SCO Summit 2023

Tomorrow, the virtual session of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of State will take place under the chairmanship of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This landmark event marks the first time an Indian Prime Minister will chair the Heads of States Summit.

The summit is expected to be attended by esteemed leaders, including President Vladimir Putin of Russia, President Xi Jinping of China, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, President Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan, President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan, and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan.

The summit will also witness the participation of Observer States, including Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia. Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, has already announced that Iran will be granted full membership with all rights in the SCO, while Belarus is likely to obtain full-member status as well. However, Mongolia, the SCO's first Observer State since 2004, is yet to apply for full membership within the Eurasian body. Bahrain, Kuwait, Myanmar, the Maldives and the UAE are about to join SCO-led cooperation efforts as new dialogue partners.

Leaders from six international and regional organizations, including the United Nations, ASEAN, CIS, CSTO, EAEU, and CICA, have been extended invitations.

In terms of population and geography, the SCO stands as one of the largest organizations globally, representing nearly 40% of the world's population and covering the entire Eurasian landmass. Furthermore, the SCO member states collectively contribute around 20% of the world's GDP.

Significantly, this region holds substantial reserves, with 25% of global oil reserves, 50% of gas reserves, 35% of coal reserves, and half of the world's uranium reserves located within SCO territories.

With four nuclear powers encompassing a region of profound geopolitical and geostrategic significance, the SCO substantially influences regional security and stability.

The theme for this year's summit is "Towards a SECURE SCO," an acronym coined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 2018 SCO Summit. SECURE represents Security, Economy and Trade, Connectivity, Unity, Respect for Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity, and Environment. These themes have been emphasized during India's chairmanship of the SCO.

Under this chairmanship, India has established new areas of cooperation, such as startups and innovation, traditional medicine, digital inclusion, youth empowerment, and the preservation of shared Buddhist heritage. Additionally, India has worked towards strengthening people-to-people ties that celebrate the historical and civilizational bonds between the member nations.

Various cultural events have been organized under the First Ever SCO Cultural and Tourist Capital framework for 2022-2023. India has hosted 134 events and meetings, including 14 ministerial-level meetings.

India will continue to hold the rotating presidency until September 2023, after which it will be passed on to Kazakhstan. In September 2022, India took over the SCO presidency from Uzbekistan during the Samarkand Summit, assuming a crucial leadership role within the organization.

India has prioritized strengthening people-to-people connections by emphasizing Prime Minister Modi's vision of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (World is one Family). Numerous signature events have been organized to deepen relations under India's SCO chairmanship, including the SCO Film Festival, SCO Millet Food Festival, SCO Cultural Showcase at SurajKund Mela, SCO Tourism Mart, Conference on Shared Buddhist Heritage, B2B Conference on Traditional Medicine, and SCO International Conference of Think Tanks.

The SCO Summit serves as a platform for member states to engage in fruitful discussions and reach significant agreements. During the summit, various bilateral and multilateral meetings will take place, allowing leaders to exchange views on matters of mutual concern. Key outcomes of the SCO Summit include signing important memoranda, agreements, and joint declarations aimed at fostering deeper cooperation in areas such as counterterrorism, trade, infrastructure development, cultural exchange, and environmental protection.

Iran as Permanent Member

Iran has successfully attained full membership status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and actively participates in the SCO Summit 2023. Following the approval of Iran's application for accession to the SCO a year ago, the country has progressed in the membership process by signing a Memorandum of Obligations during the September 15-16 summit held in Samarkand last year. This marks an important milestone for Iran as it embarks on a formal year-long journey to solidify its position as a permanent member of the organization.

The memorandum that Iran has signed outlines the various obligations that member countries are expected to fulfill within the SCO. These obligations include adherence to SCO agreements and treaties, such as the organization's founding charter and its Convention on Combating Terrorism, Extremism, and Separatism. Once Iran meets these requirements, the instruments of accession will be submitted to the SCO Secretariat in Beijing for final approval.

It is worth noting that while the fulfillment of these obligations may appear stringent on paper, the SCO's institutional capacity to enforce decisions is limited. The Secretariat in Beijing and the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure in Tashkent are the two permanent SCO bodies. However, based on the successful accession processes of India and Pakistan, Iran will be the 9th permanent member of the club.

As Iran participates in the SCO Summit, it joins other influential member states such as China and Russia and leaders from neighboring countries like India, Pakistan, and Central Asian nations.

This gathering provides an opportunity for Iran to enhance its regional standing, expand diplomatic ties, and contribute to the discussions on critical regional and global issues. As a permanent member, Iran's presence in the SCO Summit symbolizes its commitment to regional cooperation, security, and economic integration within the SCO framework.

SCO Summit in a Virtual Format

The decision to hold the upcoming SCO summit in a virtual format instead of an in-person gathering has raised questions and sparked speculation. This decision carries significant implications and reflects the evolving dynamics of global geopolitics. While virtual summits have become more common during the COVID-19 pandemic, the choice to forgo a physical gathering raises questions about India's commitment to the SCO and its shifting priorities. While India, the host country, has not provided an official reason for this change, several factors may have influenced this decision.

One possible explanation for this decision is the changing global geopolitical landscape and India's growing alignment with the United States. Prime Minister Narendra Modi just returned back from a "successful" state visit to the US.

As tensions between China and the US continue escalating, India is seeking to continue its engagement within the SCO but in a manner to show a balancing act.

India's closer ties with the US, including its aspirations to be part of a NATO-plus security bloc comprising NATO countries and selected partners, demonstrate its desire for closer alignment with Western powers and access to advanced military technology.

In a significant development preceding the SCO Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi engaged in a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This communication holds great importance due to its timing, occurring shortly after Modi's return from the United States and just before the SCO Summit.

During the conversation, Modi reiterated his stance on resolving the Ukraine conflict through dialogue and diplomacy while also expressing support for Putin's actions during the failed mutiny in Russia on June 24.

The timing of this conversation is notable as it showcases the strategic significance of maintaining strong ties between India and Russia, particularly in the context of the upcoming SCO Summit.

By engaging in direct communication with Putin, Modi aims to reinforce the importance of dialogue and diplomatic efforts in resolving the Ukraine conflict, which has been a major global concern.

This gesture also highlights India's commitment to upholding principles of non-interference and respect for national sovereignty while actively engaging in promoting peaceful resolutions to conflicts.

Looking ahead, the SCO Summit provides an opportunity for member states to address pressing regional and global challenges, including terrorism, extremism, and the establishment of a multipolar international system.

The outcomes of the summit will shed light on the SCO's ability to overcome internal differences and foster substantive cooperation. The summit's virtual format amidst the post-COVID era reflects the evolving nature of international gatherings and the increasing reliance on virtual platforms.

As the region and the globe face a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, the SCO and its member states will continue to play a significant role in shaping regional dynamics.

The future holds potential for further cooperation, economic integration, and diplomatic exchanges within the SCO framework. The SCO Summit serves as a platform for collaboration, dialogue, and the pursuit of common goals, which will have far-reaching implications for regional stability, cooperation, and the evolving dynamics of global politics.

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Dr. Farhat Asif