A second look at the COVID stats
In God we trust, everyone else must bring data. Since it’s increasingly difficult to trust the hyperbole trotted out by Sky News and the BBC anymore (or the utterances of any Government minister, come to think of it), I thought I’d do my own digging for the hard data. This is what the Office of National Statistics (ONS) for England & Wales provided (and they CAN be trusted).
Looking at this data (below), I note the following:
- 2020 saw around 72,000 excess deaths from COVID. 88% of these excess deaths came from the three non-working age groups aged over 64.
- I’d have to know 1,700 people within my age bracket (I’m 52) before one of them died of COVID in 2020. I’m not sure I even know 1,700 people, let alone just from that age group.
- We’ve locked down (twice) the four groups that make up the entire school-going and working population of the country. These groups had excess deaths of around 9,000 in 2020. That’s 0.02% of their population group, or one in every 5,600 people.
- In any normal year, around 1,500 people die every day. So these 9,000 excess deaths represent 6 days of average mortality.
There’s a discussion to be had whether a lockdown saves any lives at all, particularly if measured over the long term (taking into account future mortality from delayed medical screenings, cancelled doctor’s appointments, increased cancer deaths and suicides, etc). And bear in mind that a lockdown also happens to cost us ￡40 billion every month here in the UK.
I’ve deliberately not drawn any conclusions - that is for you to do - but this is interesting data to ponder.
- ANNUAL MORTALITY (ENGLAND & WALES)
This data looks like this in a graph:
2. EXCESS DEATHS IN 2020 AS A % OF POPULATION SIZE
(Excess deaths compare 2020 deaths to the average in the previous five years)
This data looks like this in a graph:
Author: Future-Proofing Start-ups at i3D Protocol by Invluencer
4 年Of course, the only real way to assess the merits of a lock down, or not, would be to conduct a random control test. Who wants to be in the control group? ??
Founder and Partner at Alkebulan
4 年The culture shift is going to take a while to get in balance, immediately post the GFC in 2008/2009 in banks, the power shifted to the risk control functions due to the regulatory backlash. Those used to looking at the glass half empty had the seats, preventing loss rather than increasing profitability became the accepted starting point. Same is now happening in the health debate. Difficult if your perspective has always been to save all lives to assess both the risk and the cost of the position, in particular re our children.
Capricorn Corporate Services UK: Director
4 年Thanks Reg, I think in years to come serious questions will be asked - what on earth were your leaders thinking. It’s a travesty of justice and a crime against humanity. And I’m not even a covid denier...
Client Services Director | Corporate Immigration Advisor | Helping UK businesses navigate the complex UK Immigration regime and compliance
4 年Wow, those numbers speak volumes Reg Bamford. Thanks for sharing some of the hard data that is so difficult to come by in a lot of the main stream media at the moment.