Self-Driving Cars - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

They go by many names ~ Self-driving cars. Autonomous vehicles. Uncrewed cars. Robotic autos. No matter which moniker becomes the standard that we all use, the first vehicles-of-the-future are here now. We are witnessing the tipping point where the old order of automotive technology is about to be replaced by a new one.

Over the next few decades, the American love affair with the automobile will undergo profound changes. Our cars will start to do things for us that we now do for ourselves. Today, the act of driving is a very personal thing, almost a way of scrolling your signature onto the road. Tomorrow, our individual driving styles will be replaced by a safer, if more boring, high-tech uniformity that will come with autonomous vehicles.

I’ve spent some time considering how the roads of tomorrow might look when autonomous vehicles replace human-driven ones. What follows is my take on The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of autonomous vehicles.

THE GOOD

• Internet of Things will rule – IoT will manage what happens on the roads. Autonomous vehicles will "talk" to each other. They will communicate with traffic lights. They will even interact to the businesses along the sides of our streets. The rest-stops will tell your car about specials for breakfast. When your car's battery gets low, charging stations will bid for your business. GPS will continually recalibrate to the quickest route based upon new and relevant variables. And it will all be done without the person in the car doing very much.
• Picture this - When your car will change lanes in the future, it will inform the cars around it of its intent and the other cars will gently part way to let your car merge in. As you picture that, consider that you could napping in your vehicle through all of it!
• Car-related fatalities will plummet – The root cause of accidents is usually distraction, inconsideration, unneeded hurrying, and recklessness. All of which are very human traits. Once autonomous vehicles eliminate these variables from the act of driving, car accidents will become a thing of the past. 
• On-demand models – Buying and owning a specific car will disappear, replaced by a rotation of vehicles that strike one's fancy. Got a great bonus? Order a Jaguar and one will drive itself to your house for the month. Big date? The Bentley will be over at six, then drive itself home after it drops you off at the end of the evening. Things a little tight? Text in for a Kia Soul for the next few months, it’ll drive itself right over. 
• They will be clean – The trend toward electric cars will continue to evolve. With the potential of harnessing sun power and other renewable source as part of that trend, the automobile's contribution to climate change will plummet. Good stuff.
• Best of All – NO. MORE. TRAFFIC. JAMS. Well, for the most part. Read on...

THE BAD

• The inevitable bugs will be really bad – Autonomous vehicles will be ruled by software. And software always has bugs. The human causes of accidents will be replaced by extremely-rare-but-dangerous software glitches. Improperly written code could cause a small percentage of cars to malfunction and instigate traffic jams, or even fatalities.
• "Car Potatoes"... – Travel time will become work and play time. Dial into a conference call. Answer your e.mails on the way to work. Play a video game. Perhaps watch the next Dr. Who in your Netflix queue. 
• But, this will make the car yet another outpost of human sloth and laziness. Today, you at least need to be awake to operate a vehicle. Tomorrow - "car potato" may become a term.
• Insurance… how? – When there are no more human drivers, insurance will become a trickier proposition. Who will the insurers insure? The software developers? The car-maker? The person(s) in the vehicle? And since accidents will be exceedingly rare, a premium payment would only be a few pennies per year. Talk about business-model disruption!

THE UGLY

• The police will have a “feature” – I suspect that autonomous cars will be installed with a feature that allows the authorities to command a suspect's car to instantly lock you inside your vehicle and drive you to the police station. Once someone is “found”, the police will simply stand outside the precinct and wait for his car to drop him off.
• The potential misuses of this sort of feature opens up an abundant list of troubling scenarios from a civil liberties perspective.
• No more split-second decisions – If given a choice between hitting a deer versus cutting off a school bus next to me, I like to think I would peg the deer and spare the lives of the children. Will the cognitive mind in an autonomous vehicle have quick decision-making abilities with a moral dimension? Very unlikely.
• Noteworthy opt-outs – Some countries will likely opt-out of the whole thing. Somalia, North Korea, Zimbabwe are examples of backward nations that will likely opt out of implementing autonomous vehicles. Lack of modern infrastructure, a demagogue appealing to his country’s “proud and revolutionary human drivers,” as well as money allocated for enablement being routed to a Swiss bank account will be the respective reasons for opt-outs.

STILL, IT'LL BE.... BETTER

It won’t be long before we recognize that leaving driving to humans was a dangerous practice. Think of it - we leave the operation of heavy, high-velocity vehicles carrying gallons of explosive fuel to texting teenagers, drunken businessmen, ladies applying mascara, and that guy who always insists on being the fourth one through the red light.

Tomorrow, we will leave it to the cool, rational, and safer cognitive minds of Artificial Intelligence.

In summary, autonomous cars will be cleaner, safer and offer us more variety in our lives. Embracing this new automotive future will be exhilarating. May it come quickly!

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