Senator LeMieux VS Ron Aledo, About Possible War between Ukraine and Russia

Last week I had the opportunity to explain what the National Security Strategy of Russia is. I did it at the famous First News radio show with the great Jimmy Cefalo. I explained what Russia military doctrine actually is as a matter of fact.?The Russian national defense strategy is based on its potential foes, terrain, capabilities, threat assessment, military making decision process (MMDP) and of course history.?Russia sees as a potential threat an invasion from the West as it already happened during Napoleon's invasion, the German invasion during World War I, and the famous German invasion of operation Barbarossa, 1941.?Based on pragmatism and history, Russian military leaders developed their National Security Strategy that calls for big buffers as in geographical separation between possible/potential foes and the actual borders of Russia.?Based on this strategy Russia needs Finland in the north to remain neutral and not a NATO member. That protects Russia's norther border from a sudden invasion and keeps St Petersburg city safe.?(St Petersburg is the old Leningrad were a terrible siege was fought during WWII).

?In the south, Russia's National Defense Strategy needs Ukraine as neutral terrain, as a Non-NATO country, with no NATO armies station there, in order to keep that needed buffer. It needs Ukraine out of NATO as a security red line. Having Ukraine as member of NATO means an existential threat to Russia. It means that Ukraine can put in mortal danger the key Navy base of Sebastopol in Crimea. Further more it can put at risk the whole of Crimea, now Russian territory since 2014. A NATO member Ukraine can place US hypersonic missiles in its territory that can reach Moscow and destroy the city in about 7 minutes. And Ukraine is the actual land gateway to the Caucasus area. Ukraine has a large land border with Russia that leads directly into the Caucasus area. That is exactly where Russia's energy heart is, where the oil is.?That is the area where the city of Volgograd is. For those who want to study some military history it will be good to understand that Volgograd is the same thing as the old Stalingrad city, where one of the most terrible and decisive battles of WWII was fought. For months during the winter of 1942-43 the German Army tried in desperation to take the Stalingrad area with Von Paulus's VI Army. The Germans knew very well that the Caucasus area was the heart of the Soviet Union, and taking it will win the war for Germany.?From the Volgograd it is easy to take the whole Caucasus area all the way from Vladikavkaz in North Ossetia to Makhachkala in the coast of Dagestan. If that happens the defenses of Russia will die. The whole country will fall apart without its oil and energy heart. Russian generals know this very well and this is why they cannot allow the US, the UK, Germany, Poland, etc., etc., to place thousands of troops with offensive weapons in a NATO member Ukraine.

I was explaining this to the great Jimmy Cefalo while the also great Manny Munoz was listening during the radio show. I was not talking as politician nor ideologue activist but as an intelligence and military "neutral" and "apolitical" observer. For over 25 years I have been studying European intelligence and military doctrine as part of my duties in the US Army in Germany, as CIA and DIA contractor analyst, as Joint Staff intelligence and operations officer, and as as intelligence advisor to the Afghan Police in Kabul. I was explaining why from the Russian view point it is so important and an existential threat that Ukraine never becomes part of NATO.??I did not touch Russian and Ukrainian history. I did not go in to the history in which Ukraine that was united with Russia in the original Kievan Rus of St Vladimir the Great centuries ago. I did not talk about how Crimea has been part of Russia since 1783 after the Czar recovered it from the Ottoman Muslims. I did not mention that in 1954 the Soviet Union declared Crimea part of the Soviet Republic of Ukraine just as a good faith act with no real political nor military relevance. And that Russia never left Crimea, not even after Ukraine became an independent state, as its Black Sea fleet was always there with overwhelming Russian presence inside and outside the Sebastopol base. ?And of course, as military observer I did not mention that Russia only took back Crimea in 2014 in response after an illegal Coup organized by Obama and Victoria Nuland removed the pro-Russian legitimate government of Ukraine (the so called “interference” and “meddling” in other countries affairs that the press only sometimes like to talk about). ?I was just stating the fact that Russia has a national security strategy that requires Ukraine, a country that has extensive historical, political, cultural and ethnic links with Russia for centuries, to remain neutral and out of NATO.?That is it. As former Civil Affairs US Army officer the US Army JFK Special warfare School, trained me to be able to see, understand and explain any potential foe's viewpoint, narrative and understanding of the world.

Comes former Senator George LeMieux on February 7 to the same show with the same great Jimmy Cefalo and explains that the Russian national defense doctrine is "BS" because "we are the West and we don’t invade countries". . .

Lets see, the good Senator did not give any reason why the national defense strategy of Russia is inaccurate from the military viewpoint. LeMieux did not explain his point with historical examples nor mentioned any battle. He did not care for explaining Russia ‘s geography nor strategic key interests in the Black Sea nor the Caucasus area. He just goes to the conclusion that it is "BS". Period. We need to take his word at face value. The only reason he gave for his conclusion is that “We are the West and we don’t invade” other countries.?I think the good former Senator forgets that the West actually attacks countries. And I am not talking about Napoleonic France, WWI nor WWII. The West attacked Serbia in the 90s. The West invaded Iraq back in 2003, in an unnecessary war of choice for imaginary WMDs that were not there, and the West destroyed Libya back in 2011. That war only opened the gates of the jails where the terrorists were locked up by the regime, created one of the biggest slave markets in modern times, and opened a genocidal civil war between tribes and terrorists until our days.

What the good former Senator LeMieux does not understand is that a country can not base its national defense strategy on the "good faith" of its foe or potential opponent. A national defense doctrine cannot be based on the promise of a potential opponent or the “ we promise we will be good and not invade you”.?In the same way the US considered a red line the time when the Soviet Union tried to place missiles in Cuba back in the 1960s. The US could not allow that in any circumstance. The US could not trust the "good heart" and "good intentions" of the Communist Soviet Union. In that same way that Russia today cannot accept an Ukraine part of NATO, regardless of the promises it might receive from the US it will not invade because “we are the West” and we are the good guys, as the Senator said.

Declaring the whole Russian National Doctrine just “BS” because you don’t understand it, is not a good starting point. It is like, they say today “spreading misinformation” in a very complicated military subject.? Don't get me wrong! I like senator LeMieux very much and think is a good man with many good ideas and values I agree with. But as we say in Spanish, "Zapatero a su Zapato", or shoemaker to his shoe. Staying away from complex technical military subjects is a good idea in this case.

Furthermore, many people don't see (or don't want to see) that the current government of Ukraine have been very clear stating that it will recover (assumable by force and war) Crimea. On August of 2021 President Zelenskyy said he will recover Crimea and urged other countries to support his efforts ?(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/23/ukraines-president-pledges-to-return-russia-annexed-crimea ). While today that is an empty promise, if one day in the future Ukraine is part of NATO and tries something like that, it might means Nuclear war between the US/NATO and Russia, and a potential Nuclear Holocaust beyond imagination.?Georgia already attacked Russian troops back in 2008. If Ukraine does the same in the future and is member of NATO by then, then it will not be a small regional war. If Ukraine is a member of NATO while trying to recover Crimea by force in the future, then article V of NATO might come in place and we will have WWIII and a nuclear holocaust.

Did senator LeMieux think about that? ?While there is great agreement between Republican so called Neocons warmongers hawks and liberal left wing activists that the US must confront Russia and extend NATO membership to Ukraine (actually it already happened in 2008 when NATO “welcomed” Ukraine and Georgia), there is also smart opposition to that. There are both Von Mises libertarians and Old Right paleo conservative voices out there, from US Army LTG Flynn to famous journalist Tucker Carlson, to Senator Rand Paul, and extraordinary analysts like the great Pat Buchanan, advisor to Presidents Reagan and Nixon, that do understand the complexity of this issue. Instead of learning what the military doctrine and situation of the world is from neocons warmongers in the "right" and liberal activists in the "left" with little military experience , people will do a great good to themselves if they listen to the true experts and/or those who at least understand the world without the stigma and prism of the usual ideologies in DC. I highly recommend the brilliant articles of the great Pat Buchanan as starting point. The brilliant Nassim Nicholas Taleb, creator of the Anti Fragile theory and the Black Swan, is a great choice as well. For those who can read Spanish, I recommend Juan Manuel de Prada from Spain. It will be very well invested time. Some times our politicians must understand that the world, military doctrines and geopolitics are a little more complex that just "BS".

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