Science vs greed at COP28

COP28, the big international climate meeting held by the United Nations each year, is still underway in Dubai. The conference wraps up tomorrow, and while a lot has already happened, most of the negotiations don’t conclude until the eleventh hour.?As I?mentioned last week, I am not attending in person, but I’ve been?following the news closely. Here are the highlights – and lowlights – so far.

BREAKING NEWS

On Friday, negotiators released the latest draft of the Global Stocktake agreement they’re hammering out at COP28. A “global stocktake ” is a report card on where things?stand eight years after the Paris?Agreement and where countries go from here. More than 80 countries, including the U.S. and the European Union, are calling for fossil fuels to be phased out completely.??

The latest?draft ?calls on countries to “take actions that could include ... phasing down unabated coal, accelerating efforts towards net zero emissions and low carbon fuels, enhancing efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels, substantially reducing non-CO2 emissions such as methane, and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies."

As I talk about here , “unabated” is what I refer to as a weasel word: it allows fossil fuel producers to weasel out of reductions by promising to capture their carbon at some time in the future (and when they get to that time, they’ll most likely claim it was too expensive/too hard to do what they promised). Not only that, but the health impacts of coal are so severe that we've known for nearly 25 years that phasing it out would have net benefits.

As you can imagine, the precise language to be included on future fossil fuel use is the most contentious issue at COP28 right now. And make no mistake, it is?a huge fight.?

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has written a?letter ?urging members to refuse language on phasing out fossil fuels, writing “It seems that the undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences.” And on Saturday, Russia and Saudi Arabia - two major OPEC members - insisted the language focus on “reducing climate pollution,” not fossil fuel use,?according ?to Reuters .??

In response, I’m one of nearly 2,000 scientific, business, finance, indigenous, youth, and faith leaders who have signed a letter to the COP28 president calling for a rapid response to the Stocktake. “Later is too late,” we told him, urging him to ensure fossil fuel phase-out trajectories are put in place now.?

Stay tuned to my account for updates on how this plays out over the next day.

GOOD NEWS

There are a lot of good things going on at the conference, too. Early on,?Colombia - a leading producer of fossil fuels in South America – and Samoa became the tenth and eleventh countries to endorse the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. This treaty – the brainchild of long-time Canadian climate advocate Tzeporah Berman – is an amazing common-sense concept?that has also been endorsed by faith and youth leaders, a host of cities, and over 3,000 scientists including me. Want to know more? Read this interview Tzeporah Berman did with Inside Climate News this week.?

There have also been a slew of other positive announcements, including Canada putting a cap on emissions from our oil and gas sector requiring companies to cut emissions 38% before 2030; a global commitment from 134 world leaders to account for emissions from food and land use and invest in resilient and sustainable agriculture; another 118 countries committing to triple their renewable energy investment and double investments in efficiency (yay!); and a group of the world’s biggest philanthropies promising $250 million to ocean resilience and ocean-based climate solutions. These are all great examples of the action we need everywhere, from everyone.

NOT-SO-GOOD NEWS

At the same time, though, holding the conference in the petrostate of Dubai has presented a whole host of challenges. The air attendees are breathing is blanketed with smog from burning fossil fuels. According to Human Rights Watch , anti-pollution advocates in the UAE face "unlawful surveillance, arrest, detention and ill-treatment."?

Recently, the COP28 President claimed, in response to a grilling by the indomitable Mary Robinson , that “There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phaseout of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.” Of course, that’s completely false – you can read what six of my colleagues have to say about that here .?

And finally, as the 纽约时报 put it, at COP28 this year was already “Big Oil vs. Science” with the host firmly on the side of the former. Will next year be any better? Thanks to Russia vetoing the conference being held in any country that opposed its invasion of Ukraine, it’s likely that Azerbaijan will be chosen to host next year’s COP29 gathering. That would make it the third big oil and gas producer in a row to host the conference.

WHAT YOU CAN DO

Youth are a big part of the conversation at COP28: last Friday was youth day and there is a youth pavilion that hosts events throughout the conference. I spoke there last time I attended a COP, with these amazing young people from around the world.?

While concern and anxiety over climate change is rising among people of all ages, young people are particularly susceptible: one survey found that 85% of youth surveyed feel worried, sad, anxious, and powerless.

That’s why, with so much about climate in the news this week and next, it’s a key time to be talking about what’s happening – with everyone, but especially with the kids in your life. And I’ve got a great resource you can use: The Nature Conservancy ’s curriculum Nature Lab , which was named one of the Anthem Award finalists just this week.?

Nature Lab is a set of cutting-edge educational resources tailored to ages 5 to 11 , 11 to 14 , and 14 to 18 . It includes lessons you can do at home, as well as classroom curriculum to help kids learn how climate change affects us, how nature functions, and empower them to learn about solutions that work.

This is a rich, free resource you can use yourself and share with your children’s school. It even has a Fall Activity Guide full of good ideas, including making leaf prints and going for a sunset sensory walk. Learn more about Nature Lab in this Q&A with Kate Ireland , TNC’s director of youth engagement.