Scientific Method & the Policy Problem Roadmap
A How-To Guide for Real-World Federal Policy Research
Author: Arushi Sharma Frank Esq.
The Policy Problem Roadmap guides graduate research students in applying scientific discipline to policy problem formulation and resolution:
? Create bounded problem statements
? Ensure research outcomes remain relevant upon publication
? Produce findings immediately applicable to real-world scenarios
- Legislation
- Regulatory comments
- Academic articles
- Policy principles
- Guidance documents, policy issue talking points, educational materials
This article provides a path for policy research students to create a personalized toolkit to develop their policy solutions and bridge academic rigor with practical utility, enhancing the immediate impact of their research in the policy arena.
Steps to Form a Concise, Solvable Policy Problem Statement
1. Formulate a hypothesis
2. Identify control sets and variables
3. Delineate experiment parameters
4. Pursue research-based exercises to generate outcomes which confirm, disprove, or further refine the hypothesis
All Disciplined Policy Problem-Solving is a Scientific Experiement
1. Size the Experiment – Bound the Policy Problem Statement
- Recognize that bounded problems are easier to address
- Acknowledge moving parts at the start of the project
- Develop an idea of controls and variables to bound the problem
2. Select a Timeframe for Testing the Hypothesis/Policy Solution
- Consider that time (the passage of time, the vagaries of the future) is rarely a friend to longstanding policy problems
- Set up the problem to be neutral to time effects, or even benefit from time passage
- Constrain the experiment to a specific period to increase likelihood of proving the hypothesis
3. Identify and Internalize Positive and Negative Externalities
- Recognize externalities as uncontrollable variables impacting experiment outcomes
- Identify both positive and negative externalities
- Incorporate these side effects and consequences into the policy project setup
- "Internalize" externalities by bringing them into the scope of direct project benefits
4. Define a Potential Set of Successful Outcomes without Confirmation Bias
- Guard against confirmation bias
- Acknowledge that disproving the hypothesis may be as useful as proving it
- Aim to show if the hypothesis is a logically possible outcome
- Understand that effective policymaking often involves several concurrent research experiments
领英推荐
I developed a comprehensive roadmap for addressing complex policy problems, offering a structured approach to policymaking and implementation. This roadmap is divided into two main paths:
I. Roadmap A focuses on the feasibility of achieving desired outcomes through primary venues, typically federal-level institutions.
II. Roadmap B explores the utilization of secondary and tertiary venues for achieving policy goals.
In creating this framework, I emphasize the importance of recognizing the multifaceted nature of policy problem-solving. While bounded problems are easier to address, real-world policy challenges rarely have fixed parameters.
This approach encourages the policy researcher to identify both controllable elements and variables at the outset of their projects, creating a more manageable scope for policy initiatives. The practical framing exercise that comes with this step, is essentia for real-world problem-solving as much as it is in researchl: how much of the problem is too much of a bite to really chew in the timeframe you have, with the resources you have to solve for the ultimate solution?
Time is a critical factor in this roadmap. I suggest designing policy solution questions to either neutralize the effects of time or leverage it advantageously. Additionally, I stress the significance of accounting for both positive and negative externalities, internalizing them within the policy framework to mitigate unexpected outcomes.
Furthermore, I underscore the value of disproving hypotheses as much as proving them. This roadmap advocates for an unbiased approach to policy experimentation that guards against confirmation bias and promotes the development of logically sound, effective solutions through iterative research and testing
Tips for Policy Research Students:
Bounded Problems are the Golden Nugget in Policymaking:
? Easier to address, but no policy problem has a perfectly fixed shape
? Acknowledge moving parts at the start of your project
? Develop an idea of controls and variables to bound your problem
The Passage of Time is a Major Factor in Policy Problem-Solving:
? Rarely a friend to longstanding policy problems
? Set up problems to be neutral to time effects
? Consider how passage of time might serve the policy solution
? Constrain experiments to specific periods to prove hypotheses
Externalities Must be Recognized, Bounded, Internalized Where Possible:
? Variables that appear uncontrollable in their impact on experiment outcomes
? Can be positive or negative
? Economic definition: indirect costs or benefits to uninvolved third parties
? "Unpriced" components in a transaction or unexpected outcomes
? Must be recognized and incorporated in policy project setup
? "Internalizing" means bringing them into the scope of direct project benefits
? Aim to eliminate surprise elements and value previously unrecognized benefits
Hypothesis Testing
? Disproving a hypothesis may be as useful as proving it
? Guard against confirmation bias in experiment setup
? Aim to show if the hypothesis is a logically possible outcome
? Negative results can be powerful outcomes to build upon in future experiments
Effective Policymaking in the Real World Looks Like This:
? Comprises several concurrent research experiments
? Collectively drives towards the highest probability of intended effect
? Not about proving hypotheses is unassailable, but exploring logical possibilities and creating "policy wins" on incremental progress milestones
For private seminars and 1:1 research coaching, contact Ms. Sharma Frank via Linkedin Messages at www.dhirubhai.net/in/arushisharmafrank