Scouting the Fastball: Why Velocity Isn’t the Only Factor

"When I scouted the fastball formula was Command, Movement, and Deception"

My memo-

In the world of modern baseball, the fastball is often viewed as the crown jewel of a pitcher’s arsenal. The focus on velocity—how hard a pitcher can throw—is at an all-time high, with radar guns flashing triple digits garnering gasps from scouts, coaches, and fans alike. Yet, for those deeply entrenched in scouting and player development, the truth is that velocity, while undeniably valuable, is far from the only factor in determining the effectiveness of a fastball or the potential of a pitcher. In fact, scouting a fastball goes well beyond how hard a pitcher can throw. Command, movement, spin rate, deception, pitchability, and how a pitcher uses their fastball within their repertoire all play a significant role in determining a pitcher's long-term success.

The Rise of Velocity in Modern Baseball

In recent decades, baseball has seen a growing obsession with velocity, and for good reason. Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers are throwing harder than ever. According to data, the average MLB fastball velocity has risen steadily over the years, from 89.9 mph in 2002 to 93.3 mph in 2023, with a growing number of pitchers consistently hitting 95 mph and above.

This velocity revolution has been driven by several factors, including advancements in training methods, an increased emphasis on strength and conditioning, and the use of technology to improve mechanics. High-speed cameras, motion-capture systems, and pitch-tracking technologies like Statcast have given teams the ability to analyze every aspect of a pitcher's delivery and pitch characteristics. This has allowed for more precise training that maximizes a pitcher's velocity potential.

As a result, pitchers who throw hard are more likely to be noticed by scouts and drafted earlier. A fastball in the upper 90s or touching triple digits can turn heads, and many believe that velocity equates to dominance. However, while velocity is an important component of a fastball, it’s only one piece of the puzzle.

The Limitations of Velocity

While high velocity can be an asset, it doesn’t guarantee success. Some pitchers can throw 100 mph but struggle to get outs, while others with lesser velocity can dominate. This paradox raises an important question: Why do some pitchers with elite velocity struggle while others thrive with average or even below-average velocity?

One reason is that hitters at the highest levels of baseball have become increasingly adept at handling velocity. With so many pitchers throwing hard, hitters have adjusted their timing and approach to handle the speed of the fastball. In today’s game, a 95 mph fastball, while impressive, no longer intimidates elite hitters. What separates a good fastball from a great one often lies in the intangibles—movement, command, and deception.

Command: The Most Important Aspect of Any Fastball

Velocity can open the door for a pitcher, but command keeps them in the game. Command refers to a pitcher’s ability to consistently throw strikes and locate their pitches in specific areas of the strike zone. While velocity can make it harder for hitters to react, command allows pitchers to exploit hitters’ weaknesses by placing the ball where they can’t make good contact.

For example, a pitcher with a 98 mph fastball who struggles with command might leave pitches over the heart of the plate, allowing hitters to time up the velocity and drive the ball. On the other hand, a pitcher with a 92 mph fastball but excellent command can hit the corners, change eye levels, and keep hitters off balance. A well-located fastball on the black of the plate is far more difficult for a hitter to handle than a poorly located pitch, regardless of velocity.

Command vs. Control It’s important to distinguish between control and command. Control refers to a pitcher’s ability to throw strikes, while command is about placing the ball in specific areas within the strike zone. A pitcher might have great control, consistently throwing strikes, but if those strikes are in a hitter’s sweet spot, they won’t be as effective. Command is the ability to not just throw strikes but to throw quality strikes, and it’s this nuance that separates elite pitchers from the rest.

Movement: The Hidden Weapon of the Fastball

Movement is another crucial factor that separates effective fastballs from those that are more hittable. When we talk about movement, we’re referring to how the ball moves through the air as it approaches the plate. Fastballs can move in several directions—up (rising fastballs), down (sinking fastballs), horizontally (cut fastballs), or even exhibit tailing action (running fastballs). This movement is often subtle but makes a significant difference in how a hitter perceives and reacts to the pitch.

Rising Fastballs A rising fastball doesn’t literally rise, but rather, it resists the downward force of gravity more than other pitches, appearing to rise relative to the hitter's expectations. This is due to backspin generated by a high spin rate. High-spin fastballs tend to “stay up” and can be particularly effective when thrown up in the strike zone. Hitters often swing under these pitches, leading to swings and misses or weak pop-ups. This is why some pitchers, even with average velocity, can miss bats at an elite level by throwing high fastballs with significant backspin.

Sinkers On the opposite end of the spectrum are sinkers, which exhibit a downward movement. Sinkers have a lower spin rate and tend to “drop” more than four-seam fastballs. These pitches can induce ground balls, as hitters struggle to get under the ball to lift it. A good sinker can be devastating when paired with a fastball that rises, as it creates a dynamic contrast in movement that forces hitters to adjust their swing plane.

Cut Fastballs and Running Fastballs A cut fastball, or cutter, moves horizontally away from the pitcher’s throwing hand, while a running fastball moves in the opposite direction, toward the throwing hand. These pitches can disrupt a hitter’s timing and make it difficult for them to square up the ball. Mariano Rivera, one of the greatest closers in baseball history, relied almost exclusively on a cut fastball, which generated weak contact and broke countless bats.

The key takeaway is that velocity alone won’t fool hitters. If a fastball is straight, even at high speeds, it becomes easier for hitters to time and hit. However, a fastball with late life and movement can make even an average-velocity fastball difficult to hit.

Spin Rate: A Modern Metric for Fastball Success

One of the newer metrics used by scouts and teams to evaluate fastballs is spin rate. Spin rate refers to the number of revolutions per minute (RPM) a pitch has as it travels toward home plate. Spin rate is crucial because it affects the movement of a pitch.

High Spin Rate A high spin rate on a four-seam fastball leads to greater backspin, which creates the illusion of a rising fastball. These pitches tend to stay up longer in the strike zone, fooling hitters who expect the ball to drop as it approaches the plate. High spin rate fastballs are particularly effective when thrown up in the zone, where they can induce swings and misses.

Low Spin Rate A lower spin rate tends to result in more vertical drop, which is ideal for sinkers and fastballs aimed at inducing ground balls. These pitches are most effective when thrown low in the strike zone, as they encourage hitters to swing over the top and drive the ball into the ground.

While spin rate is an important factor, it’s essential to note that it must be considered in conjunction with other aspects of the pitch. A high spin rate can enhance a fastball, but it doesn’t automatically make a pitcher dominant. Pitchers need to use their spin rate in conjunction with movement, command, and velocity to maximize effectiveness.

Deception: Fooling Hitters Beyond Speed

Deception is an often-overlooked aspect of fastball effectiveness. Deception refers to how well a pitcher can hide the ball during their delivery, making it difficult for the hitter to pick up the pitch early. Pitchers with deceptive deliveries can make their fastball play up in velocity because hitters see the ball later than usual.

Some pitchers have “sneaky” fastballs, where the ball appears to jump on the hitter faster than expected, even if the velocity isn’t elite. This is often due to factors such as arm speed, release point, and the timing of the pitcher’s delivery. A deceptive pitcher can make an average-velocity fastball appear much faster, causing hitters to be late on their swings.

Pitch ability: Knowing How to Use the Fastball

Pitch ability refers to a pitcher’s understanding of how to use their pitches in different situations to get hitters out. This includes sequencing, changing speeds, and using a fastball in combination with other pitches to keep hitters off balance. Pitchers with good pitch ability understand that velocity alone won’t win games; it’s how they set up their pitches and exploit a hitter’s weaknesses that make the difference.

For example, a pitcher might use their fastball to establish the inside part of the plate, forcing hitters to respect that area, and then throw a breaking ball away to get a strikeout. Or, they might throw a high fastball after several off-speed pitches to change the hitter’s eye level and induce a swing and miss.

Pitch ability also involves understanding when and where to throw certain pitches based on the count, the hitter’s tendencies, and the game situation. A pitcher who can mix speeds, change locations, and use their fastball strategically will have more success than a pitcher who relies solely on velocity.

Evaluating Fastballs in Scouting

When scouts evaluate a pitcher’s fastball, they’re looking at much more than just the radar gun reading. Here are some of the key factors that scouts consider when assessing a fastball:

1. Velocity: While velocity isn’t everything, it still matters. Scouts will note a pitcher’s peak velocity as well as how consistently they can maintain their velocity throughout the game.
2. Command: Can the pitcher locate their fastball where they want? Do they hit their spots consistently, or do they leave the ball over the plate?
3. Movement: Is the fastball straight, or does it have late life? Does it sink, cut, or run? Movement is often more important than velocity in terms of generating weak contact or swings and misses.
4. Spin Rate: What is the pitcher’s spin rate, and how does it affect the movement of the fastball? A high spin rate can make a fastball more difficult to hit, especially when thrown up in the zone.
5. Deception: How well does the pitcher hide the ball in their delivery? Does the fastball “jump” on the hitter?
6. Pitch ability: How does the pitcher use their fastball within the context of their overall arsenal? Do they mix speeds and locations effectively?

Examples of Elite Fastballs Without Top-End Velocity

Several pitchers throughout baseball history have demonstrated the effectiveness of fastballs that don’t rely solely on velocity.

1. Greg Maddux Greg Maddux is perhaps the best example of a pitcher who succeeded without overwhelming velocity. Maddux’s fastball rarely touched 90 mph, but he had pinpoint command and an incredible understanding of how to use his pitches. He could locate his fastball with precision on the edges of the strike zone, keeping hitters off balance and inducing weak contact. Maddux’s ability to mix speeds, change eye levels, and exploit hitters’ tendencies made him one of the greatest pitchers of all time, despite his average velocity.
2. Kyle Hendricks In the modern era, Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs has carved out a successful career with a fastball that averages around 87-88 mph. Hendricks relies on command, movement, and pitch ability to get hitters out. His fastball has excellent sink, and he uses it to induce ground balls and weak contact. Hendricks is a master at changing speeds and keeping hitters off balance by locating his pitches with precision.
3. Mariano Rivera While Rivera’s cutter was often thrown in the low-to-mid 90s, it wasn’t his velocity that made him dominant. It was the late, sharp movement of his cut fastball that made it so effective. Hitters knew the cutter was coming, but they still couldn’t square it up because of the pitch’s late break. Rivera’s ability to command his cutter and generate weak contact made him the greatest closer in baseball history.

My Bottom Line: The Complete Fastball

When it comes to scouting a fastball, velocity is only one piece of the puzzle. A hard fastball can certainly be an asset, but without command, movement, spin rate, deception, and pitch ability, velocity alone won’t lead to sustained success. The most effective fastballs combine these elements, keeping hitters off balance and preventing them from making solid contact.

For scouts, evaluating a fastball requires a holistic approach. They must look beyond the radar gun and assess how the fastball interacts with the rest of the pitcher’s arsenal, how it moves, and how well the pitcher can locate it. Ultimately, the complete fastball is one that disrupts a hitter’s timing and induces weak contact, whether it’s thrown at 88 mph or 98 mph.

The modern game may have placed a premium on velocity, but the art of pitching remains about more than just how hard you throw. It’s about how well you can command your pitches, outthink the hitter, and exploit the subtleties that separate an average fastball from an elite one. The future of pitching, and scouting in general, will continue to evolve, but the fundamentals of what makes a fastball effective will always be grounded in a pitcher’s ability to control the game from the mound.