The ScotWind Edition

Hi everyone,

Well. That was EXCITING! But before we get to ScotWind, an explanation of what you are reading.?

So welcome to my FIRST LinkedIn Newsletter. Thank you for getting this far...????????

For those who know me, you can see I am keeping ‘on brand’…offshore wind?? , coffee ? and some metal ??. If the latter is not your inclination (shame!), but you can ignore the end of the newsletter!

But over time, expect lots of offshore wind, probably also some other renewables and energy transition info, chat, and opinion. Also, please let me know what you like, don't like, and want to see more of and less of.

And so, on with the show...??

So how exciting was Monday?

So after years of site selection and evaluation, bid preparation, consortia building, stressing, and a lot of clarifications, we now know who has secured the first lease options in the ScotWind leasing process. So congratulations to the 'winners', and commiserations to those who came up empty hand...this time. But 25GW! 15GW of it floating...wow.

So to recap (as if you've not seen this before):

But what does all this mean?

We in OWC had an excellent day, we supported and helped deliver c20% or 5GW of the successful capacity awarded, floating and fixed, so are delighted for our clients and their teams.

I think this demonstrates the expertise of our teams in writing and supporting developers during bidding processes, it is something we are currently also bringing to processes in Taiwan, the US, and the INTOG round. It is a lot more than LCOE based site selection!

So, if you want help, please make contact!

We have just published a brief reflective blog with some initial analysis on the lease option results. It is well worth a read...the main takeaways:

• The rise of floating wind is incredible, less than 5 years on from the commissioning of HyWind Scotland we have 15GW of floating in the pipeline. The challenge now is realising bankable commercial scale floating wind projects in the next 6 to 10 years. But this pipeline of capacity will push the development at pace.
• ScotWind could unleash upwards of ￡700m of early supply chain investment from the consortia before factoring in match funding. This and more will be needed to fulfil the local content ambitions of all the bidders, this is not a 10GW round, but a 25GW one and that is a lot of capacity needed for all to hit commitments let alone the ambition numbers. So those who spend and engage wisely and early will benefit.
• Ports and harbours. This is a real crunch area, we need the early agreement of what is needed and the investment delivered in time to establish the infrastructure, or what we do have will be taken and projects will look further afield from Scotland for port capacity.
• CfD competition will be an interesting space to watch. We will need to close the gap due to transmission charges and also there may be a price to reach those local content commitments. Closing that gap will need some innovative approaches on top of general competitiveness in a CfD bid with its current focus on price only. Will PPAs feature more prominently?

Read the full analysis here >>> ScotWind: A 15GW Floating Booster Shot

Around 2 weeks ago I authored a look ahead article in LinkedIn, but one that focused on the supply chain development opportunities of ScotWind, and how we managed to get to the point of a UK leasing round with the most promising set of conditions to make a difference.

As I pointed out in the piece, the hard lifting starts now, there will be some strong headwinds; competitive CfD auctions, typical developer fear of inexperienced suppliers, EPCI's and their preferred supply chains, etc. But we have a unique opportunity to transition businesses and establish new ones in the offshore wind, and especially floating wind value chain.

I have had some excellent and challenging comments to the article including:

Mike Blanch of BVG: "That we in the UK don’t tie local economic benefit directly to wind farm revenue and port development like in New York State leaves us far too much room for speculation about what a prize could be."?

Dick Winchester, columnist: "We really do need to look at upping our game in Scotland and move from the "be grateful for what little we get" approach where we think we've been jolly smart at attracting some inward investors such as Vestas or Siemens."

Jonathan Wheatley, of Primo Risk & Control: Will "the tier 1 contractors are making good on their plans and if not what are the ramifications. It seems hard to police but I did notice that the ScotWind requirements seem more robust."

Please contribute to this debate and comment on this article, let's keep the dialogue going!

My article and the discussion show the challenge we face in both meeting those pretty high local content ambitions, and also doing something more than just attracting inward investment, help create a sustainable, globally competitive Scottish offshore wind supply chain. I did not foresee 25GW of capacity being awarded and that will bring a monumental opportunity and sizeable challenges. I will look at this in the months to come.

"The secret of success is to be ready when your opportunity comes." Benjamin Disraeli.

Some recent news from the ABL Group in the offshore wind sector:

1. Appointed owner’s engineer for Korean offshore wind farm >>read more
2. Drive for further geographical expansion >>read more
3. Completes OSD-IMT (ship design company) acquisition (see above image) >>read more
4. New director of major wind projects >>read more
5. Blog - ‘Massive’ amount of work needed to improve ports ahead of offshore wind boom >>read more
6. Meet some of the offshore wind team - Gus Daniels Galle, Project Engineer & Naval Architect >>read more
7. Blog & Panel - Floating Wind’s Opportunity to Taiwanese Industry >>read more / watch panel
8. Blog - Marine Spatial Planning in Asian Offshore Wind >>read more

In next month's Newsletter I will be looking at the US market.

OK...

Now I love coffee, do you? If you are around in Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee or London please direct message or call, lets catch up for a coffee if we can.

Today's coffee ? comes to you from my retail 'go-to' Lavazza, and my Jack & Victor Still Game mug.

I am planning to attend FWS 2022 in Houston 1-3 March and will be in the Houston area and the NE of the US, so let me know if you a catch up for a coffee...or a beer.

And what were your albums of the year, if that is your thing? ?????????? Well, I did warn you, you can ignore the rest, but my top 10 albums of 2021 were:

1. Aenigmatum - Deconsecrate
2. Enforced - Kill Grid
3. Mastodon - Hushed & Grim
4. Trivium - The Court of the Dragon
5. Wode - Burn in Many Mirrors
6. Wombbath - AGMA
7. Abiotic - Ikigai
8. Atrae Bilis - Apexapien
9. URNE - Serpent and Spirit
10. 1914 - Where Fear and Weapons Meet

>>Spotify playlist of top 10 albums.

...you cannot say you were not warned, but if this is your bag and fancy listening to something new, I hope you enjoy it.

Thanks for spending a bit of time reading my first LinkedIn newsletter. Please subscribe and share!

OK, that's me. Stay safe, enjoy life, and catch you next month if we don't speak before.

Cheers

John