The Second Derivative

Data and I have been friends before data science was a thing (and before everyone & their sibling started calling themselves data scientists). Data tells me that the most important number in #covid19 #pandemic is the rate of the rate of increase (aka second derivative among #nerds like me). The rate of the rate is usually a key factor when things go #viral (based on my tech experience).

For #covid19us, we are stuck at 30-40% rate of increase (down from over 50%). So, the rate of change is about 0 right now. We need this 0 number to decrease and turn negative. This will make the rate of change turn negative (and #flattenthecurve). Closing schools/offices/etc. reduces the rate of change by decreasing contact. This protects the ancestors of schoolchildren until we develop better immunity (more than it protects the schoolchildren). Still, chances are that most Americans will catch #covid19 and most will survive, with the survival rate improving over time. The results will vary for other countries/regions,.

The best thing you can do these days is to reacquaint yourself with your family at home.