Seeking Structural Stability

The final weeks of what has been a long, maybe over extended, unstructured summer. Kids are embarking on an uncertain and anxiety inducing education resumption. Parents, as at the end of every summer break, question if enough experiences were enjoyed and try to cram in activities along with back to school shopping and organizing. 

With the return to school structures, parents can also return to economic service and work. Government employees are eager to get back into a routine, at least until there is a classroom sniffle or RSV that sends an entire class cohort home and forces a 48-hour family isolation. 

These are disrupted times and disrupted economic structures. Winding down an active stock market earnings week and the numbers for online and stay at home retailing of the big box mega stores is unprecedented. Consumers have clearly shifted to online retail, and guidance would suggest there is no going back from this position, to the disadvantage of smaller physical local businesses. Here we see the further separation of two economies: local small business and equity markets.

The period of forced isolation has caused long seeded challenges to our future, beyond our k-12 students lost semester. Post-secondary attempt social distancing and online learning in what promises to be a challenged education experience. 

Graduating post-secondary students are missing employment opportunities and professionals seeking necessary experience from lawyers, accountants, engineers and medical students have all lost 9-12 months of training. Experience vital to their vocation and a gap that cannot be replaced, underscoring future workforce concerns. 

There are unintended compounded competitions. As businesses suspended operations maintaining permanent staff was a challenge, investing in future workers and training became a non-priority. Students were furloughed and now are competing for spots with a double cohort as the academic schedule dovetails cohorts and resumes.

Small business, in complete contrast to publicly traded retailers, is seeking stabilization to demand so they can properly forecast and plan. Until there is viral remediation; which is likely many months after a successful vaccine/ test is approved – the economic-ground will remain unstable. 

Governments attempt to wind down their stimulating spending; but the policy timing is wrong. Programs should have been tapered when our seasonal economy was budding, not when it is in twilight. 

Friction will surface as political operatives start to position for achievement acknowledgement and differentiation criticisms. Even friction within parties is hard to suppress as we have witnessed with the resignation of Federal finance Minister Bill Morneau. 

Now is the time for voices to emerge. Practical approaches, outside the constraints of the political arena. Considerations of social obligations and business growth accelerants. New voices untainted through this process. The next two quarters will set the framework for the subsequent dozen; as the larger economy recovers the short-term moves will be essential for our small business backbone.

As seen in the August 22nd edition of the PEI Guardian.

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