Second-order thinking

In today’s scenario, each of us are taking multiple decisions and steps to safeguard ourselves against Coronavirus. Be it personally or professionally, much of our thinking may be based the present challenge / issue. Are we thinking deeper than that? Are we thinking about the consequences of our decisions? If we are, then we are good at First-order thinking. But, are we thinking about the consequences of those consequences? That is Second-order thinking.

A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse. 

In this Farnam Street blog on Chesterton’s Fence, named after the writer GK Chesterton, who, in his book, “The Thing” cites the classic case of the reformer who notices something, such as a fence, and fails to see the reason for its existence. However, before they decide to remove it, they must figure out why it exists in the first place. If they do not do this, they are likely to do more harm than good with its removal. In its most concise version, Chesterton’s Fence states the following: Do not remove a fence until you know why it was put up in the first place.

The first step before modifying an aspect of a system is to understand it. Observe it in full. Note how it interconnects with other aspects, including ones that might not be linked to you personally. Learn how it works, and then propose your change.

Chesterton went on to explain why this principle holds true, writing that fences don’t grow out of the ground, nor do people build them in their sleep or during a fit of madness. If a fence exists, there is likely a reason for it. It may be an illogical or inconsequential reason, but it is a reason nonetheless. Until we establish that reason, we have no business taking an axe to it.  Otherwise, we may end up with unintended consequences: second- and third-order effects we don’t want, spreading like ripples on a pond and causing damage for years. Unless we know why someone made a decision, we can’t safely change it or conclude that they were wrong.

How much of second-order thinking is going in to the decisions each of us are making in these trying times?  How much of the current situation itself is perhaps due to lack of second-order thinking in the past? Lets resolve to better our thinking process for critical decisions…

Stay safe and healthy!