#76: There is no Second chance for India!

I am writing this article in the interest of preventing what we all know but fail to see and follow...

'The world has been hit hard by Covid -19. No one has been spared. This is a borderless disease that has no boundaries, no religion and no face'

The World Health Organization (WHO) failed to show adequate leadership when detailing the precautions that should have been taken in advance and failed to declare the disease as a Pandemic early enough, this in spite of several medical experts calling this out at least a month earlier.

While one of the main reasons for WHO's inaction and delay is the fact that it is funded by wealthy nations like China and in the end becomes a puppet in the hands of powerful nations, it is no excuse for not warning governments in advance on the risks presented by the disease.

Now as the whole world is waking up to the reality that this is not someone else's problem as the lines have been drawn in Europe and as wide as North/South America, governments and people are only now beginning to comprehend the gravity of the situation.

'For community transmission of Covid - 19 to stop, cities have to go into a lock down!'

Here in India, while cities have given guidance to Malls, cinemas, and public gatherings to be temporarily halted, many individuals and bodies are still not respecting the dictum.

India has a reputation for all the wrong reasons and if Covid -19 were to spread here, the govt will not have the resources, the skill or the will to stop the spread like was the case in China.

In Bangalore where I reside, while all Malls, cinemas and pubs were closed over the weekend, many restaurants for example in Indiranagar violated this dictate.

Remember, that if you patronise these places, then you are as guilty as the unscrupulous owners of not respecting life!

To stop/slow down the transmission of the disease, we need a complete lock down - no if's, and's or but's.

Time is running out for India, as what has been seen in other countries is:

Case...Case...Case...Cluster...Cluster...Community spread...

All this in a span of 4 - 6 weeks.

This is mainly due the Naught value of Covid -19 being between 3-5.

The Naught value of a disease signifies the rate of speed of the spread. 

Essentially one infected individual can infect 3-5 individuals and they in turn can infect another 3-5, thus as you can see the disease spreads exponentially and doubles in size every 6-7 days.

'To stop transmission, the Naught value needs to be brought down to less than 1'

Then, and only then can the disease be controlled.

Most countries have given up on this, thus the Plan B now is to delay the onset of community transmission of Covid -19 which can be successful only through a countrywide lockdown and discipline shown by all citizens.

For India to beat this disease, people must cooperate, stay indoors, limit going out as much as possible, as these are the only measures to delay the onset of Covid - 19 and ensure that our healthcare system which is already overburdened does not crash!

We have only ONE chance at this. There is not going to be SECOND!