Semi-Autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market Trends, Demand & Forecast by 2030

The global semi-autonomous bus market size is projected to reach 71,682 units by 2025, from an estimated 23,613 units in 2020, at a CAGR of 24.9%. The global autonomous bus market size is projected to reach USD 791 million by 2030, from USD 2,773 million in 2024, at a CAGR of 23.2%.

Factors such as a rise in road accidents, shortage of drivers, government regulations regarding safety features, the need for efficient bus operations, and the increasing need for efficient yet feature-rich modern buses to drive the semi-autonomous and autonomous buses.

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The shuttle segment is expected to be the largest market during the forecast

The shuttle segment is expected to dominate the autonomous bus market, as these are already commercialized. Many companies such as Navya, EasyMile, and Local Motors have developed self-driving shuttles. Successful pilot programs of autonomous shuttles across the world are indicating that shuttles could be a practical solution to the gaps in traditional public transport. For instance, EasyMile, a French autonomous shuttle provider, claims to have deployed the most number of such shuttles globally than any other company.

The ultrasonic segment is estimated to lead the market during the forecast period

The ultrasonic segment is projected to have the largest market share in the semi-autonomous bus market by volume. Ultrasonic has a short-range and small Field of View (FoV). Hence, many ultrasonic sensors are used in semi-autonomous and autonomous buses. Ultrasonic sensors are typically used for short-range object detection, which is applicable for parking ADAS features such as intelligent park assist. The cost of the ultrasonic sensors is less than other sensors. Currently, the cost of LIDARs is high, and generally, they are not installed in level 1 and level 2 semi-autonomous buses.

Asia Pacific market is expected to register the fastest growth during the forecast period

The Asia Pacific region comprises countries, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, which have a technologically advanced automotive industry. The Chinese bus company, King Long, developed a self-driving shuttle with the autonomous platform by Baidu and started first-ever volume production of these shuttles in June 2018. As China, Japan, and South Korea are capable of adopting such technology and produce on mass-level, the region will have a significant market share in the autonomous bus market. Apart from these testing and trials, the region is heavily dependent on buses as the public transport medium. Thus, recent developments in autonomous technologies and quick adoption of the technology would help the Asia Pacific market to grow rapidly.

Key Market Players

The global semi-autonomous bus market is dominated by major players such as Continental (Germany) Bosch (Germany), Aptiv (UK), AB Volvo (Sweden), and Denso (Japan).

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