Signs that things aren't going back to "normal"

From the beginning of this pandemic, I've shared how the market was changing into something new. (Video from April 2020) I've never believed this was a simple acceleration of trends but a transformative moment that would create new fundamentals, compared to if the pandemic never happened.?

We are seeing that now.

Grocery e-commerce sales fell 16% YOY in May, but they are still 3.5 times higher than pre-pandemic levels. However, the repeat intent rate, or the likelihood measure that the person will use online services again, dropped by four percentage points.

41% of consumers say they intend to prepare more meals at home going forward than they did before the onset of the pandemic.

Both restaurant and grocery sales are growing. According to the US Department of Commerce, Food and Drinking places beating out pre-pandemic sales levels in May. Additionally, May grocery sales were the highest of 2021.??

These eCommerce patterns are not typical growth patterns. Furthermore, restaurant and grocery sales can't be explained by "pent-up demand," "flush with pandemic cash," or "inflation." ?

What General Mills knows

These new demand patterns require more than simple intuition to understand, let alone to act on to maximize revenue and growth opportunities. General Mills sees this. Even after a record year, they are restructuring. Why?

In a conference call with investors, Jeff Harmening, Chairman & CEO explained that

"The goal of this initiative is to free up resources from parts of our organization and redeploy them to more growth-facing areas."

While GM spokesperson, Kelsy Roemhildt further elaborated

"We are making organizational changes to ensure General Mills continues its momentum. We are investing in key areas such as digital, data & technology, E-commerce and others that are critical to our future success."

General Mills is a 100-year-old company. They realize that the market has transformed, and they too must pivot to remain relevant. They've decided they can't just tweak the company but are making a large bet that the future is different.

What could / should that future look like?

If all a company is thinking is growing servicing e-commerce, DTC, omnichannel, and social then they aren't thinking about the future. They're thinking about catching up today. Here's a tidbit to think about for the future: Forty-nine percent of consumers are putting more emphasis on selecting nutritious foods now than before the pandemic. Yet, more than half (55%) of people don't trust food stores to help them stay healthy. That's an issue or opportunity depending on your perspective for every Food & Beverage company.?

Why don't consumers trust food stores to help them be healthy?

"Why should they?" For years consumers have had items marketed to them, not for their benefit but to have product pushed on them. Additionally, consumers constantly see packaging trying to take advantage of a trend such as "low fat" , "20 grams of protein" , "0 calories" , or "natural energy" to give the impression of a healthier option. But underneath many of the foods were loaded with sugar. And several of the natural energy drinks have 300 mg of caffeine or the equivalent of 4 shots of espresso. Consumers must fend for themselves - so I reiterate, "Why should consumers trust them?"

But that's the opportunity. It's not about getting rid of unhealthy options, as even the healthiest athletes have a cheat day. It's about building a relationship and trust with a consumer, who is more than willing to share with you if you've earned it. This isn't hyper-personalization or 1:1 marketing. It's about understanding people and thinking of them first. Again, think of them first, not your product, your category, or your sales. Then you must know what drives demand and what harms demand (e.g., excessive sugar in a protein bar), build a relationship, and support it with the right assortment, promotions, pricing, and messages. This same information should also be shared through your demand planning and supply chain to align the organization around these consumption-based needs.

Just imagine how the experience, assortment, pricing, and promotions, and product flow would change if companies were trusted advisors for the consumers.

"I'm a college kid and learning how to cook for myself. What do you recommend for me to buy for the 1st week, 2nd week, 3rd week?"

"I have a dinner date where I am cooking. How can I wow him/her?"

"I am a working mother of a family of 4 with two teenage boys, highly active in sports. I have 30-45 minutes to prepare meals, but they need proper nutritional balance and some treats. I also have a weekly budget that I must stay within. What do you recommend?"

"I'm a single father with a toddler. I've always been a foodie, but I have to think of her too. Time and money are limited, but I want to appreciate food, even if I have to make other things for her."

Don't think it matters? Then ask yourself why do people trust their natural medicine or alternative medicine providers. Whether you believe in those remedies or not, it's an entirely different experience than going to a doctor or a pharmacy - and often more pleasant and personal.

The good news is through AI (and the right expertise) that this can be accomplished, whereas it would have been daunting even 5 years ago. There are plenty of opportunities to take advantage and shape the future - for those that are looking for it.

Or in the words of Lord Hudson, "I am not the only traveler who has not repaid his debt. I've been searching for a trail to follow again." We're all looking for what's next, and we've made mistakes along the way - but it's time to take that new path forward, even if we don't fully understand the path or where takes us.