The Semi-Autonomous Vehicle Revolution

The media drumbeat is getting louder with an increasing number of stories predicting that we are close to a time when all cars will be driverless. The press and many analysts are usually wrong about what will the future of driving will be and what it could mean for your business.

By assuming we’ll have fully autonomous vehicles, people are jumping to a lot of false conclusions. Will we cede control to our new cars entirely? Will people buy a Porsche that does not have a steering wheel? I sincerely doubt it. When sweeping technological change comes, it is hardly the universal 180-degree turn that science fiction thrives on.

The main reason for this is that I, like many people out there, enjoy driving. What I don’t enjoy — and I am joined here by the countless businesses that rely on deliveries from commercial drivers, as well as the insurance companies that have to do massive payouts when collisions occur — are accidents.

Many of today’s new vehicles are already semi-autonomous vehicles that will not let you crash into someone who has rapidly stopped in front of you. As more and more cars become equipped with better and better smart technology, we will see a significant reduction in accidents.

There’s a lot to be said in favor of these “smart” systems that will help steer our cars and commercial vehicles, just as autopilots do on our passenger and cargo planes. First and foremost is the preservation of life and property. We may wax sentimental about how nothing can replace the “human touch,” but there are myriad circumstances when a computer override would have saved lives.

There were over 3,000 car accidents in 2013 that were the direct result of passenger distraction, to wit: using a cell phone. In 2012, over one-third of the 33,000 traffic fatalities were the result of alcohol intoxication. These are bad habits that a self-driving car would not be burdened with, and these easily preventable collisions would be avoided.

We’ve already become adjusted to the idea of using autopilots to improve the safety and ease of air travel, and it’s not as though pilots have ceased to exist. But after the German wings tragedy in March, there was a renewed call among aviation experts and industry watchdogs to install automatic systems that can seize control of a plane.

When a pilot is incapacitated or acting with malicious intent, the benefits of such a system are obvious. If pilots can be — not phased out — but complimented and aided by computers, then why not commercial drivers, whose long, monotonous routes leave them susceptible to exhaustion, road fatigue, and human error?

Semi-autonomous cars can obviate more than just human error. Sensors installed in the sides of the vehicle will soon make blind spots a thing of the past. We’re already seeing this in luxury cars with systems that alert drivers when there’s an object in their blind spot. Soon, you will not just be alerted to a potential accident, you will not be allowed to have the accident because your car will not let you change lanes pulling into another car. How is this possible? Increasingly, cars are being fitted with vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication systems, which provide a 300-yard ring around your car providing full situational awareness for drivers and for the cars themselves.

The sensors in our cars will network with city infrastructure, providing your semi-autonomous car with far more than up-to-the-minute traffic reports and updates on construction, street closures, and accidents — it will also alert you to ice on a bridge so that your car slows down before crossing the bridge, or alert you to roads with too much snow for safe travel, to name just a few examples. Just imagine how huge the boost to the economy will be after you add up all the time and money you’ll save avoiding traffic.

When your car can communicate with “smart” infrastructure equipped with sensors to monitor, say, the structural integrity of a bridge, or when your car can detect a proximate danger, like falling scaffolding or another out-of-control vehicle, you will see casualties decline impressively.

Other than the automotive industry, the sector that will most obviously be impacted is insurance. If you are behind the wheel of a semi-autonomous car, your risk profile will be dramatically different from drivers who aren’t. Over 80% of traffic accidents are caused by blind spots. The insurance industry will more than likely help underwrite older cars getting retrofitted with semi-autonomous functionality.  

As more car companies make vehicles with built-in sensors and vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems, more brands will move to retrofit their vehicles with these systems, likely leading insurance companies to incentivize their use.

You will see the premiums of drivers who do not get the upgrades to make their cars semi-autonomous go way up. Meanwhile, rates for those who ride in semi-autonomous vehicles go way down.

This sort of widespread change to the insurance industry will disrupt areas of business that rely heavily on insuring their products and employees. Companies that use semi-autonomous delivery vehicles will be able to lower their prices. Those that make the switch will be at an advantage in competing with companies that still use obsolescing transformational technology — who in addition to paying higher premiums, will have to deal with lateness and loss of inventory.

And let’s not forget about semi-autonomous semi trucks.  I have consulted with Daimler Trucks on the subject and working together with Freightliner they recently had their first self-driving commercial truck receive a full license to operate on public roads. There will be a human on board, making the truck semi-autonomous, but this is a step in the right direction for both increasing safety and reducing gas and emissions. And let’s not forget reducing commercial vehicle insurance rates by reducing and eliminating accidents. It isn’t hard to predict that soon we will see many commercial vehicles become semi-autonomous.

Semi-autonomous vehicles will have a big impact on healthcare.

It’s a Future Fact that semi-autonomous cars will change health care. Knowing that in the near future we will eliminate 80 percent of accidents, health care providers and hospitals will have to rethink their emergency room strategies. With such an enormous drop in traffic accidents, emergency rooms will see time and resources free up — medical professionals will be less burdened and will be able to refocus their attention on other threats to our wellbeing.

When the improved technology of the semi-autonomous vehicle revolution makes your car a part of the Internet of Things (IoT), that technology will inevitably need protection. IT security providers will line up to develop the best software they can provide to stave off hackers who would try to take control of your vehicle remotely or use your car as a channel to access your personal devices and, consequently, your personal information. This SaaS-on-wheels field may be nascent now, but it’s going to become in very high demand.

So, are drivers about to become obsolete? Yes and no. There will always be drivers, but it’s going to become a lifestyle and business choice to keep human hands on the wheel. And that choice is going to happen much sooner than you think.

Now is a good time to start thinking of ways in which the semi-autonomous vehicle revolution is going to change the world, and specifically, how it’s going to change the way you do business.

?2015 Burrus Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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DANIEL BURRUS is considered one of the world’s leading technology forecasters and innovation experts, and is the founder and CEO of Burrus Research, a research and consulting firm that monitors global advancements in technology driven trends to help clients understand how technological, social and business forces are converging to create enormous untapped opportunities. He is the author of six books including The New York Times best seller Flash Foresight.