In search of leadership clarity

In our VUCA reality, leaders are gradually (and sometimes grudgingly) coming to terms with not knowing. They are starting to build models of leadership based on other fields of expertise: collaborative exploration, iterative experimentation, risk/reward balancing.

The leadership edge here is in understanding the distinct nature of your uncertainty: dilemma, paradox or ambiguity, and adopting an appropriate approach, engaging others in the solution-seeking and demonstrating clarity in your decision-making.

So let’s start with some definitions:

Dilemma – a choice between equally undesirable options, each with its own set of consequences, for example, the tension between short-term profitability and long-term sustainability.

Paradox – situations where seemingly contradictory elements co-exist, challenging our conventional thinking and decision-making. The paradox of stability and change in organisations is that we have to change, even if the objective is to stay the same, because the context around us makes it so.

Ambiguity – events characterised by a lack of clarity or certainty, with incomplete or conflicting information making it difficult to discern the appropriate course of action.

VUCA, BANI and the fog of not knowing

The VUCA environment that we are all in, first described by Bennis & Nanus in 1985, just amplifies the complexities associated with dilemma, paradox and ambiguity, exacerbating already significant challenges for leaders:

• Volatility demands adaptability and agility to respond to sudden changes in the market or operating conditions.
• Uncertainty requires leaders to make decisions with imperfect information, navigating uncharted territories.
• Complexity entails understanding interconnected systems and addressing multifaceted issues that defy straightforward solutions.
• Ambiguity necessitates tolerance for uncertainty and the ability to find a path forward, becoming comfortable with the discomfort.

Following on from VUCA, the BANI framework, introduced by Jamais Cascio in 2016, takes an enhanced view, offering additional insights into the daunting realities of leading in the modern business context:

• Brittle: Traditional structures and strategies may prove ineffective in the face of rapid change and disruption.
• Anxious: Uncertainty breeds anxiety, making it difficult for leaders to make confident decisions.
• Nonlinear: Linear cause-and-effect relationships may no longer hold true in complex adaptive systems.
• Incomprehensible: The sheer volume and complexity of information make it challenging to discern patterns and make sense of the world.

The advent of new technologies and opportunities is not going to make this any easier; indeed quite the opposite. From a leadership perspective, we are going to see a paradigm shift in what it means to be successful. The “complexity gap” articulated by Theo Dawson makes it clear that traditional “command and control” leadership mindsets are no longer sustainable. It is proving impossible to make reliable decisions, that have far-reaching and often unintended consequences, in a highly centralised manner – the variables and unknowns are too great and shifting too fast.

If we are going to face into this “fog of not knowing” then we need to do it together, in a more collaborative, humble way, filling in the gaps, looking out for each other and listening more intently to diverse voices.

In practice, this means we need to acknowledge our individual limitations (which might be the toughest ask of all) and actively work on developing new skills, behaviours and knowledge. We need to work closely with, and actively seek out, difference whilst building and embedding systems and processes that help us understand different perspectives quickly and get to the essence of the issue, often holding two or more contrary positions at the same time!

What do we need to get better at?

So what leadership qualities do we need to enhance if we are going to thrive in a world of increased dilemma, paradox and ambiguity? Here are four areas of focus for your deliberate leadership practice:

• Adaptive Leadership emphasises flexibility and resilience in addressing complex challenges. Instead of relying on predefined solutions, adaptive leaders foster a culture of learning and experimentation, encouraging flexible responses to changing circumstances. They embrace uncertainty as an opportunity for growth and innovation, continuously adapting their strategies in response to evolving conditions.

• Systems Thinking enables leaders to understand the interconnectedness of variables within complex systems. By adopting a holistic perspective, leaders can identify leverage points and anticipate unintended consequences, facilitating more effective decision-making. They recognise that organisations are dynamic systems, influenced by internal and external factors, and strive to optimise the system as a whole rather than focusing solely on individual components.

• Authentic Leadership focusses on self-awareness, transparency, and integrity; building trust through genuine relationships, fostering open communication and engagement. Those who emphasise their authenticity lead by example, staying true to their values and principles, and empower others to do the same.

• Collaborative Leadership requires an approach that is attuned to the external context and the needs of the team and organisation; it challenges the value drain of the Leadership Loopholes, moving from authoritarian parent-child to mature, adult-adult relationships. There are six key tenets of collaborative leadership: a clear North Star, valuing diverse perspectives, community bonding, broad spectrum communication, robust challenge and a solution-orientation.

How does leadership decision-making need to flex?

Dilemma, paradox and ambiguity are distinct entities and not only need to be recognised but then also approached differently. Your leadership decision-making process must flex significantly depending on which you are dealing with.? Here’s how they might differ:

Dilemma

Identify Conflicting Objectives: when faced with dilemma, first identify the conflicting objectives or choices at hand. This involves understanding the trade-offs involved in each option and the potential consequences for stakeholders.

Balance Stakeholder Interests: be rigorous and equitable in considering the needs and interests of stakeholders (customers, employees, shareholders, and the broader community). Acknowledging, fully understanding and challenging your biases about these competing interests is crucial in finding a satisfactory resolution.

Evaluate Short-term versus Long-term Impact: assess immediate benefits compared to long-term implications. We tend to have a positive bias towards short term, tangible actions compared to long term, abstract outcomes so we need to clearly articulate and consider the broader strategic goals and values of the organisation.

Paradox

Embrace Contradictory Forces: acknowledge the reality of contradictory data or viewpoints simultaneously. Recognise that opposing ideas or strategies can co-exist and may even be interdependent.

Promote Creativity and Innovation: foster a culture of creativity and innovation; encourage divergent thinking and experimentation. Even with teams who don’t see themselves as creative, emphasise curiosity and lateral thinking to explore “what if?” solutions that transcend conventional dichotomies.

Navigate Complexity and Uncertainty: expand your psychological bandwidth for variance and iteration, even pausing process if need be. Decisions need to be re-visited on a regular basis to ensure the contextual conditions are still valid and the decision criteria are solid in light of emerging and potentially conflicting perspectives.

Ambiguity

Tolerate Uncertainty: develop an acceptance for uncertainty and ambiguity, it is rarely going to 100% so be OK with 80%. Accept that complete information may not be available and that decisions may need to be made based on incomplete or contradictory data. Be clear about the process, rationale and decision; own the outcome.

Encourage Learning and Exploration: foster a willingness in your team to learn and explore alternative paths. Encourage outside perspectives, experimentation, and continuous learning to uncover new insights and opportunities.

Facilitate Collaboration and Adaptation: ambiguity is best addressed through collaborative decision-making. Leverage diverse perspectives and expertise; give teams the space to iterate and adjust approaches based on emerging information and changing circumstances.

What clarity can leaders work on?

In the face of dilemma, paradox and ambiguity, the leader’s role is to provide context, encouragement and direction in the fog. It isn’t easy and requires humility and vulnerability but there are four clarities that you can provide for those around you:?

1. Strategic Clarity – a clear North Star; a confidently articulated vision and purpose that you refer to continuously and share widely. Use your North Star to clarify decisions, priorities and strategic emphasis.
2. Behavioural Clarity – work hard to build and embed an agreed set of behaviours in your team. Consider how you support the behaviours and how you challenge contrary action; develop the positive rituals that will build confidence, comfort and courage in the face of uncertainty.
3. Communication Clarity – clear, consistent messaging, using simple language is key. Minimise acronyms, jargon and phrases that can alienate those who are less familiar or central. Don’t be afraid to repeat, repeat, repeat! Ask for summaries to check understanding, listen out for assumptions and filtered, selective hearing in your team.
4. Expectation Clarity – what have we agreed and who is responsible for what? What standards and time frames have we agreed to? How do we ensure that we meet our commitments and what are the consequences if we don’t? These are the tough leadership questions that build ownership and accountability in the fog.

When you want to find out more about the work we are doing with teams and organisations all over the world, helping create leadership clarity, do get in touch.

We are ready when you are.

The full version of this article first appeared on the People Create Limited blog.