The Science of Hiring: What Actually Works (and What’s Just Hype) Part 2 of 7

The Science of Predictors - Yes Science is important, keep reading…

Not all hiring methods are created equal. Some are fortunate to be backed by decades of data, while others fall squarely in the “Joe Bloggs influencer says so” category.

1. Cognitive Ability

Cognitive ability (a fancy term for problem solving and logical reasoning skills) has long been the gold standard for predicting job performance. The meta analyses, basically shows a strong correlation between cognitive ability and success across roles.

Why? Because smart people tend to adapt quickly, learn new skills, and handle complexity better.

But hang on cognitive ability isn’t perfect. While it’s a great predictor for technical and problem-solving roles, it doesn’t capture interpersonal skills or cultural fit. Which leads us to this… ??

2. Structured Interviews

Remember last week we discussed Sackett et al. (2022)? Their research reinforced that structured interviews are actually the strongest predictor of job performance. Why? They’re consistent, minimise bias, and focus on job-relevant questions.

For example, if you’re we hiring for a customer service role. Instead of asking random questions like, “What’s your greatest strength?” (yawn), you could ask, “Tell me about a time you de-escalated a conflict with a customer. What steps did you take?” Now you’re starting to dig into the skills that matter. Did tou know Structured interviews can have a predictive validity of 0.51 (Schmidt & Hunter, 1998)

3. Job Specific Assessments

Work sample tests and simulations, where candidates actually perform tasks they’d be doing on the job. They’re highly predictive because they show exactly how someone will perform in a specific context. Remember what we said Context is Key! Always

For example:

• Hiring a coder? Give them a coding challenge.
• Hiring a marketer? Ask them to critique a real campaign.
• Hiring a recruiter? Ask them to create a sourcing strategy.

Work samples are a win-win. Candidates get a sneak peek into the role, and recruiters get clear evidence of capability.

4. Emotional Intelligence or EQ

As roles become more collaborative and cross functional, EQ is gaining traction as a predictor of success. High EQ candidates excel at communication, empathy, and conflict resolution, skills esential in leadership and team based roles. While it’s harder to measure than cognitive ability, tools like situational judgment tests can help.

5. Cultural Fit and Adaptability

More and more research has increasingly highlighted the importance of aligning hires with company culture. It’s not just about hiring people who fit in but also those who can challenge the status quo and drive innovation to challenge. This is where adaptability and values alignment come into play.

“So, which one is best?”

There is not one single predictor. The most effective hiring processes use a combination of these

1. Cognitive ability tests for problem-solving potential.
2. Structured interviews for consistency and fairness.
3. Job-specific assessments for real-world relevance.
4. EQ evaluations for interpersonal excellence.

This layered approach should help you get the right people.

Common Hiring Myths

I love calling out BS so here we go

Personality tests like Myers-Briggs are essential. FALSE: As much as MBTI makes for fun team-building exercises, its predictive power for job performance is about as strong as your star sign. Sorry, Aries.

More interviews = better hires. FALSE: The law of diminishing returns kicks in after 2-3 interviews. Beyond that, you’re wasting time and risking candidate fatigue.

Gut feeling beats data. FALSE: Gut feelings are just biases in disguise. Stick to the evidence.

Why Did I Choose This For Part 2?

Because getting it right is good all round. So understanding predictive hiring methods helps with reduce turnover, improve diversity of thought, and create fairer opportunities for all. And in a world increasingly driven by AI and data, understanding the human factors behind performance has never been more critical. It will also help you with your predictive models in the future as well as how to start rethinking your hiring process.

Coming Up Next: Week 3

Now that we know what predicts success, the next step is designing a hiring process that puts this stuff we just learned or refreshed on into action. Next week, we’ll explore how to build an optimised selection process that balances efficiency, fairness, and candidate experience.

See you next week!

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