The Secret of Tastemaking

There's a popular refrain that goes something like: “no one really knows what they’re doing; everyone is just trying to figure it out as they go.” You certainly have heard someone say something like this.

But I actually disagree.

Sure, maybe most people are muddling through, but a select few know exactly what they’re doing.

These are the tastemakers—people like Steve Jobs, Jerry Garcia, Phil Knight. They aren’t just winging it; they have a very particular vision. They operate with conviction, often in a single-minded pursuit of something they see that others don’t (yet).

These tastemakers are what Jim Collins might call hedgehogs—people who possess a deep understanding of one big thing. They aren’t swayed by trends or the opinions of others. They’re fueled by self-belief and obsession, bordering on an unshakeable confidence. And because of this, they develop a following. Their conviction is magnetic. They’re copied, not necessarily because they’re always right, but because they’re certain enough to make others believe in their vision. They don't need the external validation.

Here’s the twist: a lot of their success can be attributed to luck. As Rick Zullo and the Equal Ventures team aptly puts it, “Fortune Favors the Focused.”

The tastemakers’ secret is that their long-term conviction—paired with focus—creates more opportunities to get lucky. This combination of belief and timing is what builds the aura of taste.

Taste, then, isn’t just about good judgment; it’s about a deep-rooted conviction sustained over time, occasionally validated by luck. And when you’re right (or lucky) enough, you develop social influence. Then even your missteps start to look like brilliance.