Searching for tipping points

Hi all,

We live in brutal times. Times where we have reached (already!) 1.5 degrees of global warming last year. Times where the wealthiest 1% on earth have already used up the carbon budget for this year.

Also, a time when it is so easy to be pessimistic about almost anything if you are looking for positive change.

But this is luckily not the whole story. Even not when we see populist votes winning, Trump inaugurated next week, and plutocrats like Elon Musk radicalising, even not when big tech (Zuck goes full Musk) aligns with the new Trump reality. And also not when US finance leaves the biggest climate finance alliance GFANZ).

No. Although it seems all negative, many people—less outspoken, noisy, and influential—want the world to become a better place. They want an energy transition. They believe we could or should buy less, eat more healthily, and care more about each other. You could call it the undercurrent; you could also call it a silent majority.

We discovered this hopeful message when we published our ‘different-style’ economic outlook for the Netherlands over a week ago.

We (my colleague Ernst Hobma and I) started by assessing the main bottlenecks in the Dutch economy and translating them into ‘transition language’: what are the five most significant changes that need to happen to make the Dutch economy future-proof? Of course, these transitions are not unique to the Dutch economy; they can easily be applied to any economy.

Based on that assessment, we constructed a survey and hired an agency (Motivaction) to optimise it. We also held the study under a representative Dutch panel.

The main conclusions:

• Support for Change vs. Resistance: In every transition, a significantly larger group of Dutch citizens favoured change than those opposed it. On average, 50% support change, while only 15% oppose it.
• Behavioural Adoption and Transition Readiness: The largest group already adopting expected behaviours—or planning to do so—is seen in the energy transition (e.g., reducing air travel) and the social transition (e.g., engaging in volunteer work), with 22% of people in each case.The well-being transition and food transition lag behind, with adoption rates below 15%, far from the 25% tipping point where systemic change accelerates. However, including those who social norms or price incentives might influence could help bring these transitions closer to the tipping point. The resource transition (e.g., reducing raw material use) remains the furthest from a tipping point, with only pioneers taking action. Few people plan to join, and price mechanisms have minimal impact.
• Demographic Variations: Resistance to change is lowest among seniors (65+) and young people (under 25). Older adults (55+) tend to take more action themselves, while younger people are slightly less likely—or less able—to act. Higher-educated individuals are more open to transitions than those with lower education levels.

• Expectations for Action: Over?70%?of Dutch citizens expect?businesses?to act more quickly to reduce CO? emissions and resource consumption in energy, food, and resources. Most expect the?government?to improve social cohesion by keeping community centres and sports facilities open and subsidizing initiatives that strengthen local communities. However, people also think that they are responsible for getting change. We don’t have to wait for politicians.
• Meat Consumption Policies Government policies to discourage meat consumption have little support. Most non-vegetarians (68%) express?no interest?in reducing meat consumption.

We conclude that people are not stupid. They understand that we need more radical action, but most don’t know how and fear that change will worsen them.

Our call to action is simple for all Dutch citizens who consider sustainability transitions necessary:?share this message with others.?Please share it with your friends, neighbours, local government, sports club, bank, pet, the companies you buy from, and even strangers on the street. This is how social norms shift, bringing the tipping point ever closer.

It might not surprise me if similar research in other countries yields the same results: People are willing—at least a significant, silent majority are. Question number one is how to mobilise them.

And remember: don’t let yourself be overwhelmed by all the negative news. There is always a spark of hope—friends, like-minded individuals, neighbours, and family striving to improve the world for themselves, future generations, and others around the globe. Courageous people who take action, try new things and create change—not just by writing and analyzing, as I often do, but by rolling up their sleeves and making it happen.

Take care,

Hans

In my Substack, you can find a slightly shortened and slightly adapted translated version.

The whole Dutch version of the report can be found?here.