Sea freight 2025: Shifting maritime landscape

After a tumultuous 2024 marked by elevated freight rates and shifting capacity dynamics, the sector enters 2025 with a stabilised yet unpredictable outlook. Key factors, including evolving demand patterns, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing capacity adjustments, will play pivotal roles in shaping the year ahead.

Freight rates, though gradually declining from their pandemic-era peaks, remain significantly above pre-crisis levels. Recent general rate increases (GRIs) by carriers on Asia-Europe routes have successfully raised rates by over 20%, and these elevated levels are expected to persist until the Chinese New Year in late January. However, a seasonal lull in demand and the introduction of new alliance networks in February could provide opportunities to secure very attractive rates.

Moderate global demand growth of around 3-4% is anticipated for 2025, driven by recovering trade volumes and steady economic activity. However, low consumer confidence and increased import tariffs in key markets, particularly the United States, may temper this growth. Additionally, subdued manufacturing output in regions such as China and Europe could limit the potential for stronger demand.

Capacity expansion and risks of overcapacity

Global shipping capacity grew by nearly 5% in Q3 2024, bolstered by minimal fleet idling and the reintroduction of vessels previously delayed by Suez Canal disruptions. With new vessel deliveries continuing at a steady pace and scrappage rates remaining low, the risk of overcapacity looms large in 2025.

Carriers, however, remain bullish, adding capacity to maintain competitive positioning. If demand fails to match this growth, the industry may face fleet rationalisation efforts, including vessel idling or adjustments to service networks. This delicate balancing act between supply and demand will be crucial in determining rate stability throughout the year.

Geopolitical uncertainties

Negotiations at US East and Gulf Coast ports could lead to disruptions and rate spikes if unresolved by mid-January, while tensions in the Red Sea present ongoing risks to vital shipping routes.

Trade policy will also play a critical role in shaping container flows. Proposed tariff increases in the United States could shift trade dynamics, particularly on Asian export routes. Meanwhile, vessel rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope has absorbed some capacity, but a return to normal operations through the Suez Canal would exacerbate supply-demand imbalances.

The sea freight market in 2025 is poised for moderate growth, but the path forward is not without hurdles, including fluctuating demand, potential overcapacity, and the continued influence of geopolitical events.

Get in touch for tailored solutions

In a volatile sea freight market, our fixed-rate agreements on popular shipping routes reduce risk and provide essential budgetary certainty.

To explore how Logicall’s fixed-rate options could support your business in 2025, feel free to DM Holly Todd Rick Lambert