SCIA: A New Acronym to Address Future Challenges

by Oliviero Casale

In today’s world, characterized by increasingly complex global challenges, the importance of interpretative models that help understand and manage risk dynamics is becoming evident. Concepts such as VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), RUPT (Rapid, Unpredictable, Paradoxical, Tangled), and BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible) have contributed to describing our transforming reality. However, an analysis of the IRGC document “Involving Stakeholders in the Risk Governance Process” suggests the possibility of introducing a new acronym on par with these: SCIA.

SCIA: A Framework for Understanding and Managing Risks

SCIA represents an innovative approach to risk classification, based on four fundamental categories:

• S – Simple:
• C – Complex:
• I – Uncertain:
• A – Ambiguous:

The Value of SCIA as an Acronym

The introduction of SCIA not only provides a classification of risks but also invites a rethinking of governance strategies. Each category requires a different level of stakeholder involvement and a tailored approach:

• Simple: Information dissemination and application of established solutions.
• Complex: Interdisciplinary dialogues and collaboration among experts.
• Uncertain: Stakeholder engagement to explore precautionary options.
• Ambiguous: Collective deliberation to overcome conflicts and reach consensus.

SCIA: A Practical Model for the Future

The potential applications of SCIA are manifold:

1. Strategic Business Planning: Identifying emerging risks and adopting solutions tailored to their specific nature.
2. Public Governance: Integrating stakeholders and citizens into decision-making processes, enhancing transparency and policy acceptance.
3. Crisis Management: Adapting response strategies based on the risk’s classification.

SCIA as a Compass for Risk Management

Like the VUCA, RUPT, and BANI models, SCIA offers a language and structure for addressing the complexity of our time. Its strength lies in its ability to integrate technical, social, and value-based aspects, proposing solutions that are both effective and inclusive.

In a world where risks are increasingly interconnected and unpredictable, SCIA represents a step forward in understanding and managing future challenges. An acronym that could become central to the global governance lexicon and strategic planning for organizations.