of silicon was about 217,000 tons. Overall, although the inventory still fluctuates between 200,000-217,000 tons, the current inventory structure is relatively healthy. In the past, several leading enterprises dominate the inventory and each holds a large amount of inventory. Although the largest silicon enterprise has a high inventory, it has its good financial condition, strong supply capacity, and no excessive price sales pressure. The other three medium-sized enterprises have stable inventory levels, which shows the balanced supply and demand relationship in the current market.
?Q: What is the current polysilicon inventory situation?
?A: The current overall inventory structure is quite good, which supports the recent strong trend of market prices.
?Q: Compared with the second quarter, what is the change in the supply and demand trend of silicon wafer library?
?A: The supply and demand trend of silicon wafer storage in July and August has weakened, and it has been in an emergency state since July, and the actual output has dropped to about 128,000 tons.
?Q: What is the expected production volume of polysilicon in September?
?A: Based on the current situation, the expected polysilicon production in September is about 130,000 to 131,000 tons, with A very limited increment.
?Q: What are the reasons for the decline in silicon wafer production?
?A: The main reasons are three unexpected enterprises that cut production or stopped production, including the resumption of A enterprise in Xinjiang until September, an enterprise in Qinghai that will only open two and A half workshops, and an old enterprise in Xinjiang that completed the production plan at the end of August.
?Q: How to predict the polysilicon production trend in the next few months?
?A: Production will continue to increase in September to about 130,000 tons; it is expected to climb to about 150,000 tons in November. In addition, the new 200,000 tons of production line in Baotou will bring some increase at the end of 24, but due to the long climbing time, the output may be fully released in the first quarter of 25. At the same time, considering factors such as production and maintenance, the annual output is expected to fluctuate periodically and is expected to recover to about 770,000 tons.
?Q: Where is the source of the September increase?
?A: The increase mainly comes from the resumption of full production enterprises in Xuzhou and Inner Mongolia and a leading enterprise in Sichuan. Although the production of Sichuan decreased by about 2,000 tons last week due to the power failure, it was confirmed this week that the production will still be full in September and remain at around 56,000 tons.
?Q: What about the number and capacity outlook of canceled projects in 24-25?
?A: Up to now, nearly 700,000 tons of projects have been canceled, but by the end of 2025, the domestic polysilicon production capacity is expected to drop from the peak of 3 to 3.1 million tons to about 2.3 million tons, which can still meet the demand of about 1000GW, and the capacity is still excess.
?Q: What is your forecast for the price of silicon in the PV?industry chain this year?
?A: I personally expect that the price of silicon in the PV?industry chain will reach about 42 yuan in October this year.
?Q: What is the reason for the price rise?
?A: The main reason for the price increase is that the overall market demand for polysilicon is more active, and the amount of digestion has increased compared to the previous one, which is good news in the bad news. In addition, silicon wafers affect market expectations, bringing hope.
?Q: What are the recent developments in the silicon wafer market? What is the actual feedback on the price increase?
?A: Recently in the silicon wafer market, the collective price increase of the top enterprises appeared. Initially, an L enterprise took the lead in announcing the price increase on the 29th. After receiving the news, it and the other three or four enterprises decided to unify the price increase to 1 yuan 15 yuan/piece on the 29th, with the intention to test the downstream reaction. So far, the new price has not been a real transaction, although there are media reports that some institutions have a small number of transactions, this is not in line with common sense, and most enterprises in the digestion of raw material inventory, wait and see the market price trend.
?Q: How does the current mainstream view of the silicon wafer market view the price rise storm?
?A: The market generally believes that the possibility that the price will really rise this time is very low. Especially considering that the downstream Solar cell?market is also dealing with the price increase pressure, the price of 1.15 yuan/piece cannot be accepted, and it is more likely to maintain the price range of about 1.1 yuan.
?Q: What were the main changes in the silicon wafer market in September?
?A: In September, the production reduction in the silicon wafer market was relatively obvious, among which the overall operating rate of one leading enterprise only reached 50 to 60%, while except for one of the four integrated enterprises, the rest was basically reduced or remained stable. In addition, a company in Shanghai will continue to cut production and has been cut for two or three consecutive months.
?Q: How is the construction situation of specialized enterprises and ordinary enterprises?
?A: Except for those specialized enterprises with full production and an operating rate of about 80%, most enterprises currently maintain normal production conditions. The inventory structure of specialized enterprises is biased toward large-size silicon wafers, and the demand for large-size silicon wafers is expected to decline.
?Q: How about the production and inventory of silicon wafers of different sizes? What is the silicon wafer inventory and price forecast like?
?A: In September, the output of P-type silicon wafers will continue to decrease to 7 to 8GW, and the output of each head company is either used up, or the highest amount is only 10%. The pricing of large-size silicon wafers may be reduced due to its large inventory; on the contrary, the inventory shortage of N-type 8-inch silicon wafers may change the overall inventory scheduling structure. As of Last Friday, the total inventory of silicon wafers was about 40.3GW, mainly concentrated in the hands of a few leading companies, while some of the integrated enterprises reduced their silicon wafer inventory by converting the loss of inventory into components. Forward production scheduling is still expected to fluctuate between 4 and 55GW, but given the high overall inventory of the industry, there will not be a large outbreak this year. In addition, it is expected that the price of silicon wafers will be high at around 1.12 yuan this year, and by the Spring Festival in 2025 may fall to about 1.06 yuan, the price of silicon wafers is unlikely to fall below 1.05 yuan.
?Q: What is the price and production schedule of solar cells?
?A: Solar cell?prices have been falling recently, but there are market rumors that Solar cell?manufacturers are considering raising prices. The actual Solar cell?production in August was about 54GW, but it is expected to decline slightly in September to about 51GW. However, many Solar cell?factories are renegotiating their production scheduling plans due to changes in the silicon wafer market, so the actual production scheduling figures may be different from expectations. Solar cell?factories generally take the first reduction of production and then consider the price increase practice.
?Q: What will happen to the Solar cell?production schedule in September?
?A: The production of solar cells is expected to change A lot in September, one of which is expected to grow by 10%, but overall, the peak will appear in the first and middle of the fourth quarter, given the existing high inventory pressure of solar cells.
?Q: What is the inventory level of solar cells and components?
?A: The overall average inventory of solar cells is about 12-15 days, and there is A certain gap between enterprises. In terms of components, in both domestic and overseas markets, the inventory is at a high level, exceeding 50GW, among which the highest is 15GW and the lowest is about 9GW. Compared with the reasonable inventory level, most enterprises are still facing great pressure.
?Q: Why are some companies having low inventories recently?
?A: Although the downstream procurement situation was not high in the early stage, at the end of the third quarter, due to the promotion of large PV?projects in Yunnan and Xinjiang, the installed PV?capacity increased, which supported the order growth of some enterprises, thus leading to the decrease of inventory.
?Q: What is the output ratio of N-type cells?
A: The output proportion of N-type Solar cells?is relatively stable, at about 85%, while the overall proportion including HCT and BC is about 88% -90%.
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