Second Analytical Story on ‘Joshimath’ under SIGMAA — Disaster Risk Reduction Initiative

Scenarios in Joshimath as per the Reports!!

It is evident from the opinion of experts that current scenario is threatening. ?Numerous reports in media confirm the gravity of concerns. Reports suggest that these kinds of situations were anticipated earlier. Infrastructures such as houses and roads were affected significantly. Moreover, people have also been relocated to safer places considering threats. There is apprehension that current situation may aggravate if appropriate measures are not taken timely.??

It is also now high time to understand that mountain ecosystem is generally fragile. Hence, random activities in the context of either urbanization or land use / land cover transformations may not be in the line of sustainable development. Adding to this, there is also a need to understand that community awareness and participation is required to mitigate the risks and for adopting prescriptive measures. Aberration in one segment of the mountain ecosystem may affect the various aspects of it. Subsequently, it may become a root reason for triggering various forms of hazards.

Therefore, biophysical dynamics should be considered while having any development activities in the mountain ecosystem. Moreover, proper monitoring should also be there in the scenario of natural growth of urban clusters along with deciphering the demographic dynamics. This may help in mitigating the risks more effectively and precisely if there is any case of natural hazards of any kind.

A Pilot Study on Landslide Vulnerability:

A pilot study has been performed to assess the intensity of risks associated with region in the context of landslide dynamics. This study is broad in nature and has been performed with minimalistic approach in terms of considering parameters. Hence, there is a possibility of variation in findings when more insights would come in later stories of this series. But, as per the findings of current pilot study, the built-up cluster, that is, the main inhabited region is surrounded by landslide vulnerable areas. This means that there is high likelihood of getting affected by natural hazard scenarios and hence, require more robust disaster management frameworks in the region.

Validation using Sample Inventory Landslide Points:

Findings of the pilot study on landslide vulnerability in Joshimath region has also been validated using landslide inventory points. This has been done to assess the accuracy of landslide vulnerability layer. Findings seem to be in the direction of field scenarios.

Possible Inferences:

This story of Joshimath series is focused on understanding the scenarios in the context of landslide vulnerabilities as the area has already been declared a landslide subsidence zone. Understanding of the accurate field scenario would be instrumental in developing a relevant and effective risk management framework. Possible inferences from this study can be summarized as following:

v?Study in the direction of multi-hazard analysis may help in having more insights about the complexities of situation.

v?Investigation from the perspective of system sciences may help in developing accurate understanding about the link between process variables and pattern.

v?It is essential to study physical factors in sync with socio-economic / demographic parameters for developing a robust risk management framework.

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## Study is preliminary in nature. Findings & inferences may change in later part of the studies.