The 'Search Engine' Parallel: A Fresh Take on Today's AI Hype Cycle ??
There's a lot of heated debate I'm hearing right now about whether generative AI is living up to its massive investment and hype. On one side, we're seeing ?????????????????????????? ?????????????? and ???????? ?????????????????????? about AI transforming every industry. On the other, a lot of the skeptics and critics are pointing out that for the ???????????????? ???? ???????????????? ??????????, we've mainly just got some "???????????????? ???????????? ????????????????" to show for it. ??
Both perspectives have merit, but this situation reminds me of another pivotal moment in tech history...
...?????? ?????????? ???????? ???? ???????????? ??????????????.
Cast your mind back to ?????? ???????? ????s. AltaVista, Yahoo, and others were the established players. Search "worked" - you could find things online, even if it took some creative keyword combinations. The common sentiment was "?????? ???? ???? ???????? ?????????????? ???????????? ?????????????"
Then ???????????? ?????????????? with PageRank. At first glance, it might not have seemed revolutionary to the average casual user. Another search engine burning through venture capital with no clear path to profitability.
?????????? ????????????????? ??
But Google's approach - using the web's own link structure rather than just matching keywords - was a fundamental shift in how we could interact with information. The initial version, while promising, barely hinted at how this technology would eventually reshape digital life.
?? ?????? ?????????? ?? ?????? ?????????????????? ???????? ??????????'?? ???????????????????? ???? ??????????????????:
? A technology that seems "???????? ????????????" in its current form
? ?????????????? ???????????????????? that can appear disproportionate to current utility
? ?????????????? ???????????????? ???????????? and monetisation strategies
? ???????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????????????? that represent fundamentally new ways of solving problems
Yes, there's undoubtedly hype and overvaluation in the current AI market. Yes, ???????? ?????????????????? ???????? ????????, and some investments won't pay off. But ???????????????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????????? based on current limitations or unclear monetisation strategies feels ????????????????????????. ??
The key, as with any technological revolution, is ???????????????????? ???????????? ???????? ??????????. Not every company will be the next Google, but somewhere in this wave of innovation are approaches that will ?????????????????????????? ???????????? ?????? ???? ???????????????? ???????? ?????????????????? ?????? ??????????????????????.
???? ???????? ???????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ???????
The challenge for businesses and technologists isn't to ?????????????? ?????????????? or ???????????? the hype, but to ???????????????????????? ???????????????? where these new capabilities might truly add value while maintaining ?????????????? ???????????????????? about grandiose claims.
We might still be in the ?????????????????? ?????? of generative AI. The ???????????? ??????????????????t - the breakthrough implementation that makes everything click - ?????????? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ??????. But that's exactly why continued investment and experimentation, despite current limitations, remains critical.
The question isn't whether generative AI will ???????????? ???????????????????? ?????????????????? [Spoiler alert: It won't...], but whether the fundamental approaches being developed today will enable ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????? ????????????????. ??
What do you think? Are we in the AltaVista or Google era of AI? Would love to hear other perspectives on this parallel.
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1 周Funnily enough back in the late 90s I was working for a UK company trying to beat Altavista at web search - using probabilistic techniques that have long since become standard in search. You're right, eventually along came Google and our search engine, clever though it was, faded into distant memory. This was the era of the dotcom boom, which feels very similar to the current AI boom - and like that one, this boom will fade to a bust and a great many of the current AI-flavoured startups and investments will never be heard of again.